Inactivity of Iraqi Air Force a Cause of Concern for Allies

At an air command center in Saudi Arabia, American and British commanders watch their radar screens for signs of enemy aircraft.

As recently as two weeks ago, Iraqi jets showed up as high-speed blips, making runs into Iraq’s “no-fly” zones, then wheeling back to their bases.

Now? Nothing.

As far as anyone can detect, not a single Iraqi air force plane has left the ground since the war began.

“We’re delighted to see an outbreak of common sense among the Iraqi pilots,” British Royal Air Force Group Capt. Jon Fynes said at a briefing Monday.

Other commanders aren’t so sure.

“We’re reasonably surprised,” a U.S. military official said. “You don’t know whether this is a new tactic. You don’t know if they are saving up for something else.”

In recent days, allied bombers have pounded airfields throughout Iraq. They have searched for and destroyed planes hidden in fields, and cemeteries and beside mosques.

Still, an analyst said, there is reason to be concerned about the ones that have not been found.

“There is no way they could launch a major force without being seen -- they’d be dead meat before they left the runway,” said Andrew Brookes of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. “But I’ve always worried that someone might launch a suicide mission.”

The Iraqis might be driven to such desperate measures by desperate circumstances.

Through the 1970s and ‘80s, Iraq accumulated an array of Russian and French aircraft, building the world’s sixth-largest air force by the start of the 1991 Persian Gulf War.

But it was soundly defeated just the same, Brookes noted. Some planes were lost in combat and some pilots fled to Iran. In the years since, United Nations sanctions and financial hardship have taken a further toll.

Iraqi pilots log less flight time in a year than many of their American and British counterparts do in a month. The air force is in disrepair, dominated by outdated jets such as MIG-23s.

Though exact numbers are hard to come by, estimates suggest that the number of functional Iraqi aircraft has dropped from as many as 750 in 1990 to as few as 100. Only about half of those -- the newer MIG-25s, MIG-29s and Mirage F-1s -- are considered modern enough to be a threat.

By comparison, more than 1,000 American and British aircraft are conducting 2,000 or more sorties each day.

These planes fly over Iraq nonstop, fighters patrolling, close-air support jets circling in what is called a “cab rank.” At any moment, any type of plane can peel off and attack.

Meanwhile, surveillance aircraft watch for signs of movement on the ground. When Iraqi workers patch holes in runways, the bombers return.

Noting this air superiority, analysts say Army Brig. Gen. Vincent Brooks was not far off the mark Monday when he told reporters: “If they fly, they die. It’s as simple as that.”

But another U.S. military official cautioned that Iraqi pilots might have learned something while dueling with Americans in the no-fly zones during the last 12 years.

“All the times they fired on us, they went to school on what our response was,” he said. “They’ve learned our evasive maneuvers. They know where all the routes are.”

Fynes was equally generous.

“Some of us know Iraqi pilots personally, have met them over the years,” he said. “Some of them have been trained in the West. The good ones are good.”

Given their respect for the Iraqis, Fynes and others hold out hope that the pilots might be disobeying orders to fly. But another explanation for the inactivity -- waiting for a last-ditch attack -- is equally possible.

There is evidence that Iraq has converted some of its old Czechoslovakian trainers into unmanned drones that can deliver chemical weapons.

These planes are slow and easily intercepted. Their remote signals can be jammed.

More likely, Iraq’s best pilots would deliver chemical weapons by making a dash for the front line in their fastest jets, like the MIG-25 that was used to fly into Saudi airspace last month. American and British fighters would need to react quickly.

“We’re concerned about any possible use of an airplane to conduct terrorist military operations,” Air Force Maj. Gen. Victor Renuart said recently.

Even more worrisome, said Brookes, is that Iraqi planes could head in the opposite direction, on a one-way run toward Israel. They could fly at low altitude, expending all their fuel on afterburners, racing 600 mph for the border.

“If they want to fly the kamikaze route, it’s still available,” the analyst said. “They might get the odd one or two planes through.”