Johannesburg Likely for Derby

Johannesburg, the Irish-based colt who won last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile but has never run beyond seven furlongs except in that race, is headed for the Kentucky Derby, based on comments made by his trainer, Aidan O’Brien, to two European publications.

“Our 3-year-olds can’t all run in the 2000 Guineas,” O’Brien was quoted in the Racing Post, referring to the race in England on May 4, same day as the Derby. “We are very close to making a decision, but if everything went well in the meantime, we would have to go.”

O’Brien has hired Jerry Bailey, the rider who has won the Derby twice, to ride Castle Gandolfo, another of the trainer’s horses who would run in the Derby. Mick Kinane, who has ridden Johannesburg in all his races, including the Breeders’ Cup win at 11/16 miles on dirt at Belmont Park in October, will continue to ride that colt.

“It looks likely that both horses will go to Kentucky,” O’Brien told the Irish Times.

Johannesburg won all six starts last year, culminating in the Belmont win that led to his being voted the best 2-year-old male in North America. A rainy Irish winter slowed his progress as a 3-year-old, however, and in his only start this year he was nosed out by a good 4-year-old filly, Rebelline, in a seven-furlong grass race at the Curragh near Dublin on April 7. The Breeders’ Cup has been Johannesburg’s only race on dirt.

O’Brien, the perennial leading trainer in Ireland, has three or four other 3-year-olds lined up to run in the 2000 Guineas, which is the first race in the English Triple Crown.

Despite his record, Johannesburg’s ability to negotiate the Derby distance of 11/4 miles has been questioned. U.S. horses usually prep for the Derby with two or more races as 3-year-olds. The last horse to win the Derby off only one 3-year-old prep was Bold Venture in 1936.

Johannesburg probably would make the seven-hour flight to Kentucky about a week before the Derby. Because Churchill Downs doesn’t maintain a year-round quarantine station, the colt would have to spend about 48 hours at Keeneland, 70 miles away, while his blood work is processed by a federal laboratory in Iowa.