Jordan Tries to Keep Its Cool in Between Mideast Hot Spots

With the Palestinian intifada raging to the west and the prospect of a U.S. invasion of Iraq to the east, Jordan once again finds itself trapped in the middle, aggravating the sense of gloom and anxiety that grips the nation.

For this resource-poor but strategically important country, having to decide between its two main partners, the United States and Iraq, is a lose-lose proposition. War, if it comes--and the general sentiment here is that it will--threatens to further fray Jordan’s economic, social and political fabric.

“We are caught between the two hottest spots in the region, perhaps the world,” said Labib Kamhawi, a businessman and political analyst, echoing the fears of many of his colleagues and neighbors. “This country is weak, vulnerable.”

It may be weak, but its politics and its geography have made it invaluable to the United States, a reality that cost Jordan dearly when it chose not to side with the U.S. in the 1991 Persian Gulf War. To the Western world, Jordan is seen as a moderate country with a secular government, one of only two Arab nations to have signed a peace treaty with Israel. And Jordan also provides valuable intelligence information for Washington.

But below the surface, the Jordanian currents are restive. Its people are strongly anti-Israel--and, by extension, increasingly anti-American--with more than half the population ethnically Palestinian. An estimated 70% of the population is younger than 26 in a debt-laden economy that cannot create enough jobs to ensure social stability in a region where nationalists have toppled aristocrats.

And young King Abdullah II is perceived by many at home and abroad to be struggling for legitimacy.

Jordanian government officials and Western diplomats say Washington is keenly aware of Jordan’s bind and hasn’t pushed the kingdom into playing a major logistical role in any invasion of Iraq, such as hosting large numbers of soldiers or tanks.

Instead, Jordan will be relied on to perhaps accept refugees fleeing the battle or provide peripheral support to U.S. forces. Publicly, Jordan has said that it will refuse to play even a limited military role--a posture it must take because of the widespread public sentiment in support of the Iraqi people, if not their leader--and that it would expect the United Nations to carry the burden of caring for the refugees.

“There is very little pressure on Jordan,” said one Western diplomat based here in the capital, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “Mostly there will be requests for overflights and search and rescue. There is an understanding of the pressures Jordan is under.”

Since ascending to the throne when his father, King Hussein, died three years ago, Abdullah has struggled to consolidate his rule. In June 2001, he suspended parliament and has again delayed elections until spring.

He has empowered the intelligence services in a way that his father never did, relying on security officials to develop social policy, a strategy partly designed to help ensure public order in the event that Iraq flares up, according to analysts, academics and opposition politicians.

Many people say that a U.S. invasion of Iraq could prove to be the fledgling king’s greatest challenge as he tries to navigate the minefield of public opinion, economic reality and political necessity. The United States is Jordan’s No. 2 trading partner--and source of millions of dollars in aid and political currency. Iraq is Jordan’s No. 1 trading partner--and source of every barrel of its oil.

But more than that, Iraq is Jordan’s spiritual partner. The people here identify with the people there. They are both Arabs and for the most part Muslims--and strongly anti-Israel. Jordanians deeply resent the U.N. sanctions imposed on Baghdad after its 1990 invasion of Kuwait, seeing them as unduly punishing Iraqis.

“Overall, it will be a disaster,” said Fahed Fanek, an economist and political commentator. “Public sentiment will be against America. We will have demonstrations and strikes. Stability would be at stake, especially if America uses Jordan.”

That fear and anxiety can be felt in the streets of this capital, a city where almost every building is made of the same white limestone. Secret police are everywhere, watching, listening.

“Today the intelligence community in Jordan has much more power than I can ever remember,” said Mustafa Hamarneh, director of the Center for Strategic Studies at Amman University. “They are everywhere, in the press, in the government, and the sad thing is, everyone has caved in to them, so there is no debate about anything.”

On the streets, and even in their homes, people talk in whispers and look over their shoulders. (Jordanian officials, however, point out that the country is still far more open than its neighbors, such as Syria.) Their anxiety predates Sept. 11 and the talk of war in Iraq, but it has been magnified by those events, especially as the public recoils at the thought of its leaders helping America.

“For us to put our hands with America is unacceptable,” said Nwayer Naber, 38, who runs Amman’s first supermarket. It is a modest shop, with rows and rows of imported goods, most from Britain and America. He speaks fluent English and carries a British passport, but he’s as vehement as Jordan’s most outspoken Islamists. Supporting the U.S. “will be a very big problem,” he said. “No one will accept it.”

Carpet merchant Abdel Aziz Bakr, 46, is even more emphatic about what will happen if his king sides with America. “There will be a massacre,” he said as he sat on a pile of U.S.-made rugs he said he can’t sell because no one will buy American. He has started telling people that they’re made in Belgium. “There will be demonstrations, and people will end up getting killed” by the army.

The regime understands this is the sentiment and has begun to prepare. In addition to delaying elections again, it has stepped up a policy of silencing the media, continued to outlaw all demonstrations and increasingly turned to the intelligence services for advice in running the country, according to analysts, business leaders and people who have met with the king.

And the king has started to lay the groundwork for casting blame on Saddam Hussein.

“We will continue to offer all we can for Iraq,” Abdullah said in a recent address to his nation. “But the decision in the end is that of the Iraqi leadership. They bear the responsibility in front of their people, nation and the world.”

The difficulty that Abdullah faces is far more treacherous than merely having to navigate an emotional dispute involving Israel, the Palestinians and the West. Iraq is Jordan’s economic lifeline, providing $600 million in oil that is delivered at half price, with the other half paid in barter.

If the oil stops, Jordan could cope for about two months, relying on reserves to make up the loss. But after that, unless the United States helps Jordan pay for its oil or successfully persuades another oil producer to make up the difference--and there is no indication that would occur--the country faces a financial catastrophe.

Jordan would have to pay $700 million annually at market prices for the oil it gets now, and it would have to pay hard currency. Jordanian businesses do about $400 million in business with Iraq through the U.N.-administered “oil-for-food” program.

“As usual, we will be at the forefront and we will pay the price,” said Mohammed Halaiqa, Jordan’s minister of state for economic affairs. As soon as the United States started talking about invading Iraq, he said, foreign investment began to dry up.

Western diplomats said that Jordan’s doomsday scenario is unlikely to occur and that the country can expect help from its friends should problems materialize.

But there are many other concerns. Many Jordanians also fear that Iraq may try to attack Israel, and either try to cut through Jordan or lob a missile at Israel and miss, hitting Jordan instead.

And there is the matter of Jordan’s neighbors.

“If there is a major operation in Iraq, it won’t just be a matter of Jordan dealing with the Americans,” a Western diplomat said. “They will be dealing with the Saudis, the Syrians, Egyptians and others. It’s a complex set of calculations for the Jordanians.”

None of this anxiety, however, is to be mistaken for support for Saddam Hussein. If it were possible to get rid of him quickly, maintain stability, keep the oil and the exports flowing, few here would complain. Not many think that can happen.

If there is a war, many people here expect a blood bath in the short term, if for no other reason than after decades of tyranny, many people in Iraq have a score to settle with someone--and almost everyone there has a gun.

“It is clear that all Jordanians are against a military invasion,” Information Minister Mohammed Adwan said. “That does not mean support for the Iraqi regime.”

So they are bracing for the worst.

“The situation here feels very critical, and the future is unknown,” said Abdul Latif Arabiyat, former speaker of parliament and president of the Islamic Action Front, the political party of the Muslim Brotherhood. “We are in the middle. What will happen to Jordan if anything happens in the area?”

Still, many experts here believe that when push comes to shove, Abdullah will choose the United States over Iraq, even if he denies it to his own people. Jordan gets far more from America than the approximately $400 million in aid received this year, officials said. Washington helps bring legitimacy to the regime, analysts said, and the king is unlikely to jeopardize that.

When his father decided to back Iraq in the Gulf War--or, as Jordanians say, “remain neutral”--the United States cut off financial aid and Jordan found itself having to ration car use. Times were different then: Economic ties to Iraq were even closer, there was no peace treaty with Israel, and King Hussein thought that he could negotiate a settlement.

Nevertheless, the outcome for Jordan was disastrous.

Its import-export businesses were pretty much shut down, and 400,000 Jordanians working in Gulf countries were kicked out and sent home--depriving Jordan of their remittances and saddling it with the cost of caring for them. Tens of thousands of Iraqi refugees further strained Jordan’s resources.

Jordan is determined not to let anything like that happen again.

“The message has been put forward to the people of Jordan,” said Adwan, the information minister. “At the very end, the Iraqi problem will be the Iraqi problem. We cannot commit suicide for anyone.”