Paramount expected to be at top of weekend box-office results

It’s going to be a good weekend at the box office for Paramount Pictures.

The premiere of the studio’s low-budget horror sequel, “Paranormal Activity 2,” is the favorite to be No. 1, people who have seen prerelease surveys predicted. Even if it falls a bit short, however, Paramount can still pop the champagne.

That’s because the other movie gunning for the top spot is the studio’s “Jackass 3D,” which finished first last weekend.

Paramount has accelerated television and online marketing for the new “Paranormal” film recently and has seen interest grow among young moviegoers and particularly Latinos. The picture is expected to sell $25 million to $30 million worth of tickets in the U.S. and Canada.

“Jackass 3D” should take in up to $25 million after its huge $50.4-million opening weekend. Movies that are popular with young males and have a big opening typically see ticket sales fall 60% or more on their second weekends.

But “Jackass” has had very strong weekday grosses. It took in an additional $11.9 million from Monday through Wednesday, an indication that it could hold up better than expected this weekend.

The only other fresh competition in the market is the Clint Eastwood-directed supernatural drama “Hereafter,” which stars Matt Damon and had a solid start in six theaters last weekend. It will play nationwide starting Friday and is expected to take in only about $10 million over its first three days, similar to Eastwood’s 2008 film, “ Changeling,” which also launched in October.

Interest in the film is strongest by far among older adults who already are fans of Eastwood’s movies but don’t always rush out on opening weekend.

The opening looks likely to be a disappointment for distributor Warner Bros., which spent about $50 million on production. That’s more expensive than most of Eastwood’s pictures, largely because of the extensive special effects in “Hereafter.”

“Paranormal 2,” meanwhile, should be very profitable for Paramount if it opens as expected. Cast entirely with unknown actors and shot in just one location, the movie cost only about $3 million to produce.

However, the film has presented a unique marketing challenge for Paramount. The first film was a hit in large part because of the word-of-mouth that steadily spread after the movie opened in midnight shows in a small number of cities.

For the sequel, the studio has attempted to maintain the independent, viral feel of the original while still launching it in a traditional manner across the nation at once.

Given the intense interest among young horror fans, “Paranormal 2” is expected to have a very good start in its first shows at midnight Thursday night. It could fall off quickly after that, however, if the buzz is not good. Paramount has not screened the film for critics.

Lately, horror films have not scared too many people into the box office. Recent disappointments include “My Soul to Take,” “Case 39” and “Devil.”

ben.fritz@latimes.com