It’s Curlin’s race to lose
Since he won the eighth Kentucky Derby in 1882, Apollo has stood alone.
The chestnut gelding is the only horse to have won the Derby after not having raced as a 2-year-old.
Now, 125 years later, Apollo may be about to have some company.
Curlin, who didn’t begin racing until Feb. 3, can win the 133rd Derby today at Churchill Downs, despite his lack of seasoning.
Many have already dismissed the chances of the Smart Strike colt because he has had only three starts. Some of the same skeptics didn’t like Barbaro a year ago because he hadn’t raced for five weeks before the Derby and no horse since Needles in 1956 had won the Derby off such a lengthy layoff.
Those people were silent when Barbaro rolled to a 6 1/2 -length triumph in the Derby, the largest margin since Assault won by eight lengths in 1946.
How Curlin fares in today’s Derby remains to be seen, but if he loses, it won’t be because he didn’t run as a 2-year-old or because he has run only three times. Simply, some other horse will have been better on this particular day.
If, however, Curlin runs as he did in Florida and Arkansas earlier this year, the rest of the field is running for second. Curlin was brilliant in his debut victory at Gulfstream Park in South Florida, leading throughout en route to a 12 3/4 -length victory over seven others.
Purchased by his current owners for a reported $3.5 million after that victory and turned over to trainer Steve Asmussen, Curlin showed versatility in his stakes debut in the Rebel at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark.
Held off the pace by jockey Robby Albarado in his first race around two turns, the chestnut responded beautifully, winning by 5 1/4 lengths after a four-wide sweep to the lead around the turn.
In the Arkansas Derby, he was even better. Never asked for his best, Curlin won by 10 1/2 lengths and had the look of a horse that could turn out to be a superstar.
His opposition in Arkansas has been questioned, and although he didn’t beat high-quality fields, it should be noted that Xchanger, who finished well behind him in the Rebel, returned to roll in the Federico Tesio last month in Maryland, and Flying First Class, soundly defeated in the Rebel and Arkansas Derby, was an easy winner of the Derby Trial a week ago.
If Curlin is to be beaten today, the most likely candidate is Street Sense. The son of Street Cry was brilliant the last time he ran at Churchill Downs, winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by 10 lengths Nov. 4. He has continued to train well over the surface and could become the first Juvenile winner to win the Derby.
Trainer Todd Pletcher has five runners as he seeks his first Derby victory and has his best chances with Scat Daddy and Any Given Saturday.
A son of Johannesburg, Scat Daddy is rarely mentioned as one of the top members of his class but he has won five of eight. He’s coming in off wins in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby, the same races Barbaro won a year ago before his smasher, and will be ridden by Edgar Prado, who is seeking a Derby repeat.
Any Given Saturday was disappointing in the Wood Memorial, but was only a nose behind Street Sense in a thrilling Tampa Bay Derby on March 17 and would not be the first horse to bounce back with a good race in the Kentucky Derby after a less than scintillating effort in his final prep.
Nobiz Like Shobiz was the choice of many when the year began, but he hasn’t progressed as expected and there was nothing visually impressive about his Wood win.
Like Smarty Jones and Barbaro, Hard Spun and Great Hunter are Pennsylvania-breds but the similarity between the 2004 and 2006 Derby winners and the two pretenders in 2007 ends there.
The concern with Circular Quay is the eight-week layoff between races and his style of running. He’s going to need a lot of racing luck.
Tiago won a weak Santa Anita Derby, and although he has more potential than Giacomo, his half brother who scored a shocking upset in this race two years ago, he doesn’t seem ready to beat the best of this group.
Cowtown Cat is improving for Pletcher, but other recent winners of the Illinois Derby -- namely, Sweetnorthernsaint and Greeley’s Galaxy -- haven’t fared well in Louisville and he will not get the same easy front-end trip he got a month ago at Hawthorne.
As for the others, thanks for participating and try to stay out of the way.
*