SCOUTING REPORT

STARTERS

No one can guard Shaquille O’Neal and no one can defend Tim Duncan. They both averaged more than 25 points and 10 rebounds in the regular season, and did it again in their first-round series. Statistically, they play each other to a standstill, which puts the emphasis on the eight other players on the court. That’s why the Lakers are working on three championships in a row and the Spurs are trying to remember theirs, which came immediately before the Lakers’. Kobe Bryant averaged 33.3 points and made more than half of his field-goal attempts in last season’s Western Conference finals against the Spurs. He also averaged seven rebounds and seven assists in a Laker sweep, which avenged the San Antonio sweep two years before. The Spurs won’t forget Derek Fisher this year. He made 15 of 20 three-point attempts in the sweep. Tony Parker, the Spurs’ rookie point guard, was effective penetrating against the Lakers, who often are vulnerable to small, quick players. He averaged 15.3 points in the series, 20 in the March 31 game at Staples Center. The Lakers get experience and playoff know-how with Rick Fox and Fisher, but they’ll need Samaki Walker to play better than he did against Portland, bruised knee or not. The Spurs could be better with the smaller, quicker Malik Rose at center than the injured David Robinson, who played only seven minutes in the first round.

Edge: Lakers.

BENCH

Robert Horry is rangy and can bother Duncan with his savvy defense, and his perimeter shooting can draw Duncan out of the middle and therefore out of the double-teams against O’Neal. Laker Coach Phil Jackson tries to pace Horry, so he’ll ride Walker as long as he can. By late in the third quarter and early in the fourth, Horry and Walker usually have switched roles. Horry is on the court to stay, and Walker spells O’Neal at center for those critical four or five minutes. Brian Shaw is smart and eager to please O’Neal. Lindsey Hunter has not shot well but is sound defensively, which will give Fisher an occasional break against Parker. Rose has brought edginess to the Spurs, who often play with the stoicism of Duncan and Robinson. In Robinson’s absence against Seattle, Rose averaged 16.6 points and 9.4 rebounds. Terry Porter and Danny Ferry are three-point shooters, though Ferry has an injured right hand and was limited in the first round, and Mark Bryant can help against O’Neal.

Edge: Spurs.

OFFENSE

There’s a well-worn story about Robinson dissing a young, autograph-seeking O’Neal. True or not, O’Neal seems to believe it, so Robinson continues to pay for the slight. O’Neal takes great delight in muscling Robinson around the basket, and the Spurs often swamp O’Neal with defenders. Sometimes it works: O’Neal averaged 22 points and shot well below 50% in three regular-season games against the Spurs. Still, the Lakers scored more points and shot at a higher percentage than the Spurs in the regular season. If you’re looking for an unlikely scorer, try Slava Medvedenko. He got into two games against the Spurs, one a blowout for the Spurs in San Antonio, and averaged 11.5 points. The Spurs revolve around Duncan and his low-block and medium-range game. Parker has given them a penetration threat and Robinson--if he plays and plays effectively--gives the Spurs another option from the elbow in. Steve Smith hasn’t done much against the Lakers lately, part of the reason the Spurs averaged only 93.8 points against the Lakers.

Edge: Lakers.

DEFENSE

Walker played two seasons in San Antonio before signing with the Lakers last summer and frequently worked against Duncan in practice. That familiarity was useful at times for Walker, but mostly Duncan did what he wanted. If Horry or Walker can’t handle Duncan alone, Jackson might have to break down and run a double team at Duncan, which Jackson hates because it frees the Spurs’ perimeter shooters. When the Lakers are healthy and motivated, their team defense is as good as any in the West. O’Neal is bothered by an arthritic toe, however, so he is slower and the Lakers are more vulnerable to aggressive moves to the basket. Bryant was named to the league’s All-Defensive second team and likes to gamble. He is very dangerous when he roams and helps, but can be beaten in that way too. The Spurs use small forward Bruce Bowen to guard Bryant, but that didn’t always work so well. Bryant made nearly half of his field-goal attempts against the Spurs and averaged 26.5 points. Rose and Mark Bryant often log lots of minutes in the middle. Robinson missed all but a few minutes of the first-round series against Seattle because of a lower-back sprain. Bryant started Game 2 and Duncan started Game 3 at center, with Rose starting at power forward in the latter game.

Edge: Lakers.

COACHING

There was nothing comfortable about the Lakers’ three-game sweep of the Portland Trail Blazers, in which Jackson plotted against small lineups and matchup quandaries. Gregg Popovich looked bad in the Western Conference finals last year, when it appeared his team gave up on him in the face of the runaway Lakers. Still, the biggest win of that series was in Game 2, when Jackson was ejected with 16 minutes remaining and the Lakers outplayed the Spurs down the stretch, causing Fox to observe: “We’ve matured to a point where we maintained our composure. Outside of Phil.” Jackson has 144 postseason coaching victories and could overtake Red Auerbach before June is over. Popovich has 30.

Edge: Lakers.

KEY TO THE SERIES

Jackson said it’s health. If O’Neal’s toe doesn’t slow him too much on a tighter schedule than the first round, if Walker’s bruised knee does not have him overrun by Duncan, if Robinson’s back allows him to play at all, if Ferry’s hand allows him to shoot. That’s discounting any new injuries in a series that should be physical by Western Conference standards. If O’Neal can move, and there are indications he is feeling better, the Lakers have the advantage. The Lakers won the season series, 3-2, after sweeping the Spurs in the conference finals by an average of more than 22 points a game.

Edge: Lakers.

PICK

Lakers in 5.