Tension With China Defused, Taiwanese Say

Hurried damage control by Taiwan appears to have contained the latest flare-up in the island’s troubled relations with mainland China, Taiwanese officials say.

By canceling a long-planned military exercise, sending a senior official to Washington to reassure the Bush administration that Taiwan is not moving stealthily toward independence, and taking other steps short of apologizing, the government in Taipei appears to have soothed tempers in Washington and Beijing.

“I think the situation has already calmed down,” said Taiwan’s chief government spokesman, Chuang Suo-hang.

But the tension after Taiwan’s president declared that the island was a “sovereign state” was a reminder that the simmering conflict over the island Beijing considers a renegade province could reach a dangerous flash point in the complicated relationship among the U.S., China and Taiwan.

And the Bush administration’s silence on the matter seems to have fanned speculation about what the blowup might portend.

The crisis erupted this month when Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian unleashed a verbal broadside that enraged mainland Chinese authorities and clearly startled U.S. policymakers.

Addressing a group of staunch Taiwanese nationalists in Japan on Aug. 3 via video link, Chen rejected the idea that Taiwan might one day be absorbed into mainland China as a quasi-autonomous region, much like Hong Kong and Macao, “because Taiwan is an independent, sovereign state.”

“Simply put,” he added, “with Taiwan and China on each side of the [Taiwan] Strait, each side is a country. This needs to be clear.” Chen concluded with a hint that he might back a national referendum on the issue.

His comments seemed to hit every sensitive button within Beijing’s Communist hierarchy, which believes that Taiwan should rightfully be under mainland control. Chen’s words carried additional weight because they were so unexpected.

Although his Democratic Progressive Party officially favors independence, Chen had earlier gone out of his way to ease mainland worries since his election more than two years ago. In his May 2000 inaugural address, he pledged to neither declare independence--unless mainland military forces attacked the island--nor to seek a referendum on the issue.

Chen’s recent speech ended months of softer statements from both capitals and growing signs that the two longtime adversaries were gradually edging toward exploratory talks to open direct telecommunication, cargo and transport links across the Taiwan Strait. Contacts between Beijing and Taipei, always arduous, have been virtually frozen since Chen’s predecessor, Lee Teng-hui, angered Beijing with a statement that relations between Taiwan and the mainland should be conducted like those of two independent states.

Just why Chen fired his verbal salvo remains unclear, although political observers note that he has received heavy criticism from party hard-liners for policies seen as conciliatory toward Beijing that have yielded little in response.

With important mayoral elections scheduled for this year and a presidential election due in 2004, Chen may have wanted to make at least one appeal to a constituency he has largely alienated since taking office.

Or, some suggest, Chen may have given in to the irresistible temptation to “push the envelope,” to see just how much independence would be tolerated by a friendly Bush administration that has expressed deep suspicions about China’s military buildup and possible use of force against Taiwan.

Whatever the reasons, the reaction to his remarks was immediate.

Beijing’s media denounced Chen as untrustworthy, politically naive and a man embarked on a course that would “bring Taiwan into disaster.” As Taipei’s stock market plunged and Taiwan’s key ally--the United States--stammered for an explanation, Chen’s government moved swiftly to contain the damage.

Taiwan’s most senior official dealing with cross-strait relations, Mainland Affairs Council Chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen, said that the president’s speech was not a policy shift and that the government still favors dialogue with Beijing. Democratic Progressive Party Secretary-General Chang Chun-hsiung said Chen had told a meeting of party officials that “my comments were oversimplified and may have caused misunderstanding.”

A long-planned but potentially provocative Taiwanese anti-submarine military exercise was abruptly canceled, and Tsai was dispatched to Washington in an attempt to ease U.S. concerns. And at subsequent public appearances, including a political rally last weekend, Chen has passed up the chance to repeat his comments.

On the economic front, the government announced Friday that it would begin approving applications by Taiwanese microchip producers wanting to invest on the mainland. Although largely symbolic--Taiwanese chip producers have tended to ignore restrictions on such investments--the move was viewed as politically significant.

The collective result of these actions has been a surprisingly swift reduction in the level of tension across the strait since the first days after Chen’s speech.

Some analysts in Taipei are convinced that the timing of Chen’s comments was carefully chosen and also helped dampen reactions.

For example, Andrew Yang, director general of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies in Taipei, argued that Chen picked a time when China is preoccupied with its leadership succession, the U.S. is busy with its war on terrorism, and neither is interested in a new spat over Taiwan. Chinese President Jiang Zemin’s scheduled visit to the U.S. this fall is another reason to avoid a confrontation over Taiwan.

Some analysts in the U.S. and Taiwan believe that Chen deliberately kept American officials in the dark about his remarks beforehand in order to avoid pressure from Washington to scrap them.

“It’s a very calculated move for Chen,” said Yang. “The timing was good for him.”

Others insist that Chen’s remarks were off the cuff. Chen’s detractors say the president has long been criticized for telling audiences whatever they want to hear, and he was speaking to pro-independence overseas Taiwanese who have been major donors to his party.

Moreover, Chen has used virtually identical language about “one country on either side of the strait” in his political campaigns, a Taiwanese source said. Those remarks never raised a ruckus--because Chen wasn’t then president.

“He was not groomed to be president,” the source said. “He’s still learning.”

Whatever his intentions, Chen is likely to pay a price for his comments in the long term, political analysts believe. His painstaking two-year effort to convince Beijing that he is a worthy negotiating partner has probably been eroded. China had previously criticized “Taiwanese authorities” but until this incident had not named Chen. Now that he has been criticized by name, it will be harder for the mainland regime to reach any agreement with him.

Doubts about his leadership have also surfaced in Washington. The U.S. does not support Taiwanese independence and wants China and Taiwan to resolve their differences peacefully.

After China fired missiles into the strait to quash independence leanings in 1996 and again in 1999, when former President Lee said China and Taiwan have a “special state-to-state relationship,” the U.S. made it clear that it expected prior consultation if Taipei intended to alter its policy.

This time, however, the Bush administration has uttered no public criticism of the Taiwanese leadership. Not only has it refused to confirm rumors that Tsai was reminded that Washington expected not to be blindsided by provocative Taiwanese statements, but the State Department declined even to confirm that Tsai had met with specific senior U.S. officials.

However, in one meeting that did take place last week, a Bush administration official reportedly recommended to Tsai books she should read about how countries have underestimated China’s willingness to use military force, only to be attacked.

Another China specialist reportedly told Tsai that the Taiwanese were overestimating the rationality of their Chinese cousins on the politically inflammatory question of Taiwan.

Tsai met briefly with reporters but was mum on what was discussed, except to say that she “never, never apologized.”

Marshall reported from Hong Kong and Efron from Washington.