A Mandate and Minefield for Berlusconi

As official returns confirmed his coalition’s decisive victory in Italian elections, Silvio Berlusconi, the flamboyant billionaire tycoon, filled the airwaves Monday night with the measured tones of a statesman and humble servant of the people.

There were no self-comparisons with Napoleon, no tirades against Communists, prosecutors, journalists and others on his enemies list. Instead, he sounded unusually solicitous and, by his standards, dull.

Having defeated the leftists who have governed since 1996, Berlusconi is returning to the prime minister’s office with a stronger mandate than most Italian leaders ever get--one he pledges to use to modernize the country with the Midas touch of a man worth $12.8 billion.

But the 64-year-old media magnate is vulnerable and must watch his every step. He has been indicted on charges of tax fraud and bribery of judges. He is under scrutiny for any conflict between his public duties and vast private interests. And he is again at the mercy of a fickle ally whose defection 6 1/2 years ago ended Berlusconi’s previous attempt at governing.

‘He Can Be an Irate Person’

How Berlusconi navigates these obstacles will determine whether Italy remains a solid partner in Europe’s monetary and political union, whose leaders tend to view him as an unsavory interloper, and whether his own country evolves into a more stable democracy.

“He can be an irate person,” says James Walston, professor of political science at the American University of Rome. “If he loses his cool at the wrong time, it could cause some sort of crisis. Will he survive a five-year term? I wouldn’t bet on it.”

The winner’s first steps after Sunday’s election were cautious and low-key.

In remarks taped for broadcast Monday evening, Berlusconi said Italy is “proud to be part of the European Union” and will “work to reinforce those ties.”

“We feel the responsibility of your free choice, and we assure you we will not let you down,” he added.

Nearly complete returns Monday evening gave Berlusconi’s center-right House of Freedoms alliance firm control of both houses of Parliament--177 of 324 seats in the Senate and at least 330 of 630 seats in the lower Chamber of Deputies.

Adding up hundreds of local races, pollsters said Berlusconi’s forces won roughly 45% of the popular vote to about 40% for the center-left Olive Tree coalition led by Rome’s two-term former mayor, Francesco Rutelli.

Rutelli conceded defeat Monday but pledged that his coalition would “work day and night” to force Berlusconi to divest himself of his business empire, which includes Italy’s three biggest private TV networks, its biggest publishing group and the AC Milan soccer team.

“That will be our first real test in opposition,” Rutelli said.

Berlusconi says he is consulting three foreign “wise men” with the aim of offering a conflict-of-interest law within his first 100 days in office.

But he and the center-left have been at odds on the issue, particularly over a bill that would have allowed public servants to entrust their property to family members. Berlusconi, whose two grown children help manage his holding company, supported the bill, but it died in Parliament this year.

Rutelli’s coalition also vows to resist a Berlusconi campaign promise to subject prosecutors, now part of Italy’s independent judiciary, to government control. That effort could reignite a bitter battle that characterized Berlusconi’s short-lived government in 1994.

Prosecutors began probing Berlusconi’s past business practices while he was prime minister. His three subsequent convictions on corruption charges were overturned on appeal. If prosecutors press the two cases still pending, the tycoon-turned-prime minister could hide from prosecution behind his parliamentary immunity or become Italy’s first postwar leader to stand trial while in office.

“It’s not going to be easy for the prosecutors to keep pursuing such a popular figure,” said Franco Pavoncello, political scientist at John Cabot University in Rome, “but they can’t just throw out the cases.”

Perhaps a bigger threat to Berlusconi is Umberto Bossi, the volatile coalition partner whose betrayal brought down Berlusconi’s earlier government. A Berlusconi-inspired tax break that benefited the tycoon’s businesses and an amnesty that freed his brother from prison were factors in Bossi’s defection.

Bossi is still head of the Northern League, an extreme right-wing party whose attacks on illegal immigration border on racism. The league, which once advocated northern Italy’s secession from the poorer south, saw its support cut by more than half in Sunday’s vote, but its 4% showing was still pivotal for the center-right alliance.

Berlusconi insists that he has tied Bossi to a joint program that excludes secession or xenophobia, but it is unclear whether the magnate can control him this time.

‘We Hope It Has Not Been Wasted Sacrifice’

Bossi’s top aide, Roberto Maroni, complained Monday that the compromise with Berlusconi cost the league votes. “We hope it has not been wasted sacrifice,” Maroni added, vowing to hold Berlusconi to a pledge to give more power to local governments. Another right-wing partner, the National Alliance, is cool to such a reform.

Because of his poor showing Sunday, “Bossi’s space to maneuver has been reduced,” said Sergio Romano, a conservative commentator and former ambassador to Russia. “But that doesn’t mean he will stay in line. If he lets Berlusconi govern well, his party will disappear. He may have to destroy the coalition before it destroys him.”

Berlusconi declined to say Monday whether Bossi will get a Cabinet post, but his presence in the coalition only compounds Berlusconi’s image problem on a continent largely governed by left-leaning politicians.

His election got a cool reception in much of Europe. The best many leaders could say was that Berlusconi’s coalition is not as racist as Joerg Haider’s far-right Freedom Party in Austria and will not by itself prompt the EU to slap sanctions on Italy as it did on Austria last year when Haider joined the government.

“The Italian people have spoken democratically,” said French Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine. “But we are watching closely what this government will be and what it will do.”

Because the EU’s 15 countries are more closely knit than they were during Berlusconi’s first term, his legal troubles and potential conflicts of interest will be of more concern to Italy’s neighbors. Because of Europe’s common currency, his business empire is more of a player on the continental stage.

“Suspicion will condition his relations with Italy’s partners,” Walston said. “Other European leaders aren’t going to be rude to him, but they’ll look at every decision he and his ministers make, in light of his business interests, and ask why are they doing it.”