Arroyo Takes Narrow Lead in Philippine Presidential Election

President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, seeking the legitimacy that has eluded her since she took over as president three years ago, was narrowly leading challenger Fernando Poe Jr. in early returns today.

The voting was marred by violence, as at least 20 people died in election-related incidents Sunday and Monday, authorities said. Most of the deadly disputes occurred as local candidates campaigned.

At least 114 people have been killed in election-related violence since December, but officials Monday described the nationwide election as “generally peaceful.”

Arroyo, who has tied her administration closely to Washington and its war on terrorism, is likely to prevail, according to independent exit polls. But it could be weeks before the ballots are counted and the results known.

With barely 1 million ballots tallied, Arroyo was leading by just a few thousand votes over Poe, a popular movie actor who campaigned on his stardom but never articulated how he would revive the beleaguered economy or defeat Islamic militants and communist guerrillas.

The campaign was run in the shadow of former President Joseph Estrada, who was ousted by a military-backed popular rebellion. Arroyo, who was vice president and a rival of Estrada, took power in January 2001 after a controversial Supreme Court ruling declaring the presidency vacant.

Estrada, who is in custody and facing trial on corruption charges, insists that he never resigned. Himself a popular former actor, Estrada backed his close friend Poe and helped run his campaign from the military camp where he is detained. But despite Poe’s popularity as an action hero and cinematic champion of the underdog, it appeared from early returns that he was unable to match Estrada’s popularity at the polls.

Presidential elections are held in the Philippines every six years and the president is limited to one term, but Arroyo was entitled to seek a full term in office. She campaigned on her experience, and promised to improve the economy.

With five candidates in the race -- including a former national police chief, a televangelist and a former education secretary -- the winner is likely to prevail with fewer than 40% of the votes. Under the constitution, there is no runoff election.

More than 200,000 police and soldiers were assigned to protect polling places and prevent violence. Authorities said seven armed men who backed an unidentified candidate in Masbate province were killed Sunday in a clash with security forces. In two other incidents, six followers of mayoral candidates in the southern Philippines were gunned down. In a Manila suburb, two backers of another mayoral candidate were killed in a grenade attack. At least five people were killed in other incidents.

There was widespread concern, particularly among Poe’s supporters, that the outcome of the presidential election could be decided by fraud. Some of the actor’s backers predicted that violence and popular protests would erupt if it appeared that Arroyo was winning unfairly.

Independent exit polls could play a significant role in giving the election credibility if the final count matches the poll findings. One nationwide exit survey of more than 20,000 voters interviewed by radio network DZRH showed Arroyo with 36.5% to Poe’s 31.4%.

Another exit poll by the respected Social Weather Station showed Arroyo leading Poe, 31% to 23%, in metropolitan Manila, an area that often favors the opposition candidate in presidential elections.

Arroyo, whose father was president in the 1960s, attended Georgetown University in Washington, and draws much of her support from the educated elite.

In Makati, Manila’s wealthiest district, many voters backed Arroyo as the candidate who they believed could bring stability to the country and create a climate for the return of foreign investment.

Casting their ballots at the elegant Dasmarinas Town Hall, some Arroyo supporters said winning the election would give her the credibility she has been lacking since she assumed office with the backing of the military and the popular rebellion, which is known as EDSA after a highway where mass protests were staged.

About 10 miles away in the poor district of Tondo, residents cast their votes at the rundown Rosauro Almario school where thousands of discarded ballot papers littered the floors.

Here, Poe’s supporters hoped for the defeat of the president.

“She only stole her seat,” said Fernando Pinuliar, 39, who works as a driver. “The people did not vote for her in that position. We are presuming that she will cheat to grab power again because she did it before.”

Although Poe campaigned on generalities and never offered a program, his backers feel certain the actor would revive the economy, provide jobs and housing and eliminate corruption.

“His heart is for the poor,” Pinuliar said.