If the Past Is Any Guide, These Five Picks Are Promising

You can’t judge an album by its cover any more than you can a book, but you can rely on an artist’s reputation in helping decide which albums are worth special attention. This fall’s pop lineup is highlighted by works from some artists with especially strong reputations.

Here are the five most promising releases from the multitude of upcoming releases--the albums that would go into my CD player immediately upon arrival:

* Bob Dylan’s “Love or Theft” (Columbia). There’s no guesswork involved with this album because it’s already in stores--and it’s a more than worthy follow-up to “Time Out of Mind,” the 1997 album that was the singer-songwriter’s most acclaimed collection in 20 years. (See story, Page 5.) Unlike the somber “Mind,” this is a jubilant collection of diverse pop-rock musical strains and an explosion of sometimes thoughtful, sometimes humorous imagery.

* Macy Gray’s “The Id” (Epic). On her debut album, 1999’s “On How Life Is,” and in concert, Gray emerged as not only one of the most imaginative new pop-soul artists, but also one of the most captivating personalities. In the new collection, due Tuesday, she again offers vintage soul, funk and rock strains that are so pure they seem channeled from another age. (See Record Rack, Page 65).

* Elton John’s “Songs From the West Coast” (Universal). John has been erratic for a while on record, but here he and lyricist Bernie Taupin return to the warm, stripped-down sound of their earliest works--and it’s inviting indeed. Due Oct. 2.

* R.L. Burnside’s “Burnside on Burnside” (Fat Possum/Epitaph). The Mississippi veteran’s show earlier this year at the House of Blues was a marvelous reminder of the glory days of the blues, and there’s every reason to suspect this live album will be just as rewarding. Due Oct. 23.

* Shelby Lynne’s “Love, Shelby” (Island). It took a decade for this great country-soul singer from Alabama to find herself on record, but she did it with such gut-wrenching effect on last year’s “I Am Shelby Lynne” that she won the Grammy for best new artist. Here she teams up with writer-producer Glen Ballard for a less-intense but still potent collection of tunes, including a gutsy rendition of John Lennon’s “Mother.” Due Nov. 13.

The wild card this fall, of course, is the first Michael Jackson album in six years. Although boldly titled “Invincible,” the collection may be Jackson’s last hurrah, unless it revives the dynamics of his “Thriller” days. The first single, the pedestrian “You Rock My World,” is not a good sign, but executives at Epic Records swear they are confident about the overall package. Due Oct. 30.

Live

These dates are circled on my calendar: PJ Harvey, the soul-stirring English singer-songwriter, Friday at the Hollywood Palladium; Elvis Costello and the Charles Mingus Orchestra, Sept. 28 at Royce Hall; Iceland’s Sigur Ros, Oct. 5-6 at the Wilshire Theatre; Bob Dylan, Oct. 14 at UC Santa Barbara, Oct. 17 at UC San Diego and Oct. 19 at Staples Center; the cocky Strokes, Oct. 18 at the Palace; the All Tomorrow Parties series hosted by Sonic Youth (and featuring Eddie Vedder, among others), Oct. 19-21 at UCLA; the irrepressible Bjork, Oct. 22 at the Dorothy Chandler Pavilion; and Travis, Oct. 23 at Universal Amphitheatre.