USDA Expects Livestock Sales to Fall 5% This Year

Farmers and ranchers will see income from livestock sales fall nearly 5% in 2004 in the wake of the first U.S. case of mad cow disease, the U.S. Department of Agriculture predicted Friday.

“Livestock receipts are forecast to be down nearly $5 billion, due principally to a decline in beef export demand and a projected drop in cattle prices,” the USDA said.

The USDA projected 2004 livestock sales at $101 billion, down $4.9 billion from 2003.

The USDA’s discovery of mad cow disease in a dairy cow Dec. 23 triggered a sharp decline in cattle prices and a virtual halt in U.S. beef exports. U.S. exports of beef totaled $3.8 billion in 2003.

“This projection is made under the assumption that export markets that are currently closed remain so, and does not account for the fact that markets could reopen during the year,” the USDA said.

The USDA had said it planned to wrap up its investigation of the infected cow by mid-February.

Total livestock receipts include cattle raised for meat, dairy cows, poultry, goats and other animals.

The USDA forecast of farm income also said crop sales would rise in 2004, because of higher prices for corn, soybeans and other commodities.

Prices for major crops have risen on tight global supplies and poor weather in several crop-exporting nations.

The USDA estimated farmers would have receipts of $115.5 billion in 2004, up from $108.8 billion in 2003. That would reduce government subsidy payments for some crops by about $7 billion.

Corn and soybean sales will rise by an estimated 16% in 2004, the USDA said. Rice receipts are expected to soar 25%.

American wheat exports this year are expected to rise sharply because of production declines in the Black Sea region, the European Union and Argentina, which had poor growing weather.

However, overall net farm income in 2004 was forecast at $47.6 billion, down $7.3 billion from last year, the USDA said.