Sharon Ejects Main Allied Party From His Coalition

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s ruling coalition was in tatters Wednesday night after he tossed his main political partner out of the government for defying him on a key budget measure.

The ejection of the Shinui Party from Sharon’s government, though reversible during a 48-hour grace period, leaves the Israeli leader in control of only one-third of the 120 seats in the Knesset, or parliament, and thus vulnerable to being toppled at any time.

To stay in power, the 76-year-old leader must quickly seek allies elsewhere, and will most likely turn to the left-leaning Labor Party and perhaps smaller religious parties. Or he could try to reconcile with Shinui, his spurned partner, although bitter verbal outbursts during the parliamentary fray concerning religion’s role in the budget would make that a difficult prospect.

The upheaval could usher in a prolonged period of political disarray at a crucial time in which Israel is preparing to engage whatever Palestinian leadership emerges from elections scheduled Jan. 9 to replace Yasser Arafat, the late Palestinian Authority president.

The front-runner, the moderate former Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas, faces serious challenges of his own, both from the young guard within his Fatah faction and from the militant group Hamas, which Wednesday announced its intention to boycott the balloting.

Sharon’s plan to uproot Jewish settlements from the Gaza Strip and parts of the northern West Bank could also be imperiled by the parliamentary turmoil. His initiative enjoys wide popular support but has raised howls of protest from what was once the Israeli leader’s most loyal political base, the pro-settler constituency. The measure has already cleared early parliamentary hurdles and will face another crucial test in March.

Analysts generally agree that if Sharon’s government folds and early elections are called, potential hard-line successors such as Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are unlikely to push ahead with a Gaza withdrawal, which is envisioned to take place next year.

Israeli coalition politics are a highly theatrical affair, with brinkmanship and abrupt abandonment of passionately stated positions a frequent part of the discourse. Many political observers say this coalition crisis, for all its sound and fury, may prove just as evanescent as have many in the past.

The resolutely secular Shinui Party had signaled before the vote on the first reading of the annual budget that it intended to defy Sharon over funding earmarked for the ultra-Orthodox community. The Israeli leader in turn had made it clear that there would be consequences if it did.

The prime minister fired Shinui’s five Cabinet ministers within moments of his humiliating 69-43 parliamentary defeat, calling the dissenters into his Knesset office one by one as if summoning them to the woodshed.

Science Minister Victor Brailovsky, dismissed only two days after being sworn in, offered up some humor when asked to assess his brief tenure. “I can honestly say I did not make even one mistake during my term in office,” he told Israel Radio.

Failure to pass a final budget would trigger the government’s automatic resignation, but the budget-consideration process is just beginning, and Sharon does not face a deadline on it until March 31. The blueprint has been highly controversial, with left-leaning parties such as Labor opposing its sharp reductions in social spending.

The next possible confrontation between Sharon and his opponents can come Monday, when the Knesset is in session and a “no confidence” motion can be brought forth.

Shinui’s showdown with Sharon was triggered by the prime minister’s allocation of about $65 million in subsidies to be disbursed via a religious political party called United Torah Judaism.

Shinui, which holds 15 parliamentary seats, made its best showing ever in the last elections by promising to curb the legislative influence and budgetary clout of religious parties.

Labor is the second-largest parliamentary faction, commanding 22 seats. If combined with the Likud’s 40 lawmakers, Sharon would again have a majority, which he probably would try to bolster by courting religious parties as well.

The Central Committee of Sharon’s Likud Party has already rejected the idea of an alliance with Labor. But Sharon can reconvene the policymaking body and appeal to the self-interest of its members, arguing that unless he brings Labor into the coalition, some Likud lawmakers will be likely to lose their Knesset seats in any early elections.

“Now we can go back to the party center, start rebuilding,” said Likud lawmaker Roni Bar-On.

Working in the prime minister’s favor is a distinct lack of public enthusiasm for early elections, which would be the third national vote in less than four years.

A survey commissioned by the national newspaper Yediot Aharonot found that about two-thirds of Israelis would prefer that Sharon form a new coalition rather than sit through a lengthy campaign, during which most government business would come to a grinding halt.

At least some in Shinui already seemed ready to seek a compromise with Sharon. “If it turns out that the [subsidy] money is for things like supporting young children or helping the hungry ... then maybe this whole thing can be reconsidered,” said Shinui lawmaker Ehud Rassabi.

But the party’s head, Justice Minister Tommy Lapid, lashed out at Sharon in an angry speech before the budget vote that reflected the deep divide between Israel’s secular and ultra-religious communities.

Many secular Jews are weary of government financial support for tens of thousands of seminary students, and resent the much lower rate of military service among the ultra-Orthodox.

“I am no less a good Jew than Sharon,” Lapid, a Holocaust survivor, said heatedly on the Knesset floor. “And Shinui’s voters, who work and pay taxes and serve in the army, are much better Jews than the ‘dodgers.’ ”