Allied Victory Hinges on Breaking Strong Spell

As allied forces battle Iraq’s Republican Guard divisions on the outskirts of Baghdad, a far more elusive, yet equally crucial, mission must be accomplished by military planners before the Anglo-American alliance can declare victory: breaking Saddam Hussein’s spell over his people.

The inability of the U.S.-led coalition to weaken the Iraqi president’s grip over a frightened and panicked people in the first days of fighting looms as a serious shortcoming in the war. It is one reason the conflict has been both unexpectedly tough and increasingly messy.

Though there were some signs of progress Wednesday -- U.S. troops severely weakened two Republican Guard divisions south of the capital and were enthusiastically welcomed by residents in the central town of Najaf -- Middle East experts say that, unless Hussein’s control is broken soon, his legacy may be transformed from that of a ruthless dictator to a pan-Arab hero and patriot who refused to succumb to powerful invaders.

Such an image could haunt the alliance’s postwar occupation of Iraq, possibly with catastrophic consequences.

“If he’s able to re-create a sense of Arab nationalism, even temporarily, then that will become a serious problem for the allies,” said Michael Clark, director of the International Policy Institute at King’s College, London. “The longer this spell lasts, the more difficult everything becomes.”

Military planners and political analysts refer to this ephemeral goal as “tipping” -- essentially that moment when Iraqis are convinced that Hussein’s power has evaporated. It is the instant of public release from the psychological grip of a regime whose level of brutality has cowed and terrified Iraqis for a generation.

At that moment, planners believe, the Iraqi people themselves will turn against the pillars of Hussein’s power, crush resistance to the American-led invasion and generate an implosion of the ruling Baath Party’s power that will ensure victory for the alliance. Expecting that this moment would occur quickly stands as one of the most serious miscalculations of the war.

Early today, there were hints that at least in some isolated instances, this tipping may have begun. Marines near the city of Al Kut reported that Iraqis were begging them for yellow paint to cover the ubiquitous images of Hussein in their area. And hours earlier in Najaf, thousands of residents poured into the streets to salute members of the 101st Airborne Division.

Overcoming Hussein’s rule of fear has been a top priority for war planners from the outset. It seems doubtful that the fear will dissipate as long as the regime or its enforcers -- who are still in a position to use arrests, conscription or executions to rein in much of the population -- continue to hold power.

Indeed, the opening salvos of the war involved a long-range assassination attempt on Hussein using cruise missiles. That was followed by other measures, including U.S. assertions that Hussein was dead, wounded or no longer in control. There also has been clandestine contact with Republican Guard generals and other key commanders, offering enticements for prewar surrender.

According to U.S. Central Command headquarters in Doha, Qatar, the Iraqi population has been showered by no less than 28 million allied leaflets, many attempting to sow seeds of doubt about Hussein. One accuses him of amassing riches while the people starve.

On Wednesday, a U.S. Air Force warplane destroyed the Baath Party headquarters in Najaf as troops of the 101st Airborne Division took care to see that a historic mosque survived the fighting intact.

So far, however, such efforts have produced few results, partly because, experts say, allies misjudged the virulence of those forces loyal to Hussein and the level of fear still felt by the Iraqi people.

Twice in the last two nights, Hussein has issued brief but aggressive exhortations to his people, urging them to “fight the invaders everywhere until they leave our land.” The fact that his messages weren’t delivered personally, but instead read on state television by others, was viewed as an encouraging sign by U.S. planners, who speculated that Hussein may have been either physically unable to appear or felt it was too unsafe.

Still, his words alone were a reminder to Iraqis not just that the dictator’s regime remained very much alive, but that Hussein is the ultimate survivor.

“He lands on his feet every time,” noted a senior military officer at the U.S. Central Command headquarters. “He’s everything, everywhere.”

Because of that, frightened -- or at least uncertain -- Iraqis still seem unsure about how to greet advancing U.S. and British forces, according to reporters traveling with troops.

Probes into urban areas by allied forces are especially problematic, often leaving residents with what can seem to be life-or-death choices. A wave to an allied soldier might result in executions by Baathist or paramilitary fighters once allied troops leave. But residents appear convinced that anything perceived as a hostile act toward the invaders also could bring death.

An Arab television reporter who entered the southern city of Basra late last week said residents shouted pro-Hussein slogans into the camera. But once filming stopped, the people explained that any other reaction was too risky so long as Baath Party functionaries remained in the area. U.S. forces report that in some towns, residents have pointed out buildings belonging to Hussein’s instruments of power, but it remained unclear what happens to these residents once the Americans move on.

Allied planners and regional specialists believe there have been other miscalculations too. Among them:

* A senior U.S. officer in Doha acknowledged that the military’s much-touted propaganda campaign -- millions of leaflets, radio broadcasts and direct contact -- has failed to sway the Iraqi people to support the U.S.-led invasion. American planners did not understand the control that a totalitarian regime can wield, he admitted, nor did they understand cultural differences in shaping their message.

Others agree.

“It has all been overly simplistic,” said Clark of King’s College. “It needs to be more subtle, more determined.”

* Americans also have not been able to dispel the deep-seated mistrust with which Iraqis regard them, said the senior U.S. officer, who requested anonymity. The failure of coalition forces to support a domestic Iraqi rebellion during the 1991 Persian Gulf War has not been forgotten.

“We bear a certain responsibility for what we didn’t do in ‘91,” the officer said. “We let them down once; we won’t let them down twice. If you’ve been beaten up, beaten down and persecuted the way they have, it shouldn’t surprise you that they’re waiting to see.”

He also acknowledged that the devastating bombardment of a cherished city like Baghdad, plus the killing of civilians and other missteps, could further turn Iraqis against Americans.

“When they have absolutely no understanding of what’s happening around them -- it may well be stiffening their resolve for fighting for the regime,” the officer told a group of journalists.

* Conditions in Iraqi cities have sharply deteriorated since the military campaign began March 20. The civilian casualties, the loss of drinking water and the shortage of humanitarian aid have caused many Iraqis to equate the arrival of allied forces with a deepening of personal misery. International assistance agencies have criticized efforts carried out so far to deliver food, medical supplies and other goods. In some instances, aid deliveries have triggered unseemly melees in which only the strong have come away with goods.

“The United States has to up its game on the hearts-and-minds issue,” Clark said. “Otherwise, there is a real danger that Saddam’s spell can last beyond his death.”

Hussein’s ability to at least slow the allied invasion -- an event totally unexpected in the wider Arab world -- has heightened his image in a region desperately short of heroes since Egypt’s pan-Arab President Gamal Abdel Nasser passed from the scene more than three decades ago.

“If Saddam hadn’t fought like this, he would quickly have gone into obscurity,” said Sharif Elmusa, director of Middle East studies at the American University in Cairo. “Now he’s being lionized. He’s going to go down in Arab history as someone who stood up to foreign invaders.”

Hussein’s survival also has unsettled Arab governments in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the Persian Gulf states, which have given support to the U.S.-led attack despite the mood of anti-Americanism in the region. Vivid accounts of human suffering televised across the Arab world have steadily fanned emotions.

“The situation is so volatile that even two to three weeks of [Hussein’s] additional survival might prove disastrous to some of these states,” Clark said.

But with the war entering its third week, U.S. military planners say they are beginning to see the first signs that Hussein’s aura may be weakening

“When do we get to the tipping point?” asked the U.S. officer. “In different places, at different times. I sense we are near the tipping point in Basra. I sense we are near the tipping point in Nasiriyah. But it’s a sense based only on a feeling.”

*

Times staff writers David Lamb in Cairo, Jailan Zayan in Doha, David Zucchino with the 101st Airborne Division in central Iraq and Megan K. Stack in Jerusalem contributed to this report.