Bin Laden’s Endgame Will Be Shrouded in Martyrdom

It is time to consider Osama bin Laden’s endgame. As his living space becomes progressively narrowed, what are the consequences for the U.S. of his capture or demise?

The answers to this may lie in Bin Laden’s psychic makeup, the remaining capabilities of his forces and the actions of his enemies.

The Bin Laden case is reminiscent of attempts by U.S. intelligence during World War II to depict scenarios of Hitler’s last days. Gen. “Wild Bill” Donovan, head of the Office of Strategic Services, asked Harvard professor Walter Langer to draw Hitler’s psychological profile in order to predict his behavior as the Third Reich collapsed around him.

Langer’s study, later published as a book titled “The Mind of Adolph Hitler,” correctly predicted the Nazi leader’s suicide. Such an outcome is not probable in Bin Laden’s case, because, in his vision of Islam, suicide is not permissible unless it brings harm to the enemy.

To the extent that Bin Laden will be capable of determining the modality of his own demise, he is likely to be motivated by three factors: the quest to leave an earthly legacy for his followers, to fulfill his self-perceived duty as an instrument of divine will and to trigger a final act of terrorist revenge against his U.S.-led enemies.

In Bin Laden’s view, his final acts on Earth will determine his place in Islamic history and in the memories of Muslims, as well as ensure his rewards in heaven.

Consequently, when attempts to hide or escape fail, Bin Laden might seek martyrdom battling his enemies, rather than be captured by them. Or, if capture is imminent, he will order a companion to kill him.

Indeed, to Bin Laden’s way of thinking, it might be that his martyrdom is necessary to sustain his movement after he’s gone and ensure his own divinely ordained faith mission. How else to explain Bin Laden’s lifetime commitment to violence against powerful foes but as a conscious and persistent quest for martyrdom?

The most immediate U.S. concern in Bin Laden’s endgame should be the possibility of a last attempt to mount a major act of terrorism, either by conventional means or by using weapons of mass destruction. In this context, apocalyptic threats made by Bin Laden and Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar should not be discounted.

However, the finale of the Bin Laden tragedy could have additional serious repercussions. From the perspective of his foes, it might be best if Bin Laden was killed in battle with the Afghans rather than by U.S. forces, because the blowback from his death caused by “infidels” could trigger greater violence against U.S. targets.