Sharon Plots His Next Move to Preserve Tenuous Coalition

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon made good today on his threat to drive two ultra-Orthodox parties from his coalition, betting that his rising popularity will keep him in power with a razor-thin parliamentary majority.

Sharon let his dismissal of Cabinet ministers and deputy ministers from the Shas and United Torah Judaism parties take effect at 12:30 a.m. today, hours after parliament gave preliminary approval to his economic austerity plan, which those parties had helped defeat Monday.

Sharon had warned the parties that unless they voted in favor of the package in Wednesday’s vote, he would fire them for insubordination. Instead, 17 legislators of the Shas Party staged a walkout from the Knesset, or parliament, before the vote.

They were joined by three United Torah Judaism lawmakers. Two other party members voted against the plan to slash about $2.7 billion from the budget, which the ultra-Orthodox say will hurt the poor. The bill passed its first reading Wednesday by a vote of 65 to 26.

“The break with these parties is final. The matter is closed,” Sharon told reporters after the vote.

As the early-morning deadline drew near, Shas ministers packed their government offices and moved out.

Newspaper editorials praised Sharon for showing leadership in standing up to parties that previous prime ministers had appeased. A poll conducted by Yediot Aharonot newspaper Tuesday night showed that 70% of respondents supported Sharon’s decision.

But some analysts said that the dire economic situation left Sharon little choice but to seek passage of the emergency measures. The economy, mired in a recession, has seen the value of the shekel erode, unemployment rise and foreign investment evaporate since the current conflict with the Palestinians erupted in September 2000.

Senior economists who met with the prime minister last week “warned Sharon the economy is heading for the abyss with giant steps,” economic analyst Moti Bassok wrote in Haaretz newspaper Wednesday. “If he didn’t take matters in hand, he could find himself being blamed for its collapse.”

Sharon’s dismissal of the two ultra-Orthodox parties leaves him with just 60 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. He opened talks Wednesday with the far-right National Union Party hoping to draw it into the coalition to give himself a majority.

The prime minister sent an envoy to meet with National Union leader Avigdor Lieberman, who pulled the party out of the government this year because, he said, Sharon was not doing enough to crush the Palestinian Authority.

“I’m not ruling anything out; I’m not making any commitments,” Lieberman said in an interview with Israel Television. “Everything is open.”

There was widespread speculation that Sharon might seize the moment--with polls ranking him the most popular politician in the country--to call early elections. His tough stance toward the Palestinians and the ultra-Orthodox has left him well-positioned to battle his rival, former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for leadership of the Likud Party, pundits said Wednesday.

“[Sharon’s] associates are convinced that in a situation like this, when his standing in the polls has never been better, he will walk right over Benjamin Netanyahu,” wrote Ben Caspit in Yediot Aharonot.

In the complex world of Israeli coalition politics, however, Shas might yet rejoin the government, even after being humiliated by Sharon. The party’s leaders were said to be stunned that Sharon had chosen to punish them so harshly and were searching for ways to reach a compromise that would return them to a role in the coalition.

“I believe that he will return to his senses,” Shas lawmaker Yitzhak Peretz said of Sharon. “In the end, the weak groups will benefit from our opposition [to the budget cuts], and the prime minister will understand that he will have no coalition without Shas.”

The economic package--which calls for tax hikes in addition to budget cuts--must still pass two more votes in the Knesset before it can become law. Those votes are expected to be held in two weeks. Sharon has said privately that if the ultra-Orthodox parties vote in favor of the package then, he might take them back.

For Sharon, the prospect of governing without Shas is uncomfortable. The party’s 17 seats make it the third-largest bloc in the Knesset. Its ministers usually backed Sharon’s policies toward the Palestinians, whether he was launching military actions or speaking of holding talks.

Without Shas, the government is made up of Likud, the center-left Labor Party and some smaller far-right parties.

Sharon’s governing partners might take advantage of his narrow majority to make demands on him.

“It is going to be a very tough era,” Likud Whip Zeev Boim told The Times in an interview Wednesday night.