The Gaza gamble

ISRAEL HAS OCCUPIED the Gaza Strip since its lightning-quick victory in the Six-Day War of 1967. In the subsequent 38 years, no matter which party was in power, settlements in the territory bordering the Mediterranean were considered essential to Israel’s security. But on Monday, in a historic reversal of policy, soldiers fanned out through Gaza, ordering Israelis to abandon their homes.

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon decided in December 2003 to pull out of Gaza. An architect of the settlement strategy, Sharon won election that year with a campaign that included his pledge to remain in the territory. But he changed course after deciding that it was too difficult and costly for the army to defend so few settlers among so many Palestinians. About 8,500 settlers live in Gaza, many in neighborhoods of red tile-roofed homes reminiscent of Los Angeles suburbs. Most of the 1.3 million Palestinians live jammed together in ramshackle apartments.

Sharon’s new strategy gambles that giving the territory to the Palestinians as part of their eventual state will make Israel more secure. If he wins the bet, both Israel and Palestinians will benefit.

Sharon is also ordering withdrawals from four settlements in the West Bank with fewer than 1,000 residents. Palestinians fear that other West Bank settlements, home to more than 200,000 Israelis, will be forever Israeli. The ones closest to Jerusalem probably will, but Israel needs to ensure that an eventual Palestinian state is not a collection of isolated villages. A viable nation needs to be connected in a way that lets people and goods move freely.

Most Israelis support the pullout, but it’s unpopular among many settlers -- some of whom set up roadblocks to soldiers’ vehicles. Eviction notices were delivered Monday; the withdrawal is expected to last several weeks. Sharon faces opposition to the pullout inside his Likud Party as well.

Israel has withdrawn from occupied land before, giving up territory in the Sinai, south of Gaza, to Egypt in 1982 after the two nations signed a peace treaty. Relations between the two countries since then have often been frosty, but Egypt is helping Palestinians maintain an informal truce with Israel and will post troops between Gaza and the Sinai. The U.S. also has been important in pushing Israel and the Palestinians to negotiate in good faith.

The Palestinian Authority of Mahmoud Abbas has urged Palestinians not to wildly celebrate the Israeli withdrawal. That caution will probably not be heeded; Hamas is already claiming its terror attacks on Israelis forced the withdrawal. That ignores the reality that since Palestinians renewed their assaults on Israelis nearly five years ago, three times as many Palestinians as Israelis have been killed. Abbas has long said the uprising was a mistake.

Israel traded land for peace in the Sinai. If Abbas can assert control over Gaza and prevent attacks on Israelis outside the territory, he will get U.S. support in petitioning Israel to continue the trade and give up West Bank settlements. That would go far toward the goal of two states living side by side in peace.