The West Signals Patient Approach on Iran

Western countries trying to persuade Iran to give up technology that can be used to make nuclear weapons have decided to let negotiations continue rather than force a confrontation with Tehran at this week’s meeting of the U.N. nuclear agency, diplomats indicated Tuesday.

The International Atomic Energy Agency’s governing board is to meet Thursday in Vienna to discuss whether Iran has complied sufficiently with a September resolution. If board members were to determine that Iran has fallen short, they could refer the country to the United Nations Security Council for consideration of sanctions.

Despite Iran’s refusal to freeze its efforts to develop nuclear fuel cycle technology, Western countries are signaling that they are unlikely to press for referral because they want to encourage negotiations underway between Iran and Russia.

They also are hoping that Iran will return to talks with Britain, France and Germany.

At a Tuesday briefing, Gregory Schulte, the U.S. ambassador to international organizations in Vienna, made no mention of a push for referral at this week’s meeting and instead publicly endorsed Russia’s involvement in the talks and the efforts by the three European Union nations, known as the EU-3, to find a negotiated solution.

“We strongly support the effort of the EU-3 to broaden the international consensus,” he said. “We think it is very important [that] the EU-3 has worked with Russia to bring additional pressure to their [negotiations].”

The focal point of the talks with Russia concerns the sensitive process of enriching uranium. Enriched uranium can be used either in nuclear weapons or power plants. Iran contends that its nuclear program is for generating electricity, but the U.S. and other nations fear it is secretly trying to develop atomic weapons.

Moscow has proposed that the raw uranium that Iran is converting into gas at its plant in Esfahan be enriched at a plant in Russia. Iran would have a substantial financial interest in the Russian plant.

In exchange for giving up direct control over the most sensitive part of the nuclear fuel cycle, Iran would also get political, economic and technological aid from the European Union.

President Bush said last week that he backed the Russian initiative. The European nations, plus Russia and Iran, are expected to meet Dec. 6 for further talks, said an IAEA official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. Iran has sent mixed signals in response to Russia’s offer.

If the EU and the United States accept the Russian proposal, as they appear ready to do, they would be backtracking from their position that Iran has to give up all aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle -- including converting uranium yellowcake into gas.

However, with Iran now converting its second batch of yellowcake into gas and Western countries continuing diplomatic efforts, it appears that they have reconciled themselves to the idea of Iran possessing and using technology at the early stage of the nuclear cycle.

The EU and the United States are also willing to delay a Security Council referral because it seems doubtful that the IAEA board, which typically operates on the basis of consensus, would endorse such a move with Russia still in talks with Iran. Even if a majority of board members approved a referral, Russia and China would probably abstain or vote against sanctions on the Security Council -- leaving in question the effectiveness of such a move.

At its September meeting, the IAEA board was divided on whether to even consider sending Iran to the Security Council; 12 of the 35 members abstained from a vote on the resolution that set in motion the mechanism for referral, and one country, Venezuela, voted against it.

“The American language isn’t tough lately, which reflects ... that the administration is trying to signal to Iran and Russia that the U.S. is not on the warpath and that it’s not a repeat of Iraq,” said George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, who has followed the negotiations. “A lot of countries are worried about a repeat of Iraq, and their sense is that once you get to the Security Council, it’s a slippery slope,” he said.

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Times staff writer Maggie Farley at the United Nations and special correspondent Julia Damianova in Vienna contributed to this report.