Opposition in Taiwan Sheds China Policy

President Chen Shui-bian’s controversial political gambit to hold a referendum on the sensitive subject of relations with China has upset Washington and angered Beijing, but it has played well to an electorate that has cooled to the idea of eventually reuniting with the mainland.

The extent of that shift was underscored Tuesday when Chen’s Nationalist Party opponents appeared to drop their long-standing goal of eventual unity with the mainland. The move comes in the heat of an extremely close presidential campaign leading up to the island’s March 20 election.

At a news conference Tuesday, Nationalist presidential candidate Lien Chan repeatedly refused to endorse the party’s long-standing policy, instead calling for talks with Beijing within the framework of a status quo that for decades has kept an uneasy peace while letting Taiwan develop as a de facto independent nation.

Asked directly today whether Lien’s remarks constituted a shift in policy, party spokesman Justin Chou stated simply, “Yes.”

Tuesday’s U-turn by the Nationalists in effect leaves no major political force in Taiwan supporting unification. At one level, the development merely affirms the political landscape. At another, however, it is a potential bombshell likely to trigger new alarms among hard-liners in Beijing and further complicate hopes of maintaining peace in the region.

Chen himself upped the political temperature across the Taiwan Strait on Tuesday, warning in an interview with Britain’s Financial Times that Beijing’s threatening Taiwan militarily could push the island further toward independence.

Today, Beijing issued a strong warning against moves toward independence.

“In the face of outrageous Taiwan independence-splittist activities, we must make necessary preparations to resolutely crush Taiwan ... plots,” said Li Weiyi, a spokesman for the Cabinet’s Taiwan Affairs Office.

Washington and Beijing have agreed that Taiwan would someday be peacefully reunited with the mainland. The U.S., as the lone guarantor of Taiwan’s security, has insisted that neither side move unilaterally to alter the status quo. Last week, President Bush appeared with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and publicly rebuked Chen’s call for a referendum because it could be interpreted as an attempt to change the relationship.

Although Chen’s Democratic Progressive Party formally supports independence for Taiwan, Chen has long pledged not to pursue that goal openly to avoid enflaming cross-strait tensions, and he says the referendum is not about independence. Although the exact wording of the referendum isn’t known, it is believed that voters will be asked to express their sentiments about the missiles Beijing has quietly deployed opposite the island as a not-so-subtle threat.

Tuesday’s developments underscored what political analysts here had already concluded: Despite the controversy surrounding the referendum, Chen’s chances of winning a second term have never looked better. The only question, they say, is the price Chen would pay for this advantage.

For China’s Communist leaders, who view Taiwan as a breakaway province, the very concept of a referendum is unsettling. To them, holding one on relations with the mainland is a provocation that endangers their dream of eventually reintegrating the island under their control. Some officials in Beijing have demanded military force as the only suitable response.

But criticism from both Washington and Beijing has brought Chen the respect of undecided voters, many of whom applaud his willingness to push for an early test of Taiwan’s freshly passed referendum law.

“He’s courageous,” said Bear P.C. Lee, a former Internet entrepreneur who now drives a taxi in Taipei. “He’s willing to stand up for what’s right.”

To his critics, however, Chen’s actions constitute irresponsible risk-taking by a president so desperate to stay in office that he is willing to place his nation’s security on the line to score campaign points.

“He doesn’t care about Taiwan’s stability,” charged Nationalist Party spokesman Chou. “His only interest is getting reelected.”

But whatever the toll on Taiwan’s relations with the U.S. and China, the decision to hold the referendum -- and all that has followed -- has infused new energy into and focused more attention on the presidential campaign in one of Asia’s youngest, most freewheeling democracies.

So far, it appears to have been a clever tactic for Chen. He has sustained the referendum as a key campaign issue, and by choosing to focus on the missile buildup, he has selected an issue that is almost impossible for the Nationalists to oppose.

Many analysts now urge caution, for the sake of the island.

“He’s got to be careful,” said George W. Tsai, a research fellow at the National Chengchi University. “He’s always walked a tightrope and he’s always survived, but this is a high-risk, high-return strategy. As a head of state, you have a moral obligation not to do this.”