Taiwan Leader Says Referendum Won’t Address Independence

Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian, apparently reacting to strong U.S. pressure, reassured the United States on Thursday that he would not hold a referendum on independence from mainland China.

Although Chen made no commitment to scrap the plan he announced last weekend to conduct a “defensive referendum” on the island’s relationship with the People’s Republic, a statement released by his office late Thursday said it would not involve the unification-or-independence dispute. Instead, it would be a vote “to maintain the status quo and prevent any change in the status quo,” the statement read.

The remarks appeared to lower tensions around an incident that threatened to escalate into a crisis. Beijing had threatened military action if Chen put the independence question to a vote on the island.

The U.S., which under President Bush has committed to undertake whatever measures are needed to defend Taiwan, has a major interest in preventing a confrontation.

Chen’s statement came after nearly a week of political maneuvering by the Taiwanese president that culminated in meetings Thursday with the senior U.S. permanent representative in Taiwan, Douglas Paal, and a visiting U.S. senator, Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.). It also followed the reported visit this week to the Taiwanese capital, Taipei, by White House Asia specialist James Moriarity, who was apparently dispatched to warn Chen against plans to hold a referendum.

The diplomatic flurry comes on the eve of Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s first visit to Washington since assuming his post this year. It also occurred in the heat of Chen’s campaign to win a second term as president in elections scheduled for March 20 -- the same day Chen has set his referendum.

Although Beijing views the island as a renegade province that must be reunited with the mainland, Taiwan enjoys almost complete political independence, albeit with little diplomatic recognition around the world.

The referendum issue has been simmering for months, with Chen using it as a tactic in his hotly contested campaign against Nationalist Party opponent Lien Chan. The two are running roughly even in the race.

In the volatile relations across the Taiwan Strait, the concept of an island-wide referendum is highly controversial. When Chen’s Democratic Progressive Party presented legislation to parliament this year to enact a referendum law, it was viewed as provocative because it could be linked to the question of independence.

Last week, Chen’s legislative forces were outmaneuvered by the Nationalists, who suddenly agreed to back the law but used their parliamentary majority to dilute and limit its terms so that any vote on independence could occur only if an attack from the mainland is imminent.

Those provisions seemed to end the risk of immediate confrontation with Beijing, but just two days later Chen seemed to ignore those restrictions by declaring his intention to hold a “defensive referendum.”

Some analysts believe that his statement was aimed at provoking Beijing into an aggressive response that would help him win votes in March. Chen’s Nationalist opponents have historically subscribed to a “one-China” policy that implies eventual unification with the mainland, but they advocate keeping the status quo for the immediate future.

China has opposed any referendum on Taiwan’s future. With little likelihood that Taipei and Beijing will move closer soon, China’s best hope may be to keep things as they are.

“This is our biggest and most important issue,” said Wang Yizhou, a senior research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. “China wants to keep the status quo.”

Beijing also finds itself buffeted by countervailing forces. Initially, it sought to remain quiet on developments in Taiwan, hoping to avoid providing the response that Chen, arguably, was looking for. As things evolved, however, it was compelled to respond, and fired a verbal salvo threatening military action.

Times staff writer Mark Magnier in Beijing and special correspondent in Tsai Ting-I in Taipei contributed to this report.