Don’t wait longer to refinance

CHICAGO -- As that eminent philosopher Carly Simon once pointed out, these are the good old days. For mortgages, anyway.

Not that they are coming to an end: The three or four of you out there who haven’t refinanced still have time to rummage around for the old tax returns and pay stubs that your overworked mortgage broker needs to get you a better rate.

But get moving, because if the joy ride isn’t over, it’s certainly starting to sober up, according to the chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Assn. of America, the industry’s leading trade group.

Doug Duncan was in Chicago last week to “preview,” as he put it, a three-year forecast that his organization will announce formally on July 14. Here’s where he sees rates going:

By the end of this year, 30-year fixed-rate loans will average 5.5%.

By the end of 2004, Duncan looks for a 6.2% average.

By the end of 2005, he expects rates to be 6.8% to 7%.

He also sees home price appreciation slowing.

What about the much-discussed possibility of home prices hitting the wall? Except in a couple of overheated markets, it’s not going to happen, Duncan said. If his numbers pan out for 2004, it will be the third- or fourth-biggest year on record for the industry.