Exit poll indicates Georgia leader’s gamble paying off

Georgian leader Mikheil Saakashvili sent his countrymen to the polls Saturday in a snap presidential election, a risky gamble designed to quiet complaints of creeping authoritarianism and prove the once and would-be future president is still a pro-democracy icon.

With his credibility on the line, Saakashvili abruptly stepped down as president a year and a half ahead of schedule and called for this weekend’s vote as a referendum on his rule. Observers had begun to question whether presidential power was transforming the popular revolutionary into yet another post-Soviet strongman.

Four years ago, Saakashvili was the young, dapper hero of the so-called Rose Revolution who swept into office with nearly 100% popular backing. On Saturday, he was struggling to top 50% of the vote so he could avoid a runoff.

Saakashvili’s political woes became serious in November, when grumbles of disillusionment exploded onto the streets of this capital city and the Georgian police used tear gas and clubs to beat down anti-government demonstrators. Saakashvili further alienated his allies by declaring a state of emergency and silencing an opposition television station.

Early results indicated that Saakashvili had won, but just barely. An exit poll gave him more than 53% of the vote.

Bolstered by the numbers, Saakashvili’s supporters poured into the streets to celebrate. But backers of top opposition candidate Levan Gachechiladze said the numbers were falsified and called for a mass rally today.

“Saakashvili is lying. The exit polls have been falsified,” Gachechiladze told reporters Saturday.

The turmoil and doubt that plagued Georgian voters drew a stark picture of the problematic political choices faced by the former Soviet republics, where remnants of the Cold War linger in a struggle for influence between the West and Russia.

Staunch U.S. ally

A Columbia Law School graduate, the 41-year-old Saakashvili has been a staunch U.S. ally since he led his people into the streets in the Rose Revolution that ousted the unpopular government of President Eduard A. Shevardnadze in 2003 and moved the country away from Moscow’s sphere of influence. Under Saakashvili, Georgia sent thousands of troops to join the U.S.-led war in Iraq, made a hard play for NATO member- ship and named a street in Tbilisi after President Bush. American aides bustled around at his press events in the capital last week.

Georgia’s relations with Russia have deteriorated sharply under Saakashvili, who has charged that his opponents are being manipulated by Moscow.

Voters poured into polling stations Saturday, braving ice and snow, children in tow, shivering in long lines. Many voters said they had never felt so politicized; there was a sense that Georgia’s struggling democracy could rise or fall because of Saturday’s vote. And in a country bitterly divided over Saakashvili, both sides appeared unlikely to accept defeat.

“Anybody but Saakashvili,” said Kukori Sukhiashrili, a 71-year-old retired engineer. “He was a democrat, but he betrayed his ideals.”

Huddled with his wife at a polling station door, the grizzled, bright-eyed Sukhiashrili spoke of the sharp disappointment many Georgians had suffered after they boosted the young Saakashvili to office.

The president has failed the poor, Sukhiashrili said. Watching police attack and gas demonstrators in November was the final straw, he added.

“It was a terrible thing. He poisoned his own people, and the Georgian people will not forgive him,” Sukhiashrili said. “If democratic forces don’t win today, I’ll be the first one to run to the demonstrations.”

But other Georgians said they were nervous about power changing hands. Some agreed with Saakashvili, who has warned that if he leaves office, Georgia could lose all the ground gained under his leadership. Saakashvili ran on promises to ease rampant poverty and steer Georgia toward North Atlantic Treaty Organization membership.

“Our democracy needs to survive. We have too many enemies now to take serious risks,” said Manana Turmanidze, a 50-year-old tour company owner who had wrapped herself in a fur coat and tugged a hat low over her brow to stand in a long line outside a polling station in downtown Tbilisi.

Turmanidze said she had deep reservations about Saakashvili, and spoke with outrage over the closure of the opposition television station, Imedi. But she was even more leery of placing Georgia in the hands of a new leader, she said, especially somebody who might have ties to Moscow. The status quo is better than the unknown, she argued.

“We have to forgive the government now for some of its mistakes,” she said soberly. “And there have been a lot of really, really serious mistakes.”

Justifying crackdown

To justify November’s violent crackdown on protesters, Saakashvili raised the specter of Russian meddling and threats of civil war.

“This is a very tragic situation where we were forced to do things we were not born to do and didn’t want to do at all,” Saakashvili said as he lounged last week on a red leather sofa at his campaign headquarters. “It didn’t look good. It didn’t look good to me, either.”

If Saakashvili captures 50% of the vote or less, Georgia will face a runoff this month, giving the opposition more time to organize itself behind a single candidate -- and denting Saakashvili’s mandate.

Long before November’s street unrest, critics warned of cronyism, dwindling independent media and a cavalier failure to build consensus in Saakashvili’s Georgia.

“The government argument is, ‘We need to act very quickly.’ They talk about a window of opportunity that’s open,” said Tamuna Karosanidze, executive director of Transparency International in Tbilisi. “For them, it’s OK to manipulate the laws, to make certain mistakes. The ends justify the means. But with this kind of attitude, it’s hard to keep control of yourself. How far do you go?”

Complaints grew steadily louder as the elections drew near. Even if the polling was clean, some opposition members grumbled, the election was tainted by dirty tactics from the earliest days of the campaign, when Saakashvili dominated television coverage and unveiled anti-poverty measures likely to boost his popularity. Others threatened to lead street demonstrations in case of ballot fraud.

Intimidation alleged

Election monitors have turned up widespread evidence of voter intimidation heading into the election, according to Karosanidze, whose organization monitored the campaign. From about a third of the country, she said, her group heard reports that public employees were ordered to vote for Saakashvili. Voters were instructed to take photos of their ballots with cellphones, or warned that hidden cameras would document their vote, she said.

“This is a serious problem,” she said. “They really do not have freedom of choice.”

Saakashvili dismissed his critics as Soviet-era elites who were stripped of privilege and embittered by his reforms. He made enemies when he dismissed thousands of police officers in an anti-corruption campaign and tackled painful economic reforms, leading to new taxes and higher electricity bills, he said.

Criticism is the inevitable fallout of fast-paced reform, he said. Under his leadership, the economy has more than doubled, he told reporters. Georgia is also widely acknowledged to have tamed much of its low-level corruption, he noted.

“These are my credentials, not who wrote what criticism in what newspaper,” Saakashvili said. “You are coming to a country that had no streetlights three years ago, that had horrible crime . . . a failed state in every sense of the word.”

megan.stack@latimes.com