Officials see Sunni plot to stoke flames

Bombings and shootings that killed more than 110 Shiite Muslim pilgrims observing a religious ritual Tuesday appear to be part of a Sunni insurgent strategy to rekindle sectarian warfare to levels that could derail the latest U.S.-led effort to stabilize Iraq.

U.S. military planners have been warning of spectacular attacks as Sunnis try to goad Shiite militias back into battle and destabilize Iraq’s Shiite-led government. Shiite militants have reined in their campaign of execution-style revenge killings since a joint U.S.-Iraqi security crackdown began in Baghdad last month.

A senior Pentagon official said insurgent groups might attempt attacks as devastating as last year’s bombing of the Golden Mosque in Samarra. The attack on the revered Shiite shrine has been blamed for setting off Iraq’s civil war.

“They are trying to provoke the Shia,” said the Pentagon official, who spoke on condition of anonymity when discussing internal planning. “My guess is they are going to try a repeat of Samarra. They may go back to Samarra and say, ‘We didn’t really level the place.’ Imagine that, perception-wise -- to go back to Samarra and finish the job.”

The attacks on Shiite civilians came on a day when the U.S. announced the deaths of nine American troops Monday in roadside bomb attacks on their convoys in northern Iraq.

Six soldiers were killed in one bombing and three in another. It was the deadliest day for U.S. troops in Iraq in nearly a month, the military said.

The soldiers were based in Tikrit, the birthplace of Saddam Hussein, north of Baghdad. The area is a Sunni insurgent stronghold. Further details were not available.

The U.S. military death toll stands at 3,185, according to icasualties.org, which tracks war-related deaths in Iraq.

More than 110 Shiites were reported killed in attacks in Hillah, Baghdad and Mosul.

Some were on their way to Karbala to participate in an annual celebration related to Ashura, one of the most important holidays on the Shiite calendar.

Shiite religious celebrations were largely suppressed under Hussein. Since his fall in 2003, public celebrations have become an important symbol of Shiite pride, but they also have become Sunni targets.

In the worst incident Tuesday, two suicide bombers walking among pilgrims in Hillah, south of Baghdad, detonated their explosive belts within two minutes of each other, killing at least 77 and injuring 127, local police said.

Witnesses said the first bomber walked near a large group of pilgrims and chanted prayers in an apparent effort to blend in with the crowd before detonating his bomb. The second blew himself up about 50 yards away.

Prime Minister Nouri Maliki, a Shiite, issued a statement condemning the attacks and extending condolences to the families of the victims, calling the bloodshed “horrendous.”

In Baghdad, officials said at least 35 people, believed to be Shiites, were killed by gunmen, car bombs and roadside bombs. An estimated 137 were injured.

Although the number of killings attributed to Shiite militias has begun to creep back up after a decline, U.S. military officials believe the joint security plan has so far dissuaded some Shiite militias from conducting reprisal attacks for the bombings carried out by Sunni groups.

Yet that very success has Pentagon planners worried that Sunni insurgents and members of the group Al Qaeda in Iraq will launch more sensational attacks in an attempt to intensify the civil war.

Such fears are not based on specific intelligence but on the belief that the militants are intent on drawing the majority Shiite population, which controls Iraq’s government, back into battle, officials said.

The senior Pentagon official said that new targets could include the Shiite mosques in Najaf or Karbala and that some fear the insurgents will try to assassinate Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the preeminent Shiite religious leader in Iraq.

In Hillah, Ali Khadum, a 26-year-old member of the Iraqi national guard, said people froze in shock after the first explosion, and then stampeded.

“Women and men were running in all directions screaming,” said Najiha Mohammed, 53, a homemaker who feeds and cares for the pilgrims. “Some of them were falling down. I think they were injured but they didn’t feel it because of the shock.”

Since the security crackdown in Baghdad began Feb. 13, the number of Iraqi killings has fallen slightly. According to the website icasualties.org, 1,531 Iraqi civilians and security forces were killed in February, compared with 1,802 in January.

In Washington, military officials describe a particularly complex situation in Baghdad as U.S. forces, the Shiite militias led by radical anti-American cleric Muqtada Sadr, and the Sunni insurgents, including foreign militants, adjust their strategies.

“This is a bit of a chess game,” said the senior Pentagon official. “We made a move, we are surging. He [Sadr] made a move, he is laying low. Meanwhile, Al Qaeda is moving.”

A military official in Baghdad said U.S. planners predicted both the Shiite militia strategy of curbing death squad executions and a Sunni strategy of attempting ever more spectacular bombings.

“Something that is truly going to attract public attention,” said the military official, who also spoke on condition of anonymity. “I don’t know what form it will take, but the intent is the media draw.”

As sectarian attacks have escalated in recent days, Iraqi security officials have continued to say the crackdown will be effective.

“Nothing is difficult or impossible,” said Quassim Mousawi, a spokesman for Iraqi officials carrying out the security plan. Once political and law enforcement efforts are fully underway, he said, “such attacks will be reduced.”

U.S. military officials say Shiite militias have reduced their attacks in the face of the new security operations and troop buildup.

Sadr’s Al Mahdi militia has ceded security outposts in Sadr City, its Baghdad stronghold, to the joint forces.

“When you see a downturn [in executions], you wonder if our operations are having an effect. You have got to think so,” said a senior defense official in Baghdad.

Publicly, Shiites say they will continue to comply with the plan even amid Sunni bombings.

“The Shiites have been used to having swords pointed at their necks,” said Fatah Sheik, a journalist and Sadr supporter. “The more ordeals they see, the more patience they show.”

Shiite patience could wither in the face of bombings on the scale of the Samarra attack or the assassination of a major Shiite religious figure. And some U.S. military officials believe there is little they can do to prevent a Sunni bombing campaign.

“Despite all our efforts,” said the senior Pentagon official, “we have not gotten to the point we can suppress those car bombs.”

julian.barnes@latimes.com

christian.berthelsen

@latimes.com

*

Barnes reported from Washington and Berthelsen from Baghdad. Times staff writers Peter Spiegel in Washington, Saif Hameed, Raheem Salman, Zeena Kareem and Tina Susman in Baghdad and special correspondents in Baghdad and Hillah contributed to this report. Times researcher Vicki Gallay also contributed.