Israel Turns Back Clock on Arafat

Wednesday’s commando-style attacks on Jewish settlers have finally given Israel the grounds it long sought to relegate Yasser Arafat to political oblivion--and may have doomed America’s belated effort to avert an expanded war in the Middle East.

Israel early today severed ties with Arafat, declaring that he essentially no longer exists as far as it is concerned, and launched wide-scale military attacks on Palestinian cities and villages across the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

The action fundamentally alters Israeli dealings with Arafat in ways not seen since the Jewish state and Arafat’s Palestine Liberation Organization recognized each other more than eight years ago.

The attacks, one of which killed 10 Israelis, were among the most audacious assaults in months--and came just as U.S. special envoy Anthony C. Zinni was seeking a 48-hour period of calm as proof that the two sides were serious about defusing tensions. Now, calm is as distant as at any time in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

As Israeli warplanes and helicopter gunships pummel the West Bank and Gaza Strip, Arafat faces a fateful moment. It is very likely that whatever he does in the coming days will be judged by Israel as far too little, far too late.

Israel in recent weeks has been seeking, successfully, to fully delegitimize and discredit Arafat. In the wake of a pair of suicide bombings that killed more than two dozen Israelis in a 12-hour period earlier this month, Arafat’s support in Washington and even Europe was greatly diminished. Wednesday’s attacks--a deadly one by gunmen against a bus in the West Bank and another by suicide bombers against vehicles in the Gaza Strip--clearly represent the last straw.

“A year and a half ago, Arafat had the status of Nelson Mandela; today he is Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden,” said Israeli television commentator Abraham Abramovich. “The question is, at the end of the day, what will become of Arafat and the Palestinian Authority?”

His assessment was not too far off the mark. Arafat appears increasingly ineffective--ignored, even, by many of his own people: the militias and the Islamic factions that have ascended in the last 14 1/2 months of violence.

And if Arafat cannot deliver calm on his side, why should the Americans rely on him?

Arafat argues that he cannot make the arrests that Israel demands at the same time that Israeli fighter aircraft are bombing his police stations and government offices. Such a move would be too unpopular among Palestinians and risk civil war.

Palestinian Leadership Sees Threat From Hamas

Yet, after days like Wednesday, there are growing demands within the Palestinian leadership and among Arafat’s closest associates to take action against Hamas because of the threat it poses to Arafat’s authority. And the Palestinian Authority president has told visitors in recent days that he now believes Hamas is working to undermine him.

Late Wednesday, Arafat ordered the closing of Hamas and Islamic Jihad offices and institutions. But such actions only underscore Arafat’s predicament. Past attempts to arrest or curtail Islamic militants have resulted in mutiny. And if Arafat moves against the charitable agencies, schools and clinics that Hamas operates, then he will infuriate tens of thousands of people who rely on the Islamic social network to survive.

Wednesday’s assaults marked a qualitative escalation in the prowess of Palestinian militants, who appeared to have coordinated and planned the twin ambushes in elaborate detail, as something more than hit-and-run efforts.

Hamas claimed responsibility, delivering a message of its independence--an affront to Arafat at least as much as an atrocity to Israelis. An earlier claim by Arafat’s Fatah movement was disputed. It would have had greater implications, but either way, Israel holds Arafat directly responsible.

Arafat is outflanked by his own extremists while coming under ferocious attack from Israel.

Practically overshadowed in all of this is the Zinni mission. More Israelis and Palestinians have been killed since he arrived 16 days ago than in any similar period in years. Voices of extremism drown out those of potential mediators, like Zinni.

Zinni, a retired U.S. Marine Corps general, was dispatched to the Middle East in the Bush administration’s belated effort to have a role in ending or at least staunching Israeli and Palestinian bloodshed. But editorials and right-wing demonstrators are demanding that he go home. His presence is clearly being ignored by radicals intent on continuing to stir the pot.

Each outburst must be a humiliation for Zinni and make his efforts seem irrelevant. But he may also be the only hope.

“If Zinni leaves, then the last thread that Arafat can hold on to is gone,” said one U.S. official.

American Envoy Still Intent on Cease-Fire

In Washington, the White House and the State Department said Zinni remained committed to working on a cease-fire here. Both called on Arafat to take serious steps against the militants.

Arafat’s Palestinian Authority said it could not be blamed for the attacks. And banishing or removing Arafat is not the answer, several Palestinians argue, because chaos and more terrorism would follow and there would be no credible successor with his authority.

“The Palestinian leadership reiterates that it is working intensively and continuously to restore quiet and security despite the Israeli escalation, the raids and the assassinations [of militants] and the closure imposed on all the Palestinian cities and villages,” the authority said in a statement.

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s government blamed Arafat’s “inaction” for the continued attacks on Jewish settlers and said it will retaliate relentlessly. Repeated airstrikes Wednesday night and early today were the first proof. And then came the diplomatic isolation.

“Arafat is at the end of his rope,” Sharon advisor Danny Ayalon said early today.