Slower Job Growth Seen

The pace of job creation in California should slow in this year’s first quarter because of slower growth in the stock market, exports and the national economy, a forecasting group said Monday.

The prediction by the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research at Chapman University in Orange is based on an aggregation of data that researchers have dubbed the California Employment Indicator.

This number, derived from the performance of the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index, gross national product, real exports and the state’s construction spending, has closely tracked California employment numbers for decades.

The indicator came in at 119.2, down slightly from 123 in the fourth quarter, said Esmael Adibi, director of the Anderson Center. As a result, he said, “we are anticipating a slightly slower pace of job creation.”

Though the indicator points to continuing net positive job creation, its fall would end five consecutive quarters of accelerating job growth for the state, Adibi said.

Adibi also said he expected the state Employment Development Department to revise upward last year’s job numbers when it released its employment report this month.