Koizumi in a Last-Minute Scramble for Votes

As Japan prepares to vote Sunday in partial parliamentary elections, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi finds himself scrambling to avoid the ignominy of losing a contest just about everyone had conceded to him a mere month ago.

Koizumi has campaigned with panic in his step in recent days, apparently spooked by polls that show his once-lofty approval rate sliding below 40% and his Liberal Democratic Party running even at best with the opposition Democratic Party.

Sunday’s elections are to replace half of parliament’s upper house. Koizumi entered the campaign on the breeze of a gathering economic recovery, vowing to win at least 51 of the 121 seats up for grabs. That would probably be enough for his party to keep control of the house in conjunction with its coalition partners.

That number now looks like an elusive target. Although his party will still govern after Sunday based on its majority in the more powerful lower house, there is a widespread sense that the prime minister will emerge politically weakened.

Some senior members of his party have even hinted publicly that falling much below the 51-seat bar he set for himself would force Koizumi to resign -- though few outside observers expect that to happen.

Even if he survives politically, a damaged Koizumi would spell trouble for the Bush administration, which could see another ally in the Iraq war humbled by voters at home.

Koizumi flew into the teeth of strong domestic hostility when he committed Japanese troops to the U.S.-led forces in Iraq, and accusations of being Bush’s lackey have haunted him since.

Yet the antiwar sentiment alone is not what’s dragging Koizumi down. His slide stems more from a backlash against the very thing that brought him to power: his dependence on a maverick personal style that set him apart from the cozy, back-scratching habits of his predecessors.

In the three years Koizumi has been prime minister -- an eternity in modern Japan -- he has frequently appeared to be running against his own party. He has governed in a presidential manner, drawing allies from outside the LDP and oxygen from his personal popularity.

Koizumi’s approval ratings -- which occasionally topped 80% -- arose from his willingness to at least talk about radically reforming Japan’s calcified political and business worlds. He also took risks internationally -- not just in Iraq, but by opening a dialogue with North Korea, the region’s renegade state.

His gamble paid off when Koizumi was able to take credit in 2002 for the release and return home of five Japanese citizens who had been kidnapped by North Korean spies.

Critics called it a politics of performance, much longer on style than achievements.

But it was working, until the public goodwill recently began to evaporate.

The trigger for his troubles may have been a poorly handled attempt to reform Japan’s overburdened pension system that culminated with a law passed in June. Koizumi’s political skills seemed to desert him. His party and its allies rammed the legislation through parliament without selling the public on why they should pay higher premiums now to receive smaller payouts in retirement.

Koizumi’s autocratic handling of the law coincided with revelations that a host of political leaders -- including members of the Cabinet -- had failed to make some of their obligatory pension contributions. His explanation that “there are lots of different ways of living life” only stoked public anger.

Many Japanese now see arrogance in Koizumi where they once only noticed charm, observers say.

“Koizumi’s performance politics were effective for a short term, but he has achieved nothing really,” said Masanobu Yoshida, a Tokai University professor of politics. “He is past his sell-by date. His style has reached a limit, and we are seeing the negative impact of it now.”

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Hisako Ueno of The Times’ Tokyo Bureau contributed to this report.