U.S. growth may slow further, data suggest

Three pillars of the economy -- consumer confidence, orders for manufactured goods and home prices -- showed surprising cracks Tuesday, flashing signals that growth might slow more heading into the important holiday shopping season.

The New York-based Conference Board said its widely watched consumer confidence index fell to 102.9 in November from a revised reading of 105.1 in October. November’s figure was the lowest since August’s 100.2 and well below economists’ expectations of a 106 reading. The report was derived from responses through Nov. 14 to a survey mailed to 5,000 households.

That news arrived on the heels of a government report on durable goods that showed orders for big-ticket manufactured goods plunged 8.3% in October -- the largest drop in more than six years.

And the median sales price of an existing home in the U.S. dropped to $221,000 in October, a decline of 3.5% from a year ago, according to the National Assn. of Realtors.

It was the biggest year-over-year price decline on record for an asset that many Americans use as a gauge of their financial well-being. The median is the price at which half of all homes sold for more, half for less.

The reports let some air out of inflated hopes for a robust holiday shopping season. Economists still believe that it will be a decent season, however, because of lower gasoline prices, which have put more money in consumers’ pockets. Prices at the pump have dropped 80 cents a gallon, on average, since the start of August.

Consumers “are not feeling really good now,” said Gary Thayer, chief economist at A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc., although he added that they were feeling better than they did over the summer, when gasoline prices surged.

Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board Consumer Research Center, said “a more guarded short-term outlook” contributed to the decline in consumer confidence.

Franco said that despite the retreat, “the overall level of confidence remains favorable and continues to suggest that the economy will expand throughout the first half of next year.”

The group’s present situation index, which measures how shoppers feel now about economic conditions, declined to 123.6 from 125.1 in October. Its expectations index, which measures consumers’ outlook over the next six months, declined to 89.2 from 91.9 last month.