Iran’s nuclear claims raise fear, skepticism

Iran’s announcement Monday that it had achieved the capacity to enrich uranium on an “industrial scale” raises the fear that the Islamic Republic could manufacture a nuclear weapon within a year, but was met with deep skepticism from nuclear experts.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, speaking here at an annual commemoration of his nation’s nuclear program, described Iran as an established nuclear power.

“Iran is on the way to greatness, and nothing can stand in its way,” he told the assembled crowd of 500 dignitaries, which included representatives from at least 45 countries.

But Iran’s claim, including an assertion that it had fed gaseous uranium into 3,000 centrifuges to begin purifying nuclear material on an industrial scale, was quickly disputed by many experts and officials.

Independent experts largely portrayed the Iranian claim as a political statement designed to bolster both its international and domestic stature, rather than an indication that Tehran has reached a significant new milestone in its nuclear program.

A White House spokesman said the Bush administration was “very concerned” about the nuclear program. “Iran continues to defy the international community and further isolate itself by expanding its nuclear program, rather than suspending uranium enrichment,” said Gordon Johndroe, a spokesman for the National Security Council.

By presenting enrichment as an accomplished fact, Ahmadinejad can step back from his defiant statements and force a new starting point to negotiations with the West, analysts said.

“It’s very clever,” said George Perkovich, head of the nonproliferation program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington-based think tank. “They’re keeping their options open. They’re saying, ‘We’ve defied everyone. We’ve done it.’ They’re declaring victory.... That way they can suspend later and come into compliance. Or they can blast forward.”

Iran’s claim to be able to produce nuclear fuel on an “industrial scale” is purposefully vague, experts said, but it suggests that Iran is producing significant quantities of enriched uranium.

Asked by reporters whether all 3,000 centrifuges had been injected with uranium gas, nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani replied, “Yes.” The oblique manner in which Larijani made the milestone public raised suspicions about its veracity.

Few outside experts believe Iran has successfully installed and is operating such a large system. Western experts suggest Iran has no more than 1,000 such devices, which it can operate only part time. A report in February by the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, said Iran was able to operate about 328 centrifuges.

In the past, Iranian scientists have built and installed new centrifuges at a rate of 100 a month. Experts said it was highly unlikely that Iran had increased that rate substantially in recent weeks or achieved other technical breakthroughs crucial to running the “cascades” of linked centrifuges at extremely high speeds.

The final plan for the Natanz enrichment facility calls for the installation of 54,000 centrifuges.

“Most people believe they have not mastered enrichment technology,” said Matthew Bunn, a nuclear expert at Harvard University. “Nothing we heard today changes that.”

“To call this an industrial capability is a gross exaggeration,” said Joseph Cirincione, a nonproliferation expert at the Center for American Progress, a Washington think tank, and author of “Bomb Scare: The History and Future of Nuclear Weapons.”

“It’s a milestone, but it’s far short for the kind of capability you need to produce either fuel for a reactor or a weapon,” he said.

Iranian officials said it would be a few weeks before the number of centrifuges would be disclosed.

“To know of the number of centrifuges, one should wait for the next 20 days when IAEA inspectors present their reports,” Mohammed Saeedi, deputy head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, told reporters on the sidelines of the ceremony in Natanz, according to the official Islamic Republic News Agency.

But Gholamreza Aghazadeh, head of the Atomic Energy Organization, also said that Iran has “entered the phase of mass manufacturing of centrifuges,” which could indicate that the nation’s nuclear program is continuing to grow on several fronts.

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Not a surprise

The day’s announcements, punctuated by patriotic songs in the windowless hall accommodating the hundreds of guests, came as no surprise. Iran said months ago it would continue its headlong drive into the nuclear age despite growing financial pressure and diplomatic isolation. Iran had said it would reach what it called an industrial scale by late May.

The United Nations Security Council imposed limited sanctions on Iran in December, after it refused to halt its enrichment program and allow inspection of some parts of its facilities. Last month, the council imposed stricter sanctions.

On the heels of Tehran’s release of 15 British sailors and marines it detained in the Persian Gulf, Ahmadinejad continued to talk tough, threatening to withhold future cooperation with the IAEA if the West continued to try to thwart Iran’s ambitions.

“If the pressure from our enemies keeps up, we may revise our cooperation with the IAEA,” he said in his speech marking the second annual National Day for Nuclear Technology.

Under the terms of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty to which Tehran is a signatory, Iran has the right to produce enriched nuclear material provided its activities remain under the observation of international inspectors and don’t veer off into a weapons program.

But many Western officials and international nuclear inspectors suspect Iran is exploiting treaty loopholes to acquire nuclear weapons capability.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon urged Iran to comply with Security Council resolutions demanding an immediate suspension of uranium enrichment. “I sincerely hope that, even at this time, when the Iranian government is undergoing Security Council sanctions, that they should engage in dialogue,” he told reporters.

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Under close guard

Though open to inspectors and occasional visits by journalists, Iran’s nuclear program remains under close guard by three separate security forces. Antiaircraft guns and missile batteries surround the enrichment facility.

Engineers at the Natanz site, which was established less than a decade ago, said they are cut off from the outside world except for telephone calls during their monthlong stays at the facility. Support staff live in Natanz and other neighboring villages.

Pine and eucalyptus trees as well as red, white and green Iranian flags line the main boulevard of Natanz, about 150 miles south of the capital, Tehran. Gray, concrete single-story buildings serve as housing for Natanz employees, each unit equipped with chessboards, pingpong and foosball tables.

Iranian officials said they had little fear of an attack on the facility.

“Why on Earth should they attack?” said Mosa Ghorbani, a member of parliament close to Ahmadinejad. “We are doing scientific work. They will certainly not attack, though they keep bragging and intimidating Iran.”

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daragahi@latimes.com

Special correspondent Mostaghim reported from Natanz and Times staff writer Daragahi from Cairo. Staff writer Bob Drogin in Washington contributed to this report.