Box office, well chilled

Jeff Blake, the vice chairman of Sony Pictures Entertainment, summed it up this way: “The summer did not work out the way we hoped.”

Although he was talking about his own studio, it applied to the rest of Hollywood as well.

Summer’s not officially over, but much of the industry has already written off what is traditionally one of the busiest stretches of the year: Despite a decades-long upward trend, the season’s attendance is off about 10% from last year, and is at its lowest level since 2000.

The deficit is nothing a few blockbusters or a handful of modest hits couldn’t take care of -- and hopes remain high for “The 40 Year-Old Virgin” and the suspense thriller “Red Eye” -- but it hasn’t happened yet.

Worse, Hollywood has been hard-pressed to walk away with any lessons.

“This is definitely the most pontificated summer ever,” Universal Pictures Vice Chairman Marc Shmuger said.

What went wrong with this summer “is probably anybody’s guess,” said Toby Emmerich, president of production for New Line, adding that he thinks the downward trend has also “been a little bit exaggerated.”

The nature of the movie business is notoriously cyclical -- a couple years up, one or two down and then back up again. Every year has films that really connect with audiences and others that don’t, and this year simply has had more of the latter, these executives and other observers agreed.

Nonetheless, summer, which accounts for about 40% or more of the year’s movie business, is a critical time for the studios. With a projected overall gross of $3.7 billion, summer 2005 will be at least 7% to 10% behind last year in terms of dollars as well, according to tracking firm Exhibitor Relations.

The year-to-date haul isn’t looking much better: It’s about $5.6 billion versus $6 billion at this time in 2004, according to another tracking firm, Nielsen EDI Inc. Several highly anticipated movies are still on their way, but it remains to be seen whether “Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire,” “The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe” and “King Kong” can turn the trend around.

Those films that have risen to the top this summer -- the bona fide blockbusters and the unexpected hits -- suggest that audiences are ready and willing to plunk down their money when they believe it’s worth it.

“Whenever we give ‘em a movie they like, they come out,” said Hutch Parker, president of 20th Century Fox, the only studio so far that has passed the $1-billion worldwide mark this year.

Take the summer’s sequels and remakes: Grosses for summer’s top films indicate they work, despite criticism about Hollywood’s proclivity for recycling material.

Warner Bros. reinvigorated a cherished franchise with “Batman Begins.” The studio’s other big success was Tim Burton’s version of “Charlie and the Chocolate Factory,” with Johnny Depp as the eccentric candy mogul Willy Wonka.

There’s not much point in generalizing about the rest of the summer’s slate.

Two of the season’s biggest and costliest flops -- Sony’s “Stealth” and DreamWorks’ “The Island” -- have led to much hand-wringing about the action and sci-fi genres, yet audiences flocked to 20th Century Fox’s “Star Wars: Episode III Revenge of the Sith” and Paramount’s “War of the Worlds.”

Prestige projects from highly respected directors unexpectedly faltered as well, as did movies that were roundly loved by the critics. Ridley Scott’s swords-and-sandals epic “Kingdom of Heaven” was a major disappointment, Nora Ephron’s modern-day take on witchery, “Bewitched,” failed to work much magic, and Ron Howard’s acclaimed Depression-era boxing drama, “Cinderella Man,” fell flat.Often, it was the quirky and the offbeat that proved to be a summer highlight.

The Warner Independent Pictures release “March of the Penguins” -- a documentary about the sheer will to survive -- is well on its way to becoming one of the summer’s three most lucrative movies based on what they brought in at the box office relative to what they cost to acquire or produce. “March of the Penguins” cost Warner Independent $1 million to acquire and another $600,000 to rework for U.S. audiences, and it has grossed almost $38 million.

It joins “Crash” and “Wedding Crashers” in that enviable category. Lions Gate paid just $3.3 million to acquire “Crash,” a $6.5-million independent movie about alienated Angelenos that has so far taken in $53 million.

“It’s great to see non-formulaic films succeed so well,” said Tom Ortenberg, president of Lions Gate Releasing.

New Line Cinema’s “Wedding Crashers,” an R-rated comedy, has taken in $164 million and counting. Its budget: $40 million. Emmerich was philosophical about the movie’s success: “It’s good to be right -- you’re not always right, so it feels good.”

No one has been able to pinpoint why audiences have steered clear of the movies this summer, although most of the usual standbys have been raised: chiefly, too many competing forms of entertainment. Some observers have suggested that more people are waiting to catch less compelling titles on DVD, although home-video sales overall have flattened out.

“People can afford to be more selective,” Emmerich said. Added Shmuger: “Motivating moviegoing behavior, it’s tougher than ever. The moviegoing habit, especially when the cycle is on the downturn, it’s harder to turn it around.”

Every studio executive had his own take on what wisdom the summer has imparted.

“I think it’s that too many of the movies felt too familiar,” said Warner Independent’s Mark Gill. As “Revenge of the Sith” and “War of the Worlds” proved, “spectacle works.” Aside from that, what’s needed is “something provocative that gets people to go.”

Emmerich said too many movies lacked the “urgency” needed to drive people to theaters. That left the field wide open for movies such as Paramount’s “Four Brothers,” which landed atop this weekend’s box office with $20.7 million.

“Action this summer was a pretty cold deck,” said Sony’s Blake, who is also president of worldwide distribution and marketing for Columbia TriStar Pictures. The genre needs to be spiced up, he said, like Fox and New Regency’s “Mr. & Mrs. Smith,” an odd blend of action, romance and comedy that proved a box office hit.

Even efforts to dissect summer disappointments didn’t provide a surefire answer.

“So much is defined by whether we succeed on a case-by-case basis,” Fox’s Parker said.

With “Kingdom of Heaven,” Parker said executives debated whether they were “coming too late in a cycle of historical epics, on the heels of ‘Troy’ and ‘Alexander’ ” and how to distinguish the film. “We didn’t succeed as effectively in making the picture something people [in the U.S.] would choose to embrace,” Parker said. “We also knew that the film would be easier to deliver to the international market,” where it has taken in more than triple its domestic number.

As for Universal’s “Cinderella Man,” Shmuger conceded that publicity about Russell Crowe’s not-so-behind-the-scenes behavior while promoting the film “complicated it for sure. Right as people were getting the word about how good the film was it sent a chaotic jolt through that. A Depression-era adult drama is tough subject matter with which to reach a broad audience. This made it even tougher,” although Tom Cruise’s off-the-set antics don’t appear to have hurt “War of the Worlds.” Executives inside and outside Universal have also debated the wisdom of gambling with a mid-June release date, although a counterintuitive July strategy worked in the past with movies such as “Seabiscuit” and “Road to Perdition.”

“Cinderella Man” is “still the highest-grossing drama of the year,” Shmuger hastened to add.

Whatever the reasons for the malaise, executives said it’s the studios’ job to turn things around.

“It’s our job next summer as an industry,” Blake said. “Everybody wants people excited to see at least one movie each week.”

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Summer movies: the recap

Summer’s over for Hollywood or darned near it. The season started with a whimper -- “Cinderella Man” -- and so far is going out with duds -- “Stealth,” “The Island.” But “Wedding Crashers” enlivened the party, and prospects are bright for “The 40 Year-Old Virgin” next weekend. “Red Eye” looks promising as well. Over the summer, there also have been big hits and some phenomenal successes from the unlikeliest of movies.

(Numbers, in millions, are rounded to the nearest figure. Cost and gross figures are estimates, and typically about 50% or a bit more of a film’s theatrical revenues flow back to its distributor. Theaters keep the rest.)

*--* Disasters Cost to make or purchase Domestic gross The Island $124 $34 Stealth $135 $30 Dashed hopes Bewitched $85 $62 Cinderella Man $88 $61 Kingdom of Heaven $140 $47 Dreams come true Wedding Crashers $40 $164 March of the Penguins $2 $38 Crash $3 $53 Safe bets The Longest Yard $80+ $157 Monster-in-Law $60 $83 Herbie: Fully Loaded $50 $64 Wish fulfillment Batman Begins $150+ $202 Madagascar $110+ $190 Mr. & Mrs. Smith $126 $183 Fantastic Four $100+ $148 Hustle & Flow $9 $21 Cash cows Star Wars: Episode III $113 $378 Revenge of the Sith War of the Worlds $133 $229 Charlie and the Chocolate $150 $184 Factory

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Cost estimates do not take into account tax breaks and other production incentives that may reduce expenditures on films made outside the U.S.

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Weekend Box Office

The revenge film “Four Brothers” was No. 1 this weekend but the overall slump continued, with business for the top 12 films down 16% from a year ago. Preliminary results (in millions) based on studio projections.

*--* Movie 3-day gross Total Four Brothers $20.7 $20.7

The Skeleton Key 15.8 15.8

The Dukes of Hazzard 13 57.5

Wedding Crashers 12 164.1

Deuce Bigalow: European Gigolo 9.4 9.4

Charlie and the Chocolate Factory 7.3 183.8

March of the Penguins 6.7 37.6

Sky High 6.1 43.3

Must Love Dogs 4.6 34.6

The Great Raid 3.4 3.4

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Source: Nielsen EDI Inc.

Los Angeles Times