Ford is expected to drop to the No. 3 spot in sales

Ford Motor Co. will slip to become the No. 3 automaker in the United States next year as Japanese rival Toyota Motor Corp. powers ahead in the industry’s largest market, according to a sales forecast released Thursday.

Edmunds.com, which provides information on the U.S. auto market, said Toyota would overtake Ford by mid-2007 in sales volume.

Toyota has outpaced Ford in monthly sales three times this year.

Ford sales through November were down 7.6% from the first 11 months of 2005, giving the automaker a 17.4% share of the U.S. market. Toyota, with 13.3% of the market through November, recorded a 12.5% sales increase from 2005.

Ford is struggling with mounting losses in North America. The automaker, based in Dearborn, Mich., has said it is aiming to hold its overall share of the U.S. light vehicle market at 14% to 15%, including fleet sales, as it restructures by shutting 16 plants and cutting more than 50,000 jobs.

Ford expects its market share to decline next year as it is trying to pull away from sales of vehicles to car rental companies that typically carry steep discounts and focus on more profitable showroom sales.

The automaker has ended production of its Taurus sedan, a model that was sold almost exclusively to fleet buyers in its final months.

In all, Santa Monica-based Edmunds expects light vehicle sales to be flat in 2007, with sales near expected 2006 levels of 16.5 million.

“Gas prices will be a leading factor in how consumers choose what vehicles they purchase in the coming year,” said Jesse Toprak, Edmunds’ executive director of industry analysis.

The firm predicts that Toyota’s new Tundra pickup, which is expected to be in showrooms in February, will take a chunk of large-truck market share from the domestic U.S. automakers.