Travel Forecasters See Holiday on Wheels

With the recession and lingering worries about air safety, travel during the Christmas and New Year holidays is expected to be down noticeably from last year. But not on the roads, thanks to exceedingly low gasoline prices.

Overall travel for the holidays nationally is expected to drop 6% from last year, with the vast majority of trips being taken by car, according to a AAA survey released Tuesday. The number of people traveling by air is estimated to fall nearly 20%, or to about 10 million.

By comparison, more than 42 million holiday travelers will be going by car--almost as many as last year.

In Southern California, where average gas prices have fallen to a three-year low of $1.17 per gallon, about 3.4 million residents are expected to take a road trip for the holidays. That’s an increase from last year and means motorists will account for nearly 80% of all travelers during the Christmas and New Year’s Day holidays.

“People really want to drive, camp, hike ... anything that’s easy, close to home and family-oriented,” said Ellen Love, owner of Love 2 Travel, a travel agency and management consulting firm in Denver.

“There’s some good air fares out there, but it’s still hard to compete with these gas prices,” she said.

The overall number of Christmas-New Year’s Day travelers this year is expected to total 53.7 million, according to the AAA survey of 1,300 people. That is about 3.4million fewer than last year and the lowest level since 1993.

“At first blush, it looks like a rosy forecast, especially when you think of the economy and what we’ve been through with fear and” the terrorist attacks, said Rolfe Shellenberger, a travel consultant with Runzheimer International’s Palm Desert office. “But when you put it in the big picture, it’s bad. We still have a long, long way to go.” Still, the air travel projection is an improvement over the 27% drop that was forecast by AAA for Thanksgiving. Officials said the actual numbers for the November holiday turned out to be better, with a 20% drop in air travel reported, and with several major airlines indicating that the load factor, or percentage of seats filled, was in line with or slightly better than last year’s.

“We’re definitely seeing a steady recovery for the industry, and Christmas should be no exception,” said Jerry Cheske, a national spokesman for AAA, which tracks patterns by polling its members about travel plans and destinations. “It’s still down, but we believe that has less to do with [Sept. 11] and more to do with the economy.”

More than 60% of travelers during the holidays plan to stay with a friend or relative, the AAA survey found. About 23% will be staying at a hotel or motel--and roadside lodging places figure to do comparatively well.

Although the AAA survey was seen as positive news for the ailing travel and tourism industry, some travel agents said it’s too early to tell what travelers will do for Christmas, even with less than two weeks to go.

During the week before Thanksgiving, for example, agents were still booking reservations for clients who had waited until the last minute.

And though availability of seats was limited, many people were still able to find good deals.

Before the industry downturn in September, 51% of the customers at LastMinuteTravel.com in Atlanta were booking trips less than 14 days in advance, Chief Executive David Miranda said. That number has since leaped to 82%.