Keeping a Giant in Check

The recent downing of a U.S. reconnaissance plane and the arrest of an American academic on spy charges have brought China back into the American public’s focus. Suddenly people who may not have fretted about China since the Vietnam War remember a concern that foreign policy analysts could never afford to forget: When the world’s most populous nation decides to get assertive, it may become a threat.

American planners know that the most likely long-term strategic threats to international stability and U.S. interests will probably come from Asia, where India and especially China are becoming stronger military powers and are likely to seek increased regional influence. High among Washington’s concerns is that a stronger and more self-confident China will work to undercut American influence in the Western Pacific. The Bush administration--the Pentagon in particular--is looking closely at that possibility. So is academia.

A new report from the Rand Corp. urges Washington to develop a strategy aimed at dampening the rivalries and insecurities that threaten Asian stability. A key goal, says the report, is to prevent the rise of any single state capable of regional domination. China, given its history, ambitions and steady military buildup, is the most likely candidate. But “a critical U.S. objective must be to avoid making an enemy of China.”

The Rand study proposes that the United States adopt tactics to both contain and engage China. On Taiwan, the most likely flash point between the two countries, Washington should be firm in opposing any use of force by Beijing. It should make clear at the same time that it opposes a Taiwanese declaration of independence, a step that would be virtually certain to provoke a belligerent response.

Rand recommends encouraging a balance-of-power strategy among Asia’s strongest nations, aimed at keeping any one of them from achieving dominance. Regional stability would also be furthered by deepening bilateral alliances with traditional allies and encouraging enhanced security cooperation. The report specifically mentions greater cooperation between South Korea and Japan, though without noting Korea’s residual fear--the product of 40 years of brutal Japanese occupation--of a rebirth of Japanese militarism.

Overall, the prescription is sound. The challenge will come in implementing it. To assure its continuing influence the United States must maintain strong military forces in the Pacific, which could mean seeking new base rights, especially in South Asia. To protect its forces from weapons China is developing, such as longer-range surface-to-surface missiles, could mean depending less on carrier forces and more on long-range, land-based bombers and long-range precision-guided weapons. This is already a subject of intense debate in the U.S. defense establishment.

Conflict in East Asia involving U.S. forces is by no means inevitable. Prudent military planning and adequate force deployment would help prevent it. The major American interests in Asia are to promote trade and economic development, encourage democratization and help safeguard U.S. allies and friends from threats and aggression. Fostering those goals will take tact as well as resolve, diplomacy and military power. As President Bush likes to say, it will take “humility,” along with measured self-assurance.