The Cassandra Curse

We were stunned. Shocked. Terror on such a vast scale here in the U.S. had seemed unthinkable. But the warnings were out there had we chosen to hear, issued by a small band of terrorism experts and their acolytes. They wrote best-selling books and popular magazine articles. They conducted hearings and reported to Congress. They joined the dialogue in academic journals and on university faculties. While none warned specifically of commercial airliners being commandeered as human-packed missiles, they did beg us to take seriously what one writer labeled the looming “big, terrible thing.” But like Cassandra of Greek myth, who predicted the disaster that a large wooden horse would bring upon Troy, they were destined to be ignored. Here we have collected some of the unheeded warnings of our modern Cassandra’s, along with their thoughts today. ( Compiled by Patricia Brown)

Then

Three billion men, and it takes only half a dozen bright and evil ones to harness and deploy.

What are the odds it will happen? Put it another way: What are the odds it will not? Low. Nonexistent, I think.

When you consider who is gifted and crazed with rage...when you think of the terrorist places and the terrorist countries...who do they hate most? The Great Satan, the United States. What is its most important place? Some would say Washington. I would say the great city of the United States is the great city of the world, the dense 10-mile-long island called Manhattan, the city that is the psychological center of our modernity, our hedonism, our creativity, our hard-shouldered hipness, our unthinking arrogance.

If someone does the big, terrible thing to New York or Washington, there will be a lot of chaos, and things won’t be working so well anymore.

The psychic blow will shift our perspective and priorities, dramatically, and for longer than a while. Something tells me more of us will be praying.

-- From “There Is No Time, There Will Be Time,” a piece by Peggy Noonan in Forbes, November 1998.

Now

It feels bad to be right. It isn’t like saying “The Dow will be at 11,000 in 2000” and you’re right and you get high fives. I have been talking about and thinking about The Big Bad Thing for many years, as have a number of people. But it’s funny--Americans are so sunny by nature that they have trouble hearing warnings. Maybe it’s this simple: people take action when they think they can affect things. When they think they can’t, they don’t. World terrorism was too big to get our attention--until now.

-- Peggy Noonan

Then

We now face distinct possibilities of mass civilian murder the likes of which have not been seen since World War II. The specter of terrorism carries with it the threat of violence aimed at targets merely because of their religious, ethnic or national identities.... The absence of bombs going off more regularly should not lull us into a false sense of security. The presence of foreign terrorist groups means that they have the capabilities of launching attacks here and the ability. It is a matter of vital national interest to hold hearings on the presence of foreign terrorist groups on American soil.

-- Excerpt from a statement by terrorism expert Steven Emerson before the Senate Judiciary’s Subcommittee on Terrorism, Technology and Government in February 1998

Now

The fact that [the hijackers] could go to flight school in the United States, they could live in communities, rent safe houses, rent mailboxes across the street from CNBC; the fact that they could get away with it and not have one scintilla of evidence come to the attention of the FBI shows that they are deeply adept at coming in below our radar screen. And that means we have to improve our intelligence.

--Steven Emerson, speaking to CNBC the day after the hijackings

Then

[America will become] increasingly vulnerable to hostile attack on our homeland, and our military superiority will not entirely protect us. Americans will likely die on American soil, possibly in large numbers.

-- Conclusion of the U.S. Commission on National Security in the 21st Century, Fall, 1999

Now

This conclusion...was followed, on Jan. 31, 2001, with recommendations to President Bush and his Cabinet to create a National Homeland Security Agency Had such an agency been created, could this disaster have been prevented? We will never know. But its mandate to collect human intelligence, to identify likely perpetrators, to apprehend those same perpetrators, and to coordinate disaster relief efforts, would have given us a much better chance.

-- Former U.S. Sen. Gary Hart, U.S. Commission on National Security in the 21st Century co-chair, writing in the Times of London on Sept. 13, 2001

Then

A federal jury in New York returned a guilty verdict against the four defendants accused of plotting the terrorist bombing of the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. The successful prosecution of these murderers represents a great victory .... Unfortunately, the trial does almost nothing to enhance the safety of Americans. The Al Qaeda group, headed by the notorious Osama bin Laden, will barely notice the loss of four operatives. Indeed, recent information shows that Al Qaeda is...planning new attacks on the U.S.

-- From “Terrorism on Trial,” an Op-Ed in The Wall Street Journal by Daniel Pipes (with Steven Emerson). Published on May 31, 2001

Now

Militant Islamic violence against Americans began in 1983 and has continued steadily every few months since, taking many hundreds of lives. Unfortunately, the U.S. government’s anti-terrorism policy through this long era has been limited to the sort of trial described above, which, even if successful, is entirely ineffective at deterring further attacks. Let us hope that the atrocities on Sept. 11 will prod the government and public to become newly serious about protecting Americans from this foul aggression.

-- Daniel Pipes

Then

Many of America’s most vital industries and resources are vulnerable to terrorist attack. With little experience of violence in the United States, Americans tend to feel safe within their borders and so have not taken the precautions needed to ensure domestic safety The U.S. will remain vulnerable until a major target is hit.

-- From “American Renaissance,” by Marvin Cetron and Owen Davies, published in 1986

Now

The attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon are models for the future: They killed as many people as possible, in the most dramatic manner available. The terrorist weapon for the 21st century is not a bomb or gun, but the minicam. The timing of the World Trade Center attack--the second plane hitting when cameras would catch it to best effect--shows both the professionalism and the dramatic sense of the terrorists. We can expect future attacks to be equally bloody, while providing great footage for CNN.

Defending against this new brand of terror will require fundamental changes in American policy. We need not only spy satellites, but spies. We will not only capture terrorists and bring them to trial, but assassinate them. In the past, we have criticized Israel for its ruthless focus on national security. In the future, we will become Israel.

-- Marvin Cetron

Then

A hit squad from somewhere in the Middle East travels to New York City carrying a one-liter bottle filled with one of the several chemical weapons agents we have long known Saddam Hussein to be developing. Using a simple sprayer...they diffuse the contents into the air over Times Square on a Saturday night or into the main concourse at Grand Central Station at 5:30 on a weekday evening. Hundreds, maybe thousands of people die agonizing deaths as a result.... Is there a defense against such an event? Probably not Imagine the televised scenes from hospital emergency rooms overwhelmed by victims, the weeping relatives, and then the shots of anti-American demonstrators in Baghdad dancing with glee in the streets.)

-- From “The Greatest Threat,” by Richard Butler, former U.N. chief inspector in Iraq, published in 2000

Now

I didn’t foresee that the weapon of choice would be commercial airliners piloted by people willing to commit suicide. But the effects were virtually identical to those described in my book.

I accept that these terrible enemies must be punished, but fear that if the punishment is seen to be excessive, with large-scale civilian deaths in countries attacked, then support for action against terrorism may vanish. Worse, the sick, demonic picture of the U.S., which is held by the terrorists and their supporters, will gain wider acceptance. It must also be feared that there could be terrorist actions in response to U.S. military action, and the next round might include other weapons, especially chemical or biological.

-- Richard Butler

Then

The face of terrorism has changed. Acts by nationalist-separatist groups and social revolutionary groups designed to call attention to the cause have been replaced by acts by transnational entities where no credit is claimed. There has been a tendency to increasing lethality. One explanation for this finding is that more dramatic acts are required to capture public attention.

But another explanation may be found in the changing nature of the groups. Religious terrorism has been on the rise. There has been a rise in radical fundamentalists in all faiths, as well as emergence of new groups. Religious terrorism, as illustrated by the bombing of the World Trade Center [in 1993]...is judged to be particularly dangerous. The perpetrators are killing in the name of God.

-- From the International Conference on Aviation Safety and Security in the 21st Century; the executive summary on security and terrorism by Jerrold M. Post, a political psychologist at George Washington University

Now

What is particularly chilling is to understand that these are perfectly normal individuals. I’ve just finished a study, interviewing 35 incarcerated Middle Eastern terrorists, including about 18 radical Islamists. And what is very striking is their normality.... They have been led to subordinate their individuality to a radical clerical leader who tells them that this is not only not immoral, it is a sacred requirement, an obligation.

This is really a war for people’s minds Bombs and missiles are not going to lead people to be afraid who are willing to give up their lives. The real issue is how do we take alienated youth in the Arab world and persuade them, help lead them to the path of moderate political activism rather than feeling that the only path is to give their lives for their causes.

-- Jerrold M. Post in an interview with Canada AM’s Rod Black on Sept. 17

Then

“Terrorism is the Siamese Twin of advancing technological democracy. As such, it cannot but escalate in the next [21st] century.”

“Terrorism...is the least understood of all contemporary plagues. One reason for that is our unsuitable emotional response to its [actions]...Anger keeps us from effectively confronting a menace which is driven far more by political than criminal impulses. Then there is... our reluctance to accept the fact that our huge defense machine can be challenged at all by such small capabilities as the terrorists command. We forget that (the terrorists) principal capabilities are in the psychological area...every one of their shots is ‘heard around the world.”’

-- Excerpts from various 1999 papers by Konrad Kellen--a private consultant on international affairs and terrorism

Now

“Terrorism” is the war by the weak against the strong. But that does not mean the strong will win. Like their opponents, the strong can win only pyrrhic victories; neither can win the war. Our century will therefore see an escalation of armed violence and counterviolence. Whether for us to be tough or “reasonable” in dealing with terrorists is an idle question. Terrorism is fuelled by either response.

“Terrorism” cannot be brought to an end because every building and every person in America is a lucrative target, and only a tiny portion of such targets can be “hardened.” Terrorists have the choice of targets, but have not the choice of the psychological effects of their actions. We have that choice and should use it well.

Our task, then, is primarily a psychological one: to frustrate the terrorists by not being terrorized.

-- Konrad Kellen

Then

The consequences of international terrorism may go far beyond anything yet accomplished by the terrorists themselves We are approaching an age in which national governments may no longer monopolize the instruments of major destruction. It will not be possible to satisfy the real or imagined grievances of all the little groups that will be capable of large-scale disruption and destruction or to defend everybody against them Warfare will have to be redefined. So will our ideas of what national defense means.

-- From “International Terrorism: A New Mode of Conflict,” by Brian M. Jenkins, published in 1975

Now

We are at war with terrorism. It promises to be a long campaign. We must anticipate further terrorist attacks against Americans, abroad and here. Terrorists will use whatever capabilities they have, making no distinction between soldiers and civilians. We are all on the frontline. The survival of our democracy depends on our courage, our resolve, continued dedication to our ideals of a free society, realism in the acceptance of risk, stoicism, tolerance, humanity and the sense of community that we have expressed since Sept. 11. Our very peril will make us better than we were.

-- Brian M. Jenkins, senior advisor to the president of the Rand Corp., and a specialist on terrorism for the past several decades

Then

I can’t close this chapter without addressing the special problems of America’s greatest and most vulnerable city, New York.

Manhattan is a narrow island, cut off from the rest of the United States by several bridges and four tunnels .... Viewing the Manhattan skyline is to see one of the wonders of the world. To a trained counterterrorist, it is a frightening image of too many high-gain, cost-effective targets for terrorists to aim at.

-- “The War Against the Terrorists,” by Gayle Rivers, published in 1986. (Rivers could not be reached for comment)