Shiite and Kurdish Slates Win 75% of Votes in Iraq

A popular Shiite Muslim slate and a Kurdish bloc captured almost 75% of the vote in Iraq’s landmark election, a momentous power shift in the heart of the Middle East, according to provisional results released Sunday. The tally also confirmed minimal participation in the poll by Iraq’s long-dominant Sunni Arabs.

Sunday’s results validated widespread projections that the Shiite slate led by a cleric with ties to Iran finished first in the Jan. 30 poll, garnering almost half the votes in the election for a 275-member transitional national assembly. Although it almost doubled the total of the second largest vote-getter, the Shiite list of candidates fell just short of securing the majority of votes despite its leaders’ predictions.

But the slate should emerge with slightly more than half of the representatives in the assembly, where seats will be assigned under a complex formula. This will require the top vote-getting bloc to make alliances with other slates to secure the two-thirds majority needed to select a three-member presidency council charged with naming a new prime minister.

A Kurdish coalition finished second with about a quarter of the votes, ensuring the Kurds will have significant roles in key government posts and in drafting the constitution, the chief tasks of the new assembly.

Finishing a distant third was a ticket headed by Iyad Allawi, who was approved by the U.S. as the current interim prime minister. Allawi’s slate won almost 14% of the votes. A secular Shiite with longtime links to the CIA, Allawi is said to be lining up allies in a bid to be named prime minister in the new government.

Even before the final results were in, observers say, backroom deals were being cut for the top jobs in a nation where billions of dollars in U.S. aid has failed to quell a raging insurgency, tame chronic unemployment and fix a devastated infrastructure.

The first complete tally from last month’s vote revealed that 8.5 million Iraqis cast ballots, a turnout rate of 58%. But in Al Anbar province, the war-ravaged Sunni heartland to the west of the capital, only 2% of eligible voters cast ballots, results showed. Electoral authorities are giving parties three days to file complaints before certifying the results of Iraq’s first multiparty balloting in more than half a century.

President Bush welcomed Sunday’s results.

“I congratulate the Iraqi people for defying terrorist threats and setting their country on the path of democracy and freedom,” Bush said in a statement issued by the White House. “And I congratulate every candidate who stood for election and those who will take office once the results are certified.”

But it was probably not the election result the Bush administration had hoped for when it decided to invade Iraq almost two years ago and topple the secular regime of Saddam Hussein.

Known as the United Iraqi Alliance, the Shiite slate is a diverse group led by a black-turbaned cleric, Abdelaziz Hakim, who spent time as an exile in Iran. It includes secular Shiites, some Sunni sheiks and adherents of firebrand Shiite preacher Muqtada Sadr, who has battled the U.S. occupation and been at odds with the Shiite political establishment in the holy city of Najaf.

“There’s a possibility that they’ll stay united, and I think there’s a possibility that they’ll break apart,” a senior Western official said of the Shiite-led slate.

Shiites are believed to make up about 60% of Iraq’s population. They and Kurds were long repressed under the regime of Hussein, which favored Sunni Arabs.

For decades, Sunni Arab dominance in Iraq had been viewed in Arab capitals and much of the West as a bulwark against the neighboring Shiite Muslim state of Iran and its theocratic regime.

In this election, however, the turbaned image of Iranian-born Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, spiritual leader of Iraq’s Shiites, adorned campaign posters and inspired millions of historically disenfranchised followers to vote for the United Iraqi Alliance.

“We have witnessed happy and marvelous episodes,” declared an exultant interim Vice President Ibrahim Jafari, now a candidate for prime minister and, like many leaders of the Shiite bloc, a longtime exile in Iran.

“We still have the future ahead of us,” he told an Arabic language television station.

Jafari and other leading Shiite politicians have denied any intention to implement an Iranian-like regime, a fear voiced by many here and elsewhere in the Arab world. But Shiite leaders have stressed the need to recognize Iraq’s essential Islamic “character” in forming a new government. It remains uncertain how that recognition will play out in the new constitution.

The Bush administration hopes that a representative government in Iraq will be independent of Iran and will gradually drain support from the insurgency -- eventually allowing for a withdrawal of U.S. troops. Newly trained Iraqi units should be able to take over much of the fight within a year or so, U.S. officials say. The insurgency is expected to drag on for years, a top U.S. diplomat conceded recently.

After the election results were announced in the convention center in the heavily barricaded Green Zone in central Baghdad, several mortar shells or rockets struck the U.S.-controlled area. There was no word on casualties.

Neither the Shiites nor the Kurds have backed demands from Sunni Arab politicians and others that the U.S. set a timetable for withdrawing its troops. U.S. officials say such a timetable would be playing into the insurgents’ hands.

The big losers in the election, as expected, were Sunni Arabs, who had ruled Iraq for decades. Sunni Arabs provide most of the recruits for Iraq’s insurgency. It remains unknown whether the election results will further alienate them or prompt reconciliation with the new, U.S.-backed transitional government.

“It’s unfortunate that large areas of Iraq and large segments of the Iraqi population were disenfranchised,” Adnan Pachachi, a senior Sunni politician who ran on a Sunni slate that fared poorly, told CNN. “I have a feeling that many of the Sunni parties that boycotted

Shiite leaders spoke of reconciliation and vowed to reach out to Sunni Arabs.

“We are all calling on others ... to join us in forming a government of national unity,” Hussein Shahristani, a leader of the Shiite-dominated list and another prospective prime minister, told reporters.

Reaching out to Sunni Arab representatives will be crucial, as Sunnis -- like Kurds and Shiites -- can block any constitution by securing two-thirds of the votes in three provinces in a referendum scheduled for Oct. 15. That constitution will set the terms for an election for a permanent government slated to be held in December.

The various groups in the new assembly have conflicting agendas that could hinder coalition building. The Shiite and Kurdish slates, for instance, disagree on several key issues, including the role of religion in government. Shiite leaders are believed to be cool to Kurdish demands for more autonomy in their northern region, especially the city of Kirkuk and its surrounding oil fields. The Kurds, in turn, are largely secular and generally unreceptive to Shiite moves to bolster religious authority.

The United Iraqi Alliance’s slate includes Ahmad Chalabi, the onetime Pentagon favorite turned U.S. pariah because of alleged leaks of confidential information to Iran -- an allegation denied by Chalabi, a secular Shiite. He is despised by many Sunni Arabs because of his zeal in rooting out former members of Hussein’s Baath Party from the Iraqi government.

Both the Shiites and Kurds are keen to purge many ex-Baathists from the government, a process known as de-Baathification. But such a move seems likely to aggravate Sunni Muslims already marginalized in the transitional government. Sunni leaders have called for a halt to de-Baathification.

On Sunday, the Kurds were lobbying for one of their leaders, Jalal Talabani, to become the nation’s largely ceremonial president, and are also said to have their eyes on slots in the defense, interior and other ministries.

“We are the second most powerful list, and it is our right to have our share,” said Imad Ahmed, a Kurd who is deputy prime minister of the Kurdistan regional government. “If the security situation were better we would have achieved more.”

The Kurdish-led alliance captured almost 60% of the vote in the northern province. Exultant Kurds, victims of a brutal ethnic-cleansing campaign during Hussein’s rule, celebrated their victory Sunday on the streets of harshly divided Kirkuk.

“This is a historical day for Iraqis,” declared Shiar Jabar, a 45-year-old Kurd who had tears in his eyes as he spoke of sons lost during Hussein’s rule.

Ethnic Arabs and Turkmens have complained bitterly that Kurds have cashed in on their close U.S. ties to wrest control of the mixed city.

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Iraq’s election results

Provisional results released Sunday by Iraqi election officials showed that 58% of the country’s 14 million eligible voters participated in the Jan. 30 vote. But turnout varied widely from region to region. The United Iraqi Alliance, a Shiite slate, was the top vote-getter.

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Overall votes

United Iraqi Alliance (Shiite) 48%

Kurdistan Alliance (Kurd) 26%

Iraqi List (secular Shiite) 14%

Other 12%

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Seats won

Seats in the 275-seat national assembly will be divided based on the percentage of votes received by each slate. But because of a complex formula that excludes parties that received small numbers of votes, other parties will receive slightly more seats than anticipated.

Slate: Seats

United Iraqi Alliance: 140

Kurdistan Alliance List: 75

Iraqi List: 40

Iraqis: 5

Turkomen Iraqi Front: 3

National Independent Elites and Cadres Party: 3

Communist People’s Union: 2

Islamic Kurdish Society: 2

Islamic Labor Movement in Iraq: 2

National Democratic Alliance: 1

Rafidain National List: 1

Reconciliation and Liberation Entity: 1

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Next key dates in Iraq’s transition to democracy

Mid-February: Target for national assembly to convene. Will name presidential council, which picks prime minister, subject to assembly’s approval.

Aug. 15: Deadline for assembly to draft permanent constitution.

Oct. 15: National referendum on draft constitution.

Dec. 15: If constitution approved, national election for permanent government. If charter rejected, elections for new transitional assembly.

Dec. 31: Permanent government seated, if constitution in place.

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Sources: CIA, Associated Press

Contributing to this report were Times special correspondents Said Rifai, Salar Jaff and Caesar Ahmed in Baghdad; Ali Windawi in Kirkuk; Saad Fakhrildeen in Najaf; Hassan Halawa in Samawa and other special correspondents in Mosul and Baghdad.