Taliban Foes Detail Plans to Seize Kabul

Assessing the military situation on the ground after a week of U.S. airstrikes, anti-Taliban forces in Afghanistan said Saturday that they expect to be in control of the capital before Ramadan, the Muslim holiday about a month away.

But their plans to capture Kabul hang on U.S. bombing of the Taliban’s front-line positions, which they say they anticipate in coming days.

With delicate negotiations underway about the kind of government that would replace the extremist Islamic regime in Afghanistan, Abdullah, the foreign minister for the opposition Northern Alliance, spelled out the rebels’ plans for control of the capital.

In an interview with The Times on Saturday, he said the only way to dislodge the Taliban is a major assault by the Northern Alliance to break through the front line north of Kabul.

After that was accomplished, a Northern Alliance security commission, with representatives of the army, police and internal security, would immediately move in to Kabul to fill the vacuum left by the Taliban and enforce law and order, he said.

All this, he predicted, would be in place by the beginning of the holy month of Ramadan, which begins in mid-November.

“The situation could change very quickly. I don’t see the possibility of Taliban resistance keeping everybody out of Kabul for a long time,” Abdullah said. “If they’re defeated on the front line, they’ll withdraw from Kabul very soon.”

Abdullah said it would take 48 hours to mobilize 10,000 men for an attack on Kabul. He warned that the initial military force in the city might need to be substantial to deter any Taliban counterattack.

“One should be prepared for it,” he said. “One should be prepared for all scenarios.”

Abdullah also warned of an administrative vacuum after the fall of the Taliban and said the former United Front government that he represents, which still retains Afghanistan’s U.N. seat, would be appropriate to administer in the short term--a solution unlikely to be acceptable to the country’s largest ethnic grouping, the Pushtun.

The Taliban draws much of its support from Pushtuns; the Northern Alliance is dominated by members of the country’s ethnic Uzbek and Tajik minorities.

Asked whether the Northern Alliance would move out of the city if a U.N. peacekeeping force was sent in, Abdullah said the United Nations does have a role to play in peacekeeping or reconstruction. But he insisted that the U.S. and its allies must discuss the question with forces in Afghanistan.

“They should have started discussions with us,” he said.

Rejecting Taliban claims that the regime’s forces had launched attacks on Northern Alliance positions in recent days, Abdullah asserted that the Taliban is no longer capable of launching counterattacks. He said the Taliban is short of supplies and ammunition and has lost its air capacity and command systems because of the U.S. strikes.

The main supply line from Kabul to the north was severed when more than 1,000 Taliban fighters swapped sides in recent days and cut off an important road.

Northern Alliance commanders have complained that U.S. airstrikes haven’t hit the Taliban hard enough, but Abdullah said the bombing campaign has been effective.

“They’re doing the right thing so far,” he said.

Explaining his view that the Taliban would fall quickly, Abdullah said Taliban fighters nightly move as close as possible to the front line north of Kabul. U.S. strikes against the front line, he said, would kill hundreds of Taliban fighters, making it easier to penetrate the front line and approach Kabul.

Abdullah denied reports that the Northern Alliance had made a deal with the U.S. not to attack Kabul until a political solution was reached and said America had sought no such agreement.

“There has not been any demand. There has not been any request. There has not been any pressure,” he said. “We will not bow to any pressure.

“In this country, superpowers like the Soviet Union and mini-superpowers like Pakistan have all tried to impose a solution on Afghanistan. No country should try to do that.”

Abdullah pointedly noted that Russia had been a more supportive ally to the Northern Alliance than the U.S., and he warned against attempts to impose a solution on Afghanistan that suited the interests of Pakistan but not Afghans.

He several times expressed thinly veiled disdain for the role of the former king, Mohammad Zaher Shah.

“It’s not up to the king. We’re paying with our lives in this struggle against terrorist groups. We dedicated ourselves to this country. It’s not for someone outside this country to make the decisions,” he warned, although he said the king--who lives in exile outside Rome--could play a part in the process.

The Northern Alliance has agreed to proposals for a 120-member Supreme Council for National Unity, half selected by the king and half from within Afghanistan, to convene a traditional loya jirga, or grand council, of Afghans. The loya jirga would have a mandate to form a provisional government to run the country for two years.

But Abdullah said that the balance of the Supreme Council for National Unity is highly sensitive and that there is still a lot of work to be done on its composition.

Given the impatience of Northern Alliance commanders to push through the Taliban front line, Abdullah’s comments appear to raise questions as to whether the council would be in place, as planned, before the Northern Alliance forces moved into Kabul.