Ties to Iraq Less Binding This Time

“Saddam! Saddam!” a hot-eyed young Palestinian shouted through his bullhorn as the latest pro-Iraq march was winding its way through the streets of this town Thursday. “Strike with chemical weapons!”

Another of the rally’s leaders, mindful of the TV cameras closing in, swiftly turned on him. “Shut up now,” he snapped. “Don’t be saying that.”

It was a telling moment. As the prospect of war looms ever larger, Palestinians are venting their anger at the United States, which on Wednesday laid out its case for military action against Saddam Hussein, and at Israel, which could find itself an Iraqi target.

But they don’t want to take it too far.

In the West Bank and Gaza Strip, many ordinary Palestinians -- beaten down by Israeli military curfews and checkpoints, midnight arrests and grinding low-level violence -- feel that these days, they have little to lose. Still, if previous conflict in Iraq is any guide, backing the wrong side could prove costly for the Palestinians.

In 1991’s Persian Gulf War, which took place before the start of the peace process that eventually led to the Oslo accords, the Palestinian public -- and leaders -- were squarely on the side of Hussein, the enemy of their enemy, Israel.

In the West Bank, where the Scud missiles that Iraq lobbed at Tel Aviv could be seen passing overhead, some Palestinians danced on the rooftops in celebration. Yasser Arafat declared his solidarity with the Iraqi leader and denounced the American-led campaign to drive Hussein’s troops out of Kuwait.

Afterward, Palestinians paid the price. Kuwait expelled thousands of Palestinian workers -- some of them laborers, but others well-paid, highly educated professionals -- depriving the Palestinians of one of their largest sources of badly needed foreign exchange.

Palestinian workers became personae non gratae in other gulf states as well, and wealthy emirates’ enormous donations to the Palestinian cause dried up. This time around, Arafat has been much more cautious, publicly urging Hussein to obey United Nations resolutions ordering him to disclose and divest of any weapons of mass destruction. Top Arafat deputies insist that pro-Iraq sentiment among Palestinians is simply sympathy for civilians who could be hurt or killed in a U.S.-led war, and for those who have suffered privation as a result of U.N. sanctions against Iraq.

To Israel, however, the links between Hussein’s government and the Palestinians are far more sinister -- particularly the Iraqi practice, dating back to the start of the current intifada nearly 2 1/2 years ago, of making large payments to the families of suicide bombers.

Analysts have noted Israel’s increasingly sharp warnings to the Palestinians not to try to exploit the chaos that an Iraqi missile strike against Israel would be likely to cause.

“Israel is not going to have any tolerance for Palestinian terrorism linked to or on behalf of the Iraqis, or for them acting in any way as proxies for Saddam,” said Gerald Steinberg, a professor of political studies at Bar Ilan University. “Any attempt to exploit the situation during the war would lead to a very large-scale Israeli crackdown -- a great deal larger than the one now.”

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said as much last month. Speaking to foreign journalists, he said that he didn’t care if Palestinians danced on the rooftops if Israel was attacked but that they would be extremely unwise to do anything more. On both sides, opinion appears to be hardening. The leading Palestinian newspaper Al Quds on Thursday dismissed the case for possible war against Iraq, as laid out by U.S. Secretary of State Colin L. Powell to the U.N. Security Council a day earlier. “No one is going to buy these claims,” the newspaper scoffed in an editorial. The commentary also alluded to an Arab parable in which a wolf claims a sheep is about to attack it, making up an excuse to tear the sheep to pieces.

The most vociferous support for Hussein has come at rallies organized by Palestinian groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad, usually held in their stronghold of the Gaza Strip. At these gatherings, masked men fire automatic weapons into the air, American and Israeli flags are burned, and there is plenty of fiery rhetoric.

At one such rally last month, a senior member of Hamas, Mahmoud Zahar, told several thousand chanting protesters that “any attack against Iraq will be answered by resistance everywhere, and American interests everywhere will be targeted.”

Thursday’s demonstration in Ramallah was small and sedate by comparison, with only about 100 people gathering in the city’s main square, then drifting away quietly afterward. Even so, there was a distinct undercurrent of anger from such unlikely firebrands as Manal Abulil, a 42-year-old accountant, and her friend Nabila Shafi, a 30-year-old housewife.

“Iraq isn’t causing any problems -- America is. It’s all America’s fault,” said Abulil. “And we don’t care if it makes America upset to hear this,” said Shafi, who was waving a placard bearing Hussein’s likeness.

Some Palestinian intellectuals fear that shows of support for Hussein play directly into the hands of Israel, making Palestinians appear politically immature and all too ready to support a dictatorial regime.

“The people who genuinely want Iraq to hit Israel are extremists with their own agenda. This doesn’t express the general view,” said Manuel Hassassian, a professor at Bethlehem University. “Because any support for such attacks is going to hurt the Palestinian cause.”

Many Israelis, however, believe their relationship with the Palestinians is already so thoroughly poisoned that the spectacle of Palestinians rejoicing over a strike at Israel would make little difference now.

Despite Palestinian disillusionment over what is perceived as overwhelming favoritism toward Israel by the Bush administration, many in the West Bank and Gaza also believe that only the United States is in a position to pressure Sharon into taking steps toward peace.

“We are looking to America to help us, and that is the most important thing,” said George Hazzoun, an unemployed 47-year-old driver who attended the Ramallah rally. “So no matter what happens in Iraq, if the Americans don’t do that, they will be left looking around, wondering why so many Arabs and Muslims hate them.”