N. Ireland Peace Plans Withheld

The British and Irish governments on Thursday balked at presenting their anticipated proposals for Northern Ireland, frustrating those who had hoped that a lasting peace was within reach.

The last-minute hesitation stemmed from the Irish Republican Army’s reluctance to offer a clear declaration that its paramilitary war against the British government is over, according to sources familiar with the negotiations. The IRA had also been expected to present a plan to begin destroying its cache of weapons, in return for pledges from the British government to gradually dismantle its military presence in the province.

At a news conference in London, British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern complained that the IRA’s proposed wording lacked the “total clarity and certainty” necessary to convince doubters -- especially Northern Ireland’s largest Protestant parties -- that violence was being abandoned.

It was a disturbingly last-minute hitch in what had been expected to be a fresh push for peace. It came just days after President Bush put his imprimatur on Blair and Ahern’s efforts. Bush used his Iraq war summit with Blair in Northern Ireland to tell the paramilitary groups they must give up the gun forever.

But the IRA -- for now, at least -- appears to have stared Bush down. Blair and Ahern had planned to be in Northern Ireland on Thursday to release their new deal on the fifth anniversary of the Good Friday agreement, the deal that established a power-sharing government between Protestant and Catholic communities.

That local executive was suspended in October following allegations of IRA “spies” operating inside the government. But it was already reeling from other pressures by then, notably the IRA’s refusal to completely disarm, which undermined confidence in the peace process even among moderate Protestants.

For its part, the IRA argues that the British government has not met all of its commitments under the peace accord, and it pointedly notes that Protestant paramilitary gangs have also refused to disarm.

The independent decommissioning body run by retired Canadian Gen. John de Chastelain in Belfast has had no one from the paramilitary gangs to talk to since last fall. De Chastelain has heard from neither the IRA’s shadowy representative known only by the nom de guerre of “P. O’Neill” since October nor anyone from the various Protestant paramilitaries who have devoted their attention in the last two years to bloody, internecine power struggles.

For example, of De Chastelain’s five contacts from the Protestant Ulster Defense Assn., two are dead, two have been returned to prison, and the other has gone virtually underground.

It was the goal of stopping this slide back toward anarchy that spawned the latest set of political negotiations. The contours of the latest proposal are hardly a secret in the province. They are rooted in what is known in Northern Ireland as “sequencing,” a choreographed series of events over several days by which parties match concessions from others with some of their own.

The British government is offering to tear down military installations and gradually reduce troop numbers in Northern Ireland, as well as offering guarantees on human rights and a scheme allowing IRA fugitives from justice to return home.

The expectation was that the IRA would respond to those proposals with a declaration that its war was over, and that it would begin to disarm, if not disband.

That, in turn, was supposed to be enough for Protestant politicians to agree to restart the power-sharing executive.

But sources speaking on condition of anonymity said the IRA’s proposed statement would not have been acceptably convincing to the skittish Protestant community.

“There was no point in going ahead if it was going to be just one more fudge from the IRA,” a leading Catholic politician said.

Blair and Ahern said they would continue to work on a deal, and they hinted that, with some movement, they could be in Northern Ireland as early as this weekend to present their proposals.

“We have to learn that everybody here is only going to get their second-best option,” says David Ervine, leader of the Progressive Unionist Party, the democratic wing of one Protestant paramilitary gang. “But everyone is still afraid of the constituency they live in, afraid they’ll be seen as a traitor if you’re seen to do a deal.”