All’s Quiet on Israel’s Northern Front -- for Now

Just across the border in Lebanon, less than 100 yards from a cluster of watching Israeli soldiers, the yellow flag of Hezbollah flutters atop a spindly metal guard tower manned by two Islamic guerrillas.

But on this day, combatants on both sides of the frontier eye one another with a certain nonchalance. It’s quiet here on the northern front; and as the United States intensifies its preparations for war with Iraq, Israel is hoping it stays that way.

In Israeli military and security circles, however, few take anything for granted where Hezbollah is concerned.

The Iranian-backed Shiite Muslim group, whose name means Party of God, has always been something of a wild card in the region’s complex interplay of rivalries, enmities and shadowy alliances. Israeli intelligence assessments in recent weeks, based in part on Hezbollah’s words and actions, suggest a diminishing likelihood of significant military action by the group against Israel. But an outbreak of war in the region -- particularly one in which Iraq threatens Israel -- could tempt the guerrillas to strike, analysts and security officials say.

As longtime observers of the group’s methods and tactics point out, Hezbollah thrives on chaos and languishes in times of relative calm.

Hezbollah is implacably opposed to Israel’s existence and sees itself as the standard-bearer for the Arab world in the battle against the Jewish state. Its fighters spent nearly two decades bloodying Israeli troops in southern Lebanon and proclaimed glorious victory when Israel forces unilaterally withdrew in May 2000.

Since then, the two sides have shifted their conflict from the hills and valleys of southern Lebanon to the border, a meandering line approved by the United Nations but disputed by Hezbollah. Israel spent millions of dollars fortifying outposts and a sensor-equipped double row of high fencing that begins at the Mediterranean and runs along the Israeli-Lebanese frontier and the northern edge of the Golan Heights, which Israel seized from Syria in the 1967 Middle East War. White surveillance blimps stand out against the azure daytime sky, and infrared cameras mounted at high points scan the inky night for the slightest sign of movement.

In recent days, Israeli warplanes have flown surveillance missions deep into Lebanese airspace, drawing angry protests from Lebanon.

Hezbollah’s attacks along the border, while persistent, have mainly been in the form of low-level violence that Israeli military officials believe is designed to harry rather than provoke serious retaliation.

In 2000, Hezbollah kidnapped three Israeli soldiers who are now believed to be dead. Since then, however, the guerrillas have confined their activities largely to firing antiaircraft weapons at Israeli fighter planes, shelling Israeli positions in a disputed area near Mt. Hermon known as the Shabaa Farms and planting explosives on the Lebanese side of the fence that can be detonated by remote control when Israeli patrols pass. Late last year, an Israeli soldier lost his legs in such a blast.

Hezbollah fighters, now ensconced in former Israeli military positions, operate freely throughout what was once the Israeli buffer zone in heavily Shiite southern Lebanon.

“It’s Hezbollahland,” said a senior Israeli security official. “We had hoped that the Lebanese government would assert its authority and deploy its army along the border, but Hezbollah has free rein.”

Unburdened by conflict with Israel on its home turf, Hezbollah has used the 2 1/2 years since the Israeli pullout to engage in a concerted arms buildup. Israeli intelligence officials say the group has about 10,000 rockets and missiles with a range of up to 40 miles, putting population centers such as Haifa on the coast and Tiberias on the Sea of Galilee within reach. Intelligence indicates that Hezbollah has the capability to launch about 200 rockets almost simultaneously.

“You can imagine the panic among the civilian population if there were Scuds from Iraq falling on Tel Aviv and then suddenly rockets fired from Hezbollah are hitting the north of Israel,” said a high-ranking military official.

The intelligence sources say Hezbollah’s weapons are flown from Iran to the Syrian capital, Damascus, and then ferried by land over mountains to the group’s stronghold in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley. Israel closely tracks the movements of these arms convoys. However, in line with promises to the United States to avoid actions that would inflame tensions in the Arab world in advance of possible conflict with Iraq, the Israelis have not acted against them.

The strength of Hezbollah’s arsenal -- like that of its fighting force -- has never rested in size but in mobility. Its rockets and missiles are mainly small projectiles such as Katyushas, which can be fired from launchers mounted on light trucks or set up in almost any terrain by a small band of fighters.

The weapons were used to great effect during Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon in the wake of its 1982 invasion. When Hezbollah rocketed an Israeli border town, the military could quickly pinpoint the source of fire and dispatch sophisticated warplanes to hammer it with pinpoint airstrikes. But by then, the guerrillas -- often with the help of locals -- almost always had melted into the countryside.

In terms of weaponry and manpower, Hezbollah cannot match the strength of the Israel Defense Forces. However, Israeli intelligence regards the group as a long-term strategic threat on a par with Al Qaeda. Hezbollah is seen as far tougher, smarter and more formidable than Palestinian radical groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad, whose suicide attacks have claimed hundreds of Israeli lives.

Many people who now form the backbone of Israel’s security establishment had firsthand experience with Hezbollah during the long confrontation in southern Lebanon. There, the guerrillas displayed a degree of tactical inventiveness that even battle-hardened soldiers found unnerving.

“You could practically see them learning something new every day,” said Avi, an Israeli army officer who served several tours of duty in Lebanon in an elite combat unit. He asked that his full name not be used because he remains a reserve officer and regulations forbid him from speaking for publication.

“They would try something and it wouldn’t work, and in a very short period of time -- hours sometimes -- they would be back. They’d refine their methods and sometimes then succeed,” he said. “We learned to watch out for roadside bombs. They learned to disguise them as rocks, everything more and more realistic-looking.

“It was on and on like that. I had great respect -- I don’t like to use this word regarding them, because they killed many of my friends -- but I certainly did respect them as an enemy.”

What Israel has on its side is deterrence: the prospect of a massive military response, though probably not aimed at Hezbollah itself.

“If they were to attack us, we wouldn’t be going after the rockets and the truck launchers,” said a senior security official who requested anonymity. “We would be going after those responsible for supplying them.”

Analysts say that, if attacked by Hezbollah, Israel probably would strike at infrastructure elsewhere in Lebanon, at Syrian military installations in the country or even at targets inside Syria, the prime power broker in Lebanon.

However, a recent rapprochement between Syria and the United States, and the importance to Washington of the Damascus regime’s support in the U.N. Security Council, would greatly complicate any action against Syrian interests. And Israel also would have reason for reluctance to hit targets in Lebanon unrelated to Hezbollah.

“Hitting Lebanese infrastructure -- power plants, things of this nature -- would be a very quick way of sending the message to the Lebanese public that they are paying the price for Hezbollah’s actions,” said Eran Lerman, a former colonel in Israel’s military intelligence. “But serious moral considerations as well as operational considerations bring this into question.”

Hezbollah too must weigh whether hitting Israel is worth the risk to its own interests, particularly its wish for greater influence in Lebanon. The party holds 11 seats in the Lebanese parliament and has built a popular following by operating clinics, schools and hospitals.

However, its base could be eroded if its actions make Lebanon a target of retaliation. With large swaths of Beirut left in ruins by a devastating 15-year civil war that ended in 1990, the Lebanese government has devoted the last several years to a campaign of reconstruction meant to someday restore the city’s image as the “Paris of the East.”

“What they have achieved in terms of rebuilding is amazing, and if Israel sends its air force over Beirut, it will be a tremendous blow for Lebanon,” said Asher Kaufman, an analyst at Hebrew University’s Truman Institute. “People might look to Hezbollah and say, ‘Look, you caused this.’ ”

Hezbollah has a history of striking at Israel’s north when it perceives that the Israeli army is pinned down elsewhere. Last April and May, when Israel called up military reservists for the largest military offensive in a generation in the West Bank, Hezbollah embarked on a daily campaign of shelling Israeli border outposts. The attacks came very near to triggering an Israeli response, military officials said.

For now, Israel and Hezbollah have been sending signals that they would not initiate a strike -- though they would not ignore what they considered a serious provocation. Mohammed Raad, chairman of Hezbollah’s faction in parliament, said that the group would act only in self-defense. Israeli officials say their forces will hold their fire but that civilian casualties in any significant numbers would represent a line it cannot allow Hezbollah to cross.

“I think there is a fair chance, a better than even chance, that Israeli deterrence will work,” said Lerman. “But Hezbollah’s mission is that of a revolutionary movement .... The temptation to strike will be very great.”