At the core of the deal, a question

A central premise of the ambitious nuclear deal with North Korea announced here Tuesday is that Pyongyang will shutter and then permanently dismantle its nuclear weapons operations in exchange for fuel oil, humanitarian aid, diplomatic recognition and an end to economic sanctions.

But within hours, huge potential pitfalls facing the agreement became apparent as North Korean state media referred in a terse dispatch to a “temporary suspension” of its nuclear facilities without mentioning comprehensive disarmament.

It’s too early to tell whether the mercurial North is already edging away from its commitments or simply conditioning its citizens for a turnaround after months of extolling the glories of its nuclear weapons program.

The questions over the communist regime’s motives are but one in a list of problems that must be overcome to reach the goal of a Korean peninsula free of nuclear weapons. These include the future of the North’s suspected uranium enrichment program and existing plutonium stockpiles, how much access international monitors will enjoy, issues with Tokyo over Pyongyang’s abduction of several Japanese citizens and the potential message the deal sends to other nuclear proliferators.

“Obviously, we have a long way to go, but we’re very pleased with this solid step forward,” a tired but satisfied Christopher Hill, the lead U.S. negotiator, said Tuesday. “This is not the end of the process. It’s the end of the beginning of the process.”

Under the first phase of the deal outlined this week, North Korea agreed to shut down and seal plutonium production and reprocessing activities at its main nuclear complex at Yongbyon within 60 days, allow international inspectors back into the country, participate in working groups and begin assembling a comprehensive list of its nuclear weapons and energy programs.

In return, North Korea will receive 50,000 tons of fuel oil, about a month’s worth of the North’s energy needs, and a pledge by the United States to lift financial sanctions within a month affecting a Macao bank that is holding about $24 million in North Korean assets.

Washington and Pyongyang will also start the process of removing the North from the U.S. list of nations that are said to sponsor terrorism, with the intention of establishing full diplomatic relations. The U.S. will initiate steps to eliminate sanctions under its Trading With the Enemy Act.

In a second, more protracted phase, the North stands to receive 950,000 tons of fuel oil or its equivalent in aid provided it agrees to dismantle the Yongbyon facility, compile a complete declaration of all its nuclear programs and disable all existing nuclear facilities, including reactors and reprocessing plants.

Test spurred action

Autocratic North Korea conducted a test of a nuclear device Oct. 9, resulting in a swift vote by the United Nations to enforce sanctions and, subsequently, a scramble to get negotiations back on track.

“I am pleased with the agreements reached today at the six-party talks in Beijing,” President Bush said in a statement read by Press Secretary Tony Snow.

Others said it will take time to build trust and circumvent impediments. “This is still the first quarter, there is still a lot of time to go on the clock,” Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said.

Japan expressed cautious praise for the agreement along with frustration that Tokyo’s primary concern, the North’s kidnapping of Japanese citizens beginning in the 1970s, received no mention in the final draft. The world’s second-largest economy has balked at funding early assistance, hoping the promise of future aid will spur bilateral negotiations.

“But no one here is optimistic about the probability that North Korea will denuclearize or resolve the abduction issue,” said Tomohiko Taniguchi, a spokesman for Japan’s Foreign Ministry. “North Korea is notorious for cheating on its agreements, even with the Chinese.”

In Israel, Vice Premier Shimon Peres said the aid-for-disarmament deal showed that sanctions could work, and he urged the international community to put similar pressure on Iran to drop its nuclear development program.

“Economic sanctions can really be effective, as evidenced by the change in the policy of North Korea,” he told Israel’s Army Radio.

The six negotiating partners agreed to meet for another round of talks March 19.

The price tag for the 1 million tons of fuel or its equivalent is estimated at about $300 million, a cost that would be borne equally by the United States, China, South Korea and Russia, with Japan remaining on the sidelines.

“I should say North Korea secured a pretty high price this time,” said Xia Liping, a professor with the Shanghai Institute for International Studies. “It’s worth it, though. It will certainly cost something to make North Korea drop its nuclear program.”

Others questioned why the Bush administration waited six years to drop its hard-line stance with the North and try diplomacy.

“It’s certainly better late than never,” said retired Army Lt. Gen. Robert Gard Jr. with Washington’s Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, an independent think tank. “But what were they thinking?”

Though the deal obliges North Korea to halt the production of new plutonium, it doesn’t immediately address its existing plutonium stockpile, which some estimate may be enough to make a dozen nuclear bombs. Hill acknowledged the lingering issue but said halting new production seemed like a good place to start, a view shared by others.

“You have to stop the program before you can reverse it,” said Mitchell Reiss, chief U.S. negotiator with North Korea from 1995 to 1999.

Another major concern is whether the North will allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog, into areas other than Yongbyon and whether it will fully disclose its nuclear activities, including a covert uranium enrichment program it has denied exists.

“We need to ensure that we know precisely the status of that,” Hill said.

Washington accused North Korea in late 2002 of having the uranium program in violation of a 1994 agreement, sparking the current nuclear crisis.

The big payoff if the deal’s many impediments can be bridged will be a North Korea less threatening and more integrated with the outside world.

“North Korea needs to open up and reform its economy to really ease tension on the Korean peninsula,” said Xia, the Shanghai professor.

Five working groups are to convene within 30 days to address denuclearization of the peninsula, normalization of North Korea-U.S. and North Korea-Japan relations, economic and energy cooperation and Northeast Asian security issues.

The breakthrough began to emerge in December after North Korea arrived in Beijing for talks but refused to negotiate, a U.S. official close to the process said.

On the last night of the talks a few days before Christmas, the U.S. sent an envoy to North Korea’s embassy in Beijing with a message that the U.S. was open to a bilateral meeting on lifting the financial sanctions.

A few days later, North Korea sent word back through New York channels that it was interested. This led to a three-day bilateral meeting in Berlin in mid-January in which the basic points of Tuesday’s deal were hammered out.

Suddenly, new demands

When the six nations sat down last week, however, North Korea made a variety of new demands, including an end to U.S. military exercises on the Korean peninsula.

It also insisted on huge grants of fuel oil or electricity, with the amount known in advance and stated publicly, rather than arranged in technical sessions under a confidential addendum, as originally envisioned.

As frustration mounted, Hill paid a visit Monday morning to the North Korean delegation. Using the metaphor of a traditional Korean ceramic cup that drains completely if you try to fill it too much, he urged the other side not to overreach.

“You have to be careful what you’re asking for here,” Hill told the North’s envoys, according to a senior U.S. official close to the negotiations.

This, combined with Hill’s growing readiness to walk out of the talks, may have convinced the North Korean team to back away from its extreme position, a senior U.S. official said.

“With North Korea, you’re never quite sure exactly what they want, although finally I got the impression they needed to see the 1 million [tons of fuel] figure,” Hill said.

Ultimately, the impasse helped pave the way for a more comprehensive two-stage deal, however, Hill said, involving 50,000 tons upfront and 950,000 tons in a second phase that covered genuine disarmament, potentially giving Pyongyang more incentives to go the distance.

By late Monday, an agreement had crystallized, leading to a final marathon session that stretched into early Tuesday morning.

Hill rejected the idea that the agreement sends an encouraging message to other proliferators.

U.S. hard-liners such as former U.N. Ambassador John R. Bolton have assailed the deal as encouraging to Iran.

“With nuclear weapons, [the North Koreans] do not buy prestige,” Hill said. “They do not buy influence. Frankly, they buy a lot of isolation.”

mark.magnier@latimes.com

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Yin Lijin of The Times’ Beijing Bureau and staff writers Bob Drogin in Washington, Jeffrey Fleishman in Moscow, Richard Boudreaux in Jerusalem and Bruce Wallace in Tokyo contributed to this report.

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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

Excerpts from the agreement

The parties agreed to take the following actions in parallel in the initial phase:

* The DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea] will shut down and seal for the purpose of [its] eventual abandonment the Yongbyon nuclear facility, including the reprocessing facility, and invite back IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] personnel to conduct all necessary monitoring and verification as agreed between the IAEA and the DPRK.

* The DPRK will discuss with other parties a list of all its nuclear programs as described in the joint statement [of Sept. 19, 2005], including plutonium extracted from used fuel rods, that would be abandoned pursuant to the joint statement.

* The DPRK and the U.S. will start bilateral talks aimed at resolving bilateral issues and moving toward full diplomatic relations. The U.S. will begin the process of removing the designation of the DPRK as a state sponsor of terrorism, and advance the process of terminating the application of the Trading With the Enemy Act with respect [to] the DPRK.

* The DPRK and Japan will start bilateral talks aimed at taking steps to normalize their relations in accordance [with] the Pyongyang Declaration, on the basis of the settlement of [their] unfortunate past and the outstanding issues of concern.

* Recalling Section 1 and 3 of the Joint Statement of Sept. 19, 2005, the parties agreed to cooperate in economic, energy and humanitarian assistance to the DPRK. In this regard, the parties agreed to the provision of emergency energy assistance to the DPRK in the initial phase. The initial shipment would be the equivalent of 50,000 tons of heavy fuel oil, which will start in the next 60 days.

The parties agreed on the establishment of ... working groups in order to carry out the initial actions and for the purpose of full implementation of the joint statement.

The parties agreed that all working groups will meet within the next 30 days.

During the period of the initial actions phase and in the next phase -- which includes provision by the DPRK of a complete declaration of all nuclear programs and disablement of all existing nuclear facilities, including graphite-moderated reactors and reprocessing plants -- economic, energy and humanitarian assistance up to the equivalent of 1 million tons of heavy fuel oil, including the initial shipment equivalent to 50,000 tons of heavy fuel oil, will be provided to the DPRK.

Once the initial actions are implemented, the six parties will promptly hold a ministerial meeting to confirm implementation of the joint statement and explore ways and means for promoting security cooperation in Northeast Asia.

The parties reaffirmed that they will take positive steps to increase mutual trust, and will make joint efforts for lasting peace and stability in Northeast Asia. The directly related parties will negotiate a permanent peace regime on the Korean peninsula at an appropriate separate forum.

The parties agreed to hold the sixth round of the six-party talks on March 19, 2007, to hear reports by the working groups and discuss action for the next phase.

Associated Press