Decline Expected in U.S. Auto Sales Data

The numbers for U.S. auto sales for the month of December are due out today, but the forecast isn’t all cheer.

Analysts and economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect automakers to report a dip in sales during the month compared with December 2002. General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. both cut incentive spending from November, which will take a toll. However, the December sales pace is still expected to be the second-highest in 2003.

Based on the average forecast in a Bloomberg survey of five auto analysts and 12 economists, the seasonally adjusted annual sales rate dropped to 17.7 million cars and light trucks in December from 18.3 million in the year-earlier month. A sales decline would be the first in four months.

General Motors, Ford and DaimlerChrysler’s Chrysler, the three largest automakers in the U.S., probably didn’t think it was “necessary to pump up the volume with incentives like they did a year ago,” said Burnham Securities analyst David Healy. “This is probably healthy.”

General Motors and Ford want to boost profit by easing up on rebates and loan discounts that they’ve been using to try to stem market-share losses. General Motors, Ford and Chrysler had 61.8% of the U.S. market through November, down 1.2 points from a year earlier, as Toyota Motor Corp. and other Asia-based makers rose 1.2 points to 32.8%, according to Autodata Corp.

The results will be adjusted for one more sales day this past December than a year ago. A 17.8-million-vehicle annual sales rate would trail only the 19-million-unit pace in August among 2003’s months.

The industry’s incentive spending in December fell 5% to an average of $3,751 per vehicle from $3,941 in November, according to Bandon, Ore.-based CNW Marketing Research Inc., which collects the information for automakers and analysts.

From Bloomberg News