South Africa’s future

Sixteen years after the end of apartheid, South Africa is at a crossroads.

The country that was ushered into black majority rule by African National Congress leader Nelson Mandela has held four free and fair national elections since 1994, conducted a pioneering truth-and-reconciliation process, established a respectable multiracial judiciary and maintained a robust free press. The competence and integrity of successive ANC governments have been called into question, but not their fundamental legitimacy. And yet the country’s economic, racial and social problems are grave enough to pose a challenge to its young democratic system, causing many South Africans to wonder whether their nation will fulfill its promise as the continent’s powerhouse. These tensions were reflected in the recent outbursts of the ANC’s youth leader, Julius Malema, who stoked racial tension and party divisions as the country prepared to host the World Cup this month, an event meant to showcase its achievements, not its shortcomings.

Democracy has broken the white minority’s lock on political power, but it has done little to redress the country’s unequal distribution of wealth, one of the worst in the world. A global recession didn’t help, nor did the HIV/AIDS epidemic and rampant crime. Today, most of the poor are black and most whites are better off. Officially, South Africa suffers from 25% unemployment, but unemployment among workers younger than 35 is estimated at 65%.

This explains the appeal of someone like Malema, a populist opportunist who attacks his own party’s policies and calls for nationalizing mining and redistributing white-owned land, even as he flaunts expensive cars and jewelry paid for, in part, by government contracts. Malema came under fire for, among other things, singing the incendiary anti-apartheid song “Shoot the Boer” — a reference to the Afrikaans-speaking whites of South Africa. He has been quieted for now, and would be easy to dismiss if he weren’t tapping into a vein of frustration among poor blacks, and if it weren’t for fears among whites that the country is turning on them as Zimbabwe turned on its whites. As many as 3,000 white farmers have been killed in South Africa since 1994.

South Africa bet that the World Cup would bring investment and tourist dollars, but the recession is cutting into those expectations. The $3 billion the government has invested in the World Cup has created short-term jobs and some useful infrastructure, and also built sports facilities that don’t do much for the economy in the long run. Still, playing host to the world’s most popular monthlong sporting event offers South Africa a chance to shine before the eyes of the world. If South Africa delivers a well-organized World Cup, it is an opportunity to unite in national pride. Then it’s up to President Jacob Zuma to keep racial tensions and party divisions in check, while converting those short-term benefits into investment and jobs.