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Darfur peace talks in ‘serious trouble’

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Times Staff Writer

Darfur’s long-hobbled peace process has all but collapsed, principals here say, raising questions about the viability of a new U.N. peacekeeping force and the future of an international aid campaign approaching its sixth year.

Since a much-hyped Libyan peace conference fell apart last fall, a joint U.N.-African Union mediation effort has reported little progress in reaching a resolution or even getting players to the negotiating table.

“You hear nothing from them anymore,” said Sudanese political analyst Safwat Fanous, head of University of Khartoum’s political science department, about the mediators. “I think they’ve given up. There are no peace negotiations in the pipeline.”

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A chief negotiator said the peace effort was still alive, but would soon undergo an overhaul, including the appointment of a new top envoy and adoption of a streamlined agenda.

“No doubt the peace process is in serious trouble,” said Sam Ibok, the lead African Union mediator. “It’s not going anywhere.”

He said participants, including the Sudanese government and rebel movements, had lost confidence in the process and remained unable to overcome their mutual distrust. Both sides also suffer from internal divisions. The rebels have fractured into more than 20 groups, and the Arab-dominated administration of President Omar Hassan Ahmed Bashir has failed to formulate a clear Darfur strategy in conjunction with its power-sharing partner, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement, or SPLM.

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U.N. special envoy Jan Eliasson and his AU counterpart, Salim Ahmed Salim, whose joint leadership has come under fire, will soon be replaced by a single chief, Ibok said. In an effort to break the stalemate, future talks will focus on a short list of urgent issues, such as security, victim compensation and power-sharing, he said.

The stalemate comes amid a recent renewal of hostilities in some parts of Darfur, where violence and killings had significantly declined over the last two years.

Some worry that both sides are reverting to old habits in the conflict, which began in 2003 when Darfur rebels clashed with Sudanese forces and their allied militias. An estimated 200,000 people have died, mostly of disease and hunger.

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After a December offensive by the rebel group Justice and Equality Movement in West Darfur, the Sudanese military in early February bombed three cities, killing more than 100 people and causing more than 50,000 to flee. Rebels accused the government of additional bomb attacks last week, local media reported.

Government officials denied attacking civilians. They blamed the international community for failing to pressure rebel groups to join the peace process, noting that several rebel leaders boycotted October’s Libya talks.

“We are disappointed in the international community,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Ali Sadiq. “We still have no road map.”

Humanitarian groups in Darfur, where the world is spending nearly $1 billion a year in aid and an additional $2.5 billion for peacekeepers, say the lack of progress threatens their efforts, particularly if donors turn to other world emergencies.

“Darfur is pretty high profile,” said Kenro Oshidari, country director in Sudan for the World Food Program. “But it’s been going on for five years. I don’t think it’s sustainable.”

The peacekeeping mission is also at risk because its primary mandate is to enforce a peace deal that is nowhere on the horizon.

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The latest complication is next year’s planned national election. Rebels insist Darfur is too unstable to hold a vote, noting that more than 2.5 million people have been displaced. Since the region accounts for as much as one-fifth of Sudan’s population, they say balloting should not proceed. Many groups are threatening to block election efforts by force.

“We are not going to let the census or election take place,” said Tahir Elfaki, a Justice and Equality Movement official in London. “We have the means to do this. We are fighters.”

Political experts said rebel groups might also be concerned that they stand to lose power in a vote, particularly since most are unprepared for a political campaign, which would require that they transform their armies into parties.

“They’d be defeated,” said former Sudanese Prime Minister Sadek Mahdi, now head of the opposition Umma Party, which won the majority of Darfur votes in the last free election in 1986. “They have support for their cause, but not much political support. After an election, they wouldn’t have the same prominence.”

Mahdi’s party has threatened to boycott the national election if Darfur doesn’t participate, as some government officials have suggested. “Darfur has to be resolved before an election,” he said.

Hassan Turabi, another opposition leader and head of the Popular Congress party, said impending elections might help rejuvenate peace talks, particularly if the government concludes it will be unable to exclude the restive region from voting.

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“Then they may become a little more conciliatory and go for a settlement,” he said. “The government is so unpopular in Darfur. They need to do something to moderate their unpopularity.”

Concerns that Darfur might contribute to a delay in the election have pushed the SPLM to take a more active role. Party leader Salva Kiir is expected to make his first tour of the region, and SPLM leaders are preparing their own peace initiative.

“For us the election is an incentive to resolve Darfur,” said Pagan Amum, the party’s secretary-general. He said the SPLM also views Darfur as an electoral prize that could help it win a presidential race. “We think we’ll have sizable support there,” he said.

But the African Union’s Ibok warned that Darfur was not ready for elections because conditions did not allow for the emergence of new Darfur-based political parties and candidates. He said he feared election preparations would overshadow peace talks. “It would be a distraction, which is something we don’t need.”

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edmund.sanders@latimes.com

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