Taliban Foes’ Big Risk

The speed with which the Taliban government that usurped power in Afghanistan crumbles continues to amaze. There now seems a good chance of its withdrawal from the southern Afghanistan city of Kandahar, which would increase the possibility of a peaceful rebuilding of the nation by giving the dominant ethnic group, the Pushtuns, a power base.

A Taliban exodus would reduce the need for bombing by U.S. warplanes during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan. It would also make it easier for relief supplies, especially food, to be delivered to the south.

If Taliban fighters follow through on the reported offer of their leader, Mullah Mohammad Omar, to surrender Kandahar, the organization’s spiritual center, it will mean that the regime that has ruled the nation for five years has ceased to govern.

Taliban soldiers no doubt will remain to fight, probably in Afghanistan’s forbidding mountains, but the ouster of the Taliban government reduces protection for the Al Qaeda terrorist network and its leader, Osama bin Laden.

The Northern Alliance, enemies of the Taliban but ethnic rivals of non-Taliban Pushtuns, seized the northern cities of Mazar-i-Sharif and the capital, Kabul. Unfortunately, the alliance continues to resist the U.S.-led coalition’s attempts to get it to talk with Pushtuns about the makeup of a post-Taliban government. That’s unacceptable. However, if Pushtuns control Kandahar, the country’s second-largest city, they can bargain from strength with the Northern Alliance about forming a broad-based government.

An inclusive regime is needed to avoid ethnic warfare and reduce meddling by neighboring nations, such as Pakistan and Iran. The government is likely to be decentralized, with Tajiks and Uzbeks having more power in cities in the north and Pushtuns stronger in the south. That’s fine, so long as the central government is formed through talks, not violence.

Another important development is the reported killing of Mohammed Atef, a top aide to Bin Laden believed to have masterminded the Sept. 11 terror attacks on New York and Washington. The report and the Taliban flight from the cities underscore the statement of Gen. Tommy Franks, the commander of American military operations in Afghanistan, that U.S. troops are “tightening the noose” around Taliban leaders and their Al Qaeda allies.

It is uncertain whether native Afghan members of the Taliban are ready to wage an all-out civil war; non-Afghan members of Al Qaeda--primarily from Arab countries and Pakistan--may try to continue fighting.

The Soviets lost Afghanistan to determined guerrilla fighters, but under very different conditions. Many Afghans supported the guerrillas with food, shelter and more during the 1979-1989 Soviet occupation. The moujahedeen also benefited from U.S. weapons, advice and funds. Now, by contrast, the fleeing Taliban is unlikely to have much support inside or outside the country.

The Northern Alliance has steadily defeated the Taliban on the ground. But it does not have the trust of enough Afghans to rule on its own. The quickest way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory would be for it to even try.