Dramas may outdo Leno

Late-night king Jay Leno may be turning from a winner to an also-ran for NBC.

Companies that buy broadcast television time at 10 p.m., when Leno’s new show will air weekdays starting in September, won’t spend as much on him as on his ABC and CBS competition, said Andy Donchin, director of TV ad buying at Carat USA in New York.

“Leno won’t win the time period,” Donchin said. “Advertisers aren’t going to pay the same for Leno as they pay for a 10 o’clock original, prime-time scripted drama.”

The gamble may end badly for the General Electric Co.-owned network if Leno doesn’t draw significantly more viewers than the average 3.7 million who watch his “Tonight Show” at 11:30 p.m., said Peter Gardiner, chief media officer at Interpublic Group of Cos.’ Deutsch Inc.

“NBC is making a decision more about margins and profit and loss than the benefits of ratings,” Gardiner said. “It’s not smart in the long term, but then I don’t have to turn in quarterly budgets to GE.”

NBC, last in broadcast TV prime-time ratings for four years, gave Leno the 10 p.m. slot as part of an effort to cut costs and to prevent the comedian from jumping to Walt Disney Co.’s ABC when Conan O’Brien takes over in June as “Tonight Show” host.

“From a broad ratings standpoint, it’s not going to be a knockout success,” Gardiner said. “From an overall costs and profit standpoint, it’ll be a very good success.”

Leno, 58, wasn’t available for comment.

While one episode of “Law & Order” can cost $3 million to produce, the bill for one hour of comedy and talk is about $350,000, according to NBC.

Leno is “not going to draw the ratings of a blockbuster drama at 10. There’s not much doubt about that,” said Mike Pilot, president of sales for NBC Universal, GE’s entertainment division. “But the consensus reaction of advertisers has been universally positive. They feel that Jay’s style of humor will work at 10.”