Sharon Strategy Backfires

There was no shortage of irony in Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s loss of a nonbinding Likud Party vote Sunday, which overwhelmingly rejected his proposed unilateral pullout from the Gaza Strip. As the architect of policies encouraging Israeli settlements on disputed lands, Sharon has in essence created the very political force that is defying him.

The Likud vote wasn’t a veto of just Sharon’s stand, but also of President Bush’s. Sharon exacted a high diplomatic price from Bush in April for a pullout. By threatening to break off his visit to Washington, Sharon successfully pushed Bush to abandon the long-standing principle that a Palestinian “right of return” and settlements in the West Bank were subjects only for final-status negotiations. Bush’s last-minute concessions undermined the U.S. standing as an honest broker, prompting Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to declare that “there exists today a hatred [of America] never equaled in the region.”

If Sharon cannot carry out his initiative by forming a coalition government with Labor or holding a national referendum, U.S. influence in the Middle East will diminish further.

Despite the lopsided vote against withdrawal, Israeli public opinion polls show overwhelming support for removing the 7,500 settlers living among about 1.2 million Palestinians. It is expensive and dangerous for soldiers to defend them. But the settlers form a highly vocal minority in Israel, which is why they have had a stranglehold on any peace settlement. The killing Sunday of a pregnant Israeli woman and her four daughters by Palestinian gunmen showed how hazardous Gaza remains.

The settlers would have far less sway with a national unity government led by Sharon and veteran Labor Party leader Shimon Peres. As a dovish figure, Peres would at least command some credibility with the Palestinians. This would offer the best path toward a pullout from Gaza and eventual direct negotiation with the Palestinians.

If Sharon pursues a more limited Gaza pullout, Bush will have made substantial compromises for little gain. The Middle East coordinating group made up of the European Union, Russia, the United Nations and the United States is scheduled to meet in New York today to discuss the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but the meeting is likely to go nowhere after the anti-pullout vote.

Until now, Sharon has displayed a deft touch for Israel’s complicated multiparty politics. But the settler movement he helped create has now rebounded on him, and he’s going to need all his political wile to make a pullout happen.

With Jordan’s King Abdullah II visiting him this week, Bush has an opportunity to voice no more than general support for Sharon’s plan and begin the job of damage control in the Arab world.