An English Channel Tempete

The English? “I love them, some of my best friends are English,” says my left-leaning, politically correct French son-in-law. We all know what that phrase really means: The English and the French just don’t like each other. And not for the first time, the future of Europe may be affected by the tendency of either country to do the opposite of what the other is doing.

The English think of the French as provincial, shifty, unwashed and very bad at making correct change. The French, of course, think exactly the same things about the English, with some extra complaints thrown in about the food, the arrogance, the vice anglaise. (They were uncharacteristically charitable about Camilla Parker Bowles, however, ready to forgive her size and dowdiness, or even to find it all endearingly “tres British,” in view of her status as a symbol of the triumph of love.)

Given all the historical rivalries, the coalescence of Europe as a political and trading bloc has been a counterintuitive triumph, but it may be slightly unraveling over the issue of the proposed European constitution. The mistrust between England and France especially has significance in the matter of the upcoming May 29 constitutional referendum in France.

As matters stand, the French people are likely to reject the constitution, despite a massive oui campaign by the politicians. Will the stigma of being the spoiler of Europe yet again weigh with the French to induce a oui vote at the last minute, as it did in the case of the Treaty of Maastricht? Might the French turn around and vote for it if they believe the British might vote no? Will a non in France induce the British to vote for it to distinguish themselves from their ancient enemies?

There were enough problems already between France and Britain. For one thing, there’s a new sensitivity about language. “By all means, your child should learn a second language,” says a French women’s magazine. “Above all, German, Italian, Spanish or even Portuguese.” Never mind English, it continues sourly: Given the global predominance of English, that will take care of itself.

The power of the English language in a time when French is declining is one of the things that rankles France and has honed its suspicions about enhancing the power of Brussels bureaucrats.

The British, on the other hand, have a sentimental attachment to the pound, worth almost $2 U.S. today, the result of which seems (to an American, with our pitiful currency) to make everything cost far too much: bottle of nail polish in Paris, 6 euros (nearly $9,) bottle of nail polish in London, 6 pounds (nearly $12). Yet the British have so far rejected the euro, one of many things threatened if the monetary union should weaken after a rejection of the constitution.

Another thing citizens of both countries have against the constitution is that it’s backed by leaders unpopular with their own people, Tony Blair and Jacques Chirac, the former disliked by the British for his pro-American, pro-Bush, pro-Iraq-war stance, the latter for reasons harder for an outsider to fathom; it just may be that no leader since Charles de Gaulle and Francois Mitterrand can make it very long with the French. Behind Chirac’s unpopularity lurks an even more difficult issue: not his unindictable status for corruption -- the French can live with that -- but the wish of Turkey to join the EU. In Germany and France, prime ministers and presidents see masses of welcome Turkish laborers. French people see job loss, head scarves and honor killings on the streets of Paris.

A “no” vote from either France or Britain would be the end of the constitution but not the end of the concept. The countries are today linked by various treaties, if not a constitution, that will let them go on functioning as a trade and currency bloc, but they would be wounded in their ability to tackle the seriously unpopular issues of Turkey in the EU, Islam, farm subsidies and national deficits.

It remains to be seen how the reelection of the quietly pro-Europe, pro-euro Blair after a campaign that conspicuously avoided raising the subject of the constitution will affect the notoriously contrary French two weeks from now.