Aristide’s Former Ally May Be Turning Away

Robert Manuel doesn’t say much, but his omnipresence at the side of President-elect Rene Preval speaks volumes about the next head of state’s newfound independence.

Manuel was national security chief in the first years of Preval’s 1996-2001 presidency but was forced to resign after a crackdown on drug traffickers netted some loyalists of Jean-Bertrand Aristide, who served as president before and after Preval. Manuel fled to Central America under threat of assassination, and the drug gangs pressed their point by killing the man expected to succeed him, Jean Lamy.

Preval was regarded by many analysts as an Aristide puppet during his term in office, and they viewed the pressure to replace Manuel as a humiliating act of interference. But now Aristide is the one living in exile, and in bringing Manuel back, Preval appears to be sending a message that Aristide shouldn’t count on an invitation to return home any time soon.

Timothy Carney, acting U.S. charge d’affaires, was ambassador to Haiti during Preval’s first term. He recalls the now 63-year-old agronomist as someone who prefers to surround himself with capable lieutenants rather than toadies.

“The popular view is that he was held down and held back by Aristide because Aristide couldn’t brook any possible rival,” Carney said. The Feb. 7 election “showed two things: First, that Preval is his own man, and second, it marked the reality of Aristide being a man of the past.”

As the ballots were counted, the Provisional Electoral Council worked out a compromise to overcome problems with an inordinately high number of blank and invalid ballots, a redistribution that allowed Preval to garner more than 50% of the vote and avoid a runoff. Since then, the reclusive victor has been talking with friends and foes alike as he explores potential Cabinet appointments.

Among those with whom Preval has met were Haitian Chamber of Commerce President Reginald Boulos; peasant leader Jean Chavannes Jeune, who ran a distant fourth in the election; and activist Rene Monplaisir from the Cite Soleil slum of Port-au-Prince, the capital.

Tensions between Haiti’s slum-dwelling masses, who supported Aristide and Preval, and the business elite frequently roil its politics. But representatives of diverse communities have spoken publicly of the need for the next government to include a broad spectrum of society.

Some in Haiti’s small class of successful industrialists have already joined forces with Preval.

“He’s going to be one of the best presidents of Haiti because he listens to people,” said Pierre Leger, a producer of plant oils and employer of 27,000 farmers in the southern region of Les Cayes.

Others predict that the business community will collaborate with Preval, recognizing that to do otherwise would perpetuate the political paralysis and economic decline that have made Haiti the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere. Half the country of 8.5 million is illiterate; 70% or more are unemployed; and schools, roads and hospitals have fallen into ruins.

“When you have such a polarized society, elements of the private sector are very important,” said Lionel Delatour, a founder of the Center for Free Enterprise and Democracy think tank. “Mr. Preval has some reaching out to do, but there is also an interest and a commitment on the part of the private sector to reach out to Mr. Preval.”

Those holding the reins of industry have an interest in helping steer Haiti out of its traditional confrontation between rich and poor, Delatour said. But that legacy cannot be overcome and national reconciliation won’t even be attempted if Preval succumbs to pressure from some elements of his constituency to let Aristide return from exile, he said.

“If he does try to bring Aristide back, Preval will not finish his presidency,” Delatour predicted. “I think Mr. Preval is smart enough not to do that.”

Preval’s alliance with Monplaisir, a young Aristide loyalist with influence among the armed militants agitating for the ousted president’s return, suggests the president-elect has been working to shift their focus to other objectives. Monplaisir has expressed in recent radio interviews the need for the new government to work with the business elite to create jobs and repair the country’s ravaged infrastructure.

Diplomats say they have been clear that Aristide’s return would be regarded as a destabilizing influence that would discourage aid donors as well as foreign investors.

Preval has “always given fishy answers when asked about Aristide, but up to a certain moment he couldn’t say publicly what he told us,” said the ambassador of a South American country, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “He was pointing out to us that most of his projects and initiatives were abandoned by Aristide” when Aristide succeeded him.

That was among the reasons Preval withdrew from political life after his term ended.

“Preval was humiliated by Aristide. He fired all of his advisors and stopped his reforms,” a United Nations official observed, speculating that the president-elect has no real interest in bringing back a fiery populist who clamors for the spotlight.

Delatour said that Preval isn’t obligated to allow Aristide to return, even if many Haitians voted for him with that expectation.

“A politician’s first job is to get elected,” he said.

Preval surrounded himself during his low-key campaign with foreign-educated advisors, many with ties to other political factions and the private sector. Analysts expect to help him build bridges among the communities that Aristide always sought to keep separate.

Even Preval’s biggest doubters acknowledge that he should be given a chance to demonstrate what he can do as leader now that he’s out of Aristide’s shadow.

“He’s already spent five years in power and didn’t do very much. I really don’t expect very much from him now, either. But I’m hoping to be very wrong,” said Charles Henri Baker, a garment factory owner who finished third in the presidential race.

“Since he has been chosen to be president again, for my country’s sake I hope Mr. Preval can show us another view of what he can do.”