Rebels without a chance

For many years now, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia — guerrillas who have waged civil war against the government since the 1960s — have been falling behind the times. Living as they do in Colombia’s vast forests, the FARC troops, made up mostly of poor peasants who are given guns, a bit of food and a smattering of pseudo-communist ideology, are often the last to get important updates about world events. For example, several American military contractors who were held hostage by the FARC until their rescue in 2008 recounted their futile efforts to convince their captors that the Panama Canal was no longer in the possession of the United States, or that the real reason for the U.S. embargo of Cuba was not to keep Americans from fleeing there. So it’s not entirely surprising that the FARC seems to have missed a big story that broke last week: the news of its own demise.

Victor Julio Suarez Rojas, the top FARC military commander also known by the aliases Jorge Briceno and Mono Jojoy, was killed Sept. 22 when the Colombian military launched a massive assault on his hide-out in the Macarena mountains, pounding it with bombs dropped from dozens of aircraft and surrounding it with hundreds of troops. Nevertheless, a few days later, in a show of tiresome bravado, the guerrillas issued a statement announcing that despite Suarez’s demise, they would redouble their effort to overthrow the government and would replace their fallen leader.

The Colombian government had a different take. In explaining the importance of the raid to North Americans, President Juan Manuel Santos, who was in New York at the time, likened Suarez to Osama bin Laden. The comparison, although not 100% applicable, nonetheless conveys a sense of the rebel’s elusiveness, his cruel disregard for human life and the outsize terror he struck in ordinary Colombians. Under his leadership, the FARC kidnapped and killed thousands. A hard-liner who joined the FARC at age 12, Suarez was seen by many as incapable of evolving from a brutal military strategist into what the rebels need now: a leader who can negotiate peace. His death, Santos said, heralds “the beginning of the end” for the FARC.

Of course, it can still cause harm. But the Colombian government, backed by U.S. aid, equipment and advisors, has the upper hand in terms of military might and, now, the psychological edge. The FARC has said that it theoretically would be open to resolving the conflict through diplomacy, but it refuses to repudiate violence in the meantime. After last week’s raid, it should be clear that laying down its weapons and releasing its hostages is the only way it can “win.”