Region’s Growth Seen Gaining Momentum
Southern California’s economic comeback will continue to gain momentum, driving the state’s improving economy this year and next, thanks to strength in international trade, tourism, construction and aerospace.
But some of the Southland’s key industries -- particularly trade and movie and television production -- face major challenges that could hamper the region’s growth next year.
That’s the view from economists at the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp., a business research and support organization. Its latest forecast, to be released today, reflects a consensus that the region continues to benefit from its multi-industry diversity, while the technology-dependent Bay Area is taking longer to mount a significant comeback.
Southern California’s tourism outlook has brightened, with the addition of six new rides at various local theme parks -- an unusually high number -- expected to attract visitors, LAEDC chief economist Jack Kyser said Tuesday. The region’s aerospace industry, bolstered by recent multibillion-dollar defense contracts, is boosting hiring. Housing demand and major new building projects will spur employment in the construction sector, he said.
However, Hollywood is threatened by a growing migration of movie and television productions to other states offering tax breaks, financing and other incentives, Kyser said. Hampered by its lingering fiscal woes, California can’t match those incentives, he said.
“We are definitely at a disadvantage,” Kyser said, predicting that the industry will lose 1,500 jobs in Los Angeles County this year.
Traffic gridlocks at area ports, rail lines and other transportation connections, along with environmental concerns and other issues, could slow the region’s boom in international trade, Kyser said.
The Inland Empire will continue to enjoy the region’s fastest employment growth, with nonfarm jobs in San Bernardino and Riverside counties combined expected to rise 2.5% this year and 2.9% in 2005, the forecast says. Orange County employment will rise 1.8% this year and 2.5% in 2005, while Los Angeles County will post gains of 1% and 1.6% in 2004 and 2005, respectively.
