Modest Growth Seen for Region

Southern California will post a modest increase in economic activity in the next three to six months, according to an index to be released today.

Cal State Fullerton said its Southern California index of leading economic indicators rose 0.48% in the first quarter, rebounding from a revised 0.18% decline in last year’s fourth quarter.

The gain suggests that the state is likely to reverse job losses from March and April, although hiring won’t be robust, said Cal State Fullerton economist Adrian R. Fleissig, who compiled the index. The state lost a net 13,400 jobs in March and 2,600 jobs in April. Job creation in Southern California has been more robust than in Northern California since the 2001 recession.

All seven of the index’s components were positive, with the Pacific region consumer confidence index, regional building permits and the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index contributing the most to the overall gain. Also tracking in the plus side were regional unemployment, nonfarm employment, the interest rate spread and the real money supply.

The index projects economic activity for Los Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino, Riverside, Ventura and Imperial counties. It is comparable to the Conference Board’s index of leading indicators for the U.S. economy, which slipped 0.1% in April, suggesting slower growth for the nation in the months ahead.