Poll Analysis: Prop. 227 Remains Strong; Support Slips for Prop. 226

In the absence of a strong campaign against it, Prop. 227 appears to be coasting toward victory on election day. There has been no change in the high level of support for the English-only initiative since it was last measured in April. Prop. 226, the union dues measure, however, has taken a hit. Support has dropped precipitously since opponents of the measure launched a paid media campaign against it. Down-ballot races have yet to catch the attention of the electorate and most voters remain undecided.
     With just over one week until the June 2 primary election, Prop. 227, a measure that would essentially end bilingual education in public schools throughout the state, continues to hold a high level of support according to a recent Los Angeles Times poll. Despite a recently launched--but limited--television advertising campaign against the measure (and no televised media campaign by its proponents) nearly two-thirds of voters would vote yes to pass the measure if the election were held today. Unlike Prop. 227, Prop. 226, which would require unions to get permission from members before using union dues for political purposes, has lost significant support. This decline reflects the barrage of advertising by opponents of the measure.
     Voters have heard little from candidates for down-ballot races. As a result, with less than two weeks before they will be asked to decide California's next leaders, most voters remain uncertain about for whom they will cast their vote on June 2 and most races remain wide open.

Prop. 227: The English language in public schools initiative

     Prop. 227 continues to receive strong and broad-based support among the California electorate as a whole and among voters most likely to turn out to vote on June 2. When voters were first asked their opinion of Prop. 227 and told only that it "deals with teaching English language in public schools," 38% of registered voters and 44% of likely voters said they would vote in favor of the measure and just 17% of registered voters and 19% of likely voters said they would oppose it. The remaining 45% of registered and 37% of likely voters were uncertain. This result has changed little from one month ago when a Times poll found that 33% of registered voters and 40% of likely voters favored the measure, 12% of registered voters and 13% of likely voters opposed it and 55% of registered voters and 47% of likely voters were uncertain.
     After hearing the ballot language, support rises dramatically, with 63% of both registered and likely voters now saying they will vote for the measure. Just 25% of registered voters and 23% of likely voters would oppose it (the remaining 12% and 14%, respectively, were uncertain). Again, there was little change from one month ago when 63% of registered and likely voters said they would vote in favor of Prop. 227 and 24% of registered and 23% of likely voters said they would vote against it (13% and 14%, respectively, were uncertain at that time). If opponents of Prop. 227 fail to get out their messages against the measure in the short period of time remaining in the campaign, Prop. 227 will most likely pass on election day.
     Prop. 227 continues to draw support across party lines, with 61% of registered Democrats, 59% of independents and 66% of Republicans saying they would vote in favor of Prop. 227 after hearing the ballot language. There has been a slight increase in opposition among registered Democrats and independents, although support remains solid. There was little difference between registered and likely Democrats and Republicans (there were too few likely independent voters for analysis).Support is also strong regardless of ideology, with 50% of registered liberals, 71% of moderates and 66% of conservatives supporting the measure after hearing the ballot language. Moderates have shown the greatest increase in support, up 11 points from 60% one month ago. Liberals have shown the greatest decline, dropping from 61% in April to 50% in the current survey, with their opposition increasing from 27% to 39%. Liberals most likely to vote on election day show an even lower level of support, with 44% saying they will vote in favor of the measure and 45% saying they will oppose it. There was little difference among moderates and conservatives between those most likely to vote and all registered voters.
     The English-only measure receives similarly high levels of support among men and women registered and likely voters. More educated voters show a greater level of opposition, albeit with a still high level of support.
     Latino support for Prop. 227 has actually increased from one month ago. In the current poll, 62% of registered Latinos said they would support the measure--up 12 points from 50% in April (64% of registered whites and 65% of likely white voters support Prop. 227 in the current survey). Latinos most likely to vote are only slightly less supportive of the measure. The increase in support among Latinos goes against the trend seen with Prop. 187 and Prop. 209 where Latino support declined as election day drew near. There are a number of potential reasons for the sustained Latino support. First, Prop. 227 has failed to generate the level of attention that either Prop. 187 or Prop. 209 garnered. As a result voters have less information and the measure has received less scrutiny. Furthermore, improving education is universally appealing to voters, regardless of race. Many Latinos may see this measure as making positive change in their children's education and providing new and better alternatives.
     A majority of voters in favor of Prop. 227 said that they support the measure because they believe you need to speak English if you live in the United States. Fifty-seven percent of registered voters and 55% of likely voters gave this response as one of the top two reasons why they are voting in favor of the Unz initiative. Another 11% of registered and 10% of likely voters said they would support the measure because they prefer English immersion programs over bilingual education, 12% of registered voters and 15% of likely voters would vote yes because they believe bilingual education hurts students who are not fluent in English and 10% of registered voters and 15% of likely voters are voting for the measure because they believe bilingual education is not effective.
     Opponents of the measure cite a diverse set of reasons as well, but no one reason overwhelms the others. Fourteen percent of registered and likely voters oppose the measure because they believe it costs too much. Another 13% of registered and 10% of likely voters believe non-English speaking students will fall behind if this measure passes, and 12% of registered and 13% of likely voters believe the measure is discriminatory. Just 13% of registered voters and 10% of likely voters said they were opposing Prop. 227 because they believe bilingual education works.

Prop. 226: The political contributions by union members initiative

     Unlike Prop. 227, proponents and opponents of Prop. 226 have launched strong and sustained paid media campaigns to move voters to their respective corners. The "no campaign" advertising appears to be driving down the vote from the levels seen in the last Times poll in April. If the opponents of Prop. 226 continue with this rate of success, the measure has a good chance of being defeated on June 2.
     In the April Times poll, 76% of registered voters and 71% of likely voters were not familiar enough with Prop. 226 to give an opinion when first asked about the measure. In the recent poll, just 48% of registered and 38% of likely voters remain unfamiliar. Of those who knew enough to give an opinion, registered voters oppose the measure by nearly 2 to 1 (33% against and 19% in favor). Among likely voters, 25% would vote in favor of the Prop. 226 and 37% would oppose it. After hearing the ballot language, support increased but opposition did not: 47%-38% among registered voters and 51%-37% among likely voters. However, one month ago, after hearing the ballot language, the result was far more lopsided--65% voting yes to 24% voting no among registered voters and 66% to 26% among likely voters.
     Poll results suggest that advertising by the opponents of Prop. 226 is impacting voters more than the ads of its backers. In the unaided question, where voters are asked to state their opinion of the measure based on their current knowledge, Prop. 226 fails among those who were able to give an opinion. After voters hear the ballot language, opposition does not increase from the unaided question, but support rises 28 points among registered voters and 26 points among likely voters. This may suggest that the proponents' advertising is not drawing in voters to the same degree as the opponents' advertising. Effective ballot language may sway the undecided voters--but does not convert voters who had already made up their minds before hearing the ballot summary. If the no campaign continues to get out its message, it could drive opposition to above 50% and hold it there despite the well-received ballot language.
     Support for Prop. 226 is stronger among registered independents (61%-32%) and Republicans (57%-28%) than Democrats (37%-45%). Support is even stronger among those Republicans most likely to vote on election day (65%-21%) and slightly weaker with likely Democratic voters: 35%-52% (there were not enough likely independent voters for analysis). The measure is also stronger with registered moderates (52%-36%) and conservatives (49%-31%) than liberals (39%-51%). Among likely voters, support drops slightly among liberals and moderates, but increases among conservatives most likely to vote (64%-23%).
     Registered voters making under $20,000 a year in household income are more opposed to the measure (37%-44%) than those with higher incomes. Older voters are also more likely to oppose the measure than younger voters. The measure receives support from only 36% of registered voters 65 years of age or older (45% opposed) and 42% of likely voters in this same age group (41% opposed). Support is 10 points higher or more among the other age groups. Support is also lower among registered Latinos (34%-44%) than whites (51%-36%). Results by race were similar among likely voters.
     Prop. 226 is said to aim at reducing the influence of unions in political campaigns. Picking up on this and possibly reflecting a get-out-the-vote and targeted communication campaign, union members are less supportive of Prop. 226 than non-members. Thirty-six percent of union members who are registered to vote said they would vote yes on Prop. 226 and 53% said they would oppose it. The result is almost the reverse among non-union members, 50% in favor and 34% opposed. Union members showed one of the greatest drops in support of all subgroups from the April poll. In April, 58% of union members said they would vote in favor of Prop. 226 and just 28% said they would oppose it. Therefore, support dropped by 22 points among union members. Clearly messages against Prop. 226 are resonating with union members--as well as other voters.
     More than half of voters in favor of the Prop. 226 said one of the top two reasons they are supporting the measure is because it prevents unions from taking money from members without consent (56% among registered voters and 60% among likely voters). Another 30% of registered voters and 33% of likely voters said they would vote yes because it prevents employers from taking money from employees without consent. Twelve percent of registered and 14% of likely voters said they are supporting the measure because it prohibits political contributions to state and local candidates from foreign nations or foreign corporations. The highest proportion of voters opposed to Prop. 226 said they are opposing it because it takes power away from unions and unions need to be protected (28% among registered and 32% among likely). Another 22% of registered and 17% of likely said they are opposing it for no one particular reason--that they just don't like it.
     Union members are more likely to oppose the measure because it would take power away from unions, with 38% giving this response. Non-members were more likely to say they have no specific reason for opposing the measure, with 21% giving this response. Just six percent of union members could not name a specific reason. Seven out of 10 union members who support the measure are doing so because they want to prevent unions from taking money from members without their permission.
     Support for Prop. 226 may be undermined by the finding that most voters do not believe that unions have too much influence. Just 27% of registered voters and 31% of likely voters feel this way. Thirty-nine percent of registered voters and 35% of likely voters think unions have the right amount of power and 17% and 19%, respectively, believe unions have too little influence. Even among voters who think unions have too much influence, just 52% support the measure and 31% oppose it. Voters who think unions have too little power oppose the measure 51% to 42% and those who think union influence is at about the right level are more divided in their view of Prop. 226 (48% in favor and 39% opposed).

Prop. 223: The school spending on administration

initiative
     The vast majority of voters are unfamiliar with Prop. 223, a measure that would require that no more than five percent of school funds be spent on administration, leaving 95% for the classroom. Seventy-six percent of registered voters and 70% of likely voters said they did not know enough about this measure to give an opinion when first asked about it in an unaided question. After hearing the ballot language, 42% of registered voters said they would support the measure and 33% said they would oppose it, with 25% uncertain. Likely voters were more divided, with 40% saying they would support the measure, 38% saying they would oppose it and 22% remaining uncertain. Support is down from one month ago when 49% of registered voters and 55% of likely voters said they would vote in favor of the measure after hearing the same ballot language. The recently aired No on 223 television advertising may have influenced the decline in support.
     Prop. 223 garners greater support from registered independents (49%-33%) and Republicans (49%-28%) than Democrats (36%-36%). Prop. 223 is also stronger with moderates (49%-31%) and conservatives (46%-29%) than liberals (29%-45%). Among likely voters, moderates were more evenly divided (44%-40%) and the gap narrowed among conservatives (43%-34%). Voters with a college education--the most educated subgroup--were more likely to oppose the measure (36%-46%) than those with some college (48%-31%) and those with a high school diploma or less (43%-25%). Among likely voters, more highly educated voters continued to show greater opposition to the proposition. Latino and lower income voters are undecided in higher proportions.

Contests for statewide office

     Voters will face a long list of names on the ballot for each statewide office in California's first open/blanket primary. While the gubernatorial and U.S. Senate challengers are making themselves known through paid media, most voters have not heard from or about candidates for down-ballot races. As a result, voters are largely undecided in down-ballot contests.
     Sixty-one percent of registered voters and 55% of likely voters are still undecided in the race for lieutenant governor--a number that has not changed significantly from one month ago when 64% of registered voters and 57% of likely voters were undecided. Fifty-seven percent of registered voters and 51% of likely voters are also undecided in the race for attorney general. One month ago, 64% of registered voters and 60% of likely voters were uncertain who would get their vote--not a significant change. Approximately half of likely and registered voters are undecided in the race for treasurer, as they were one month ago. Even races where incumbents are seeking re-election and only one candidate from each party is running, pluralities of voters have yet to make up their minds and very little has changed from one month ago: 40% of registered and 32% of likely voters are undecided in the race for controller between incumbent Democrat Kathleen Connell and her Republican challenger Ruben Barrales; 39% of registered and 33% of likely voters are uncertain in the race for secretary of state between incumbent Republican Bill Jones and his Democratic challenger Michela Alioto; and 59% of registered and 52% of likely voters are uncertain in the race for superintendent of public instruction between incumbent Delaine Eastin and her challenger Gloria Matta Tuchman. Thirty-eight percent of registered voters and 28% of likely voters are uncertain in the race for insurance commissioner, where Republican Chuck Quackenbush faces two Democratic opponents. Given the high levels of uncertainty, all of these races are essentially up for grabs as voters sort through the long list of names between now and election day.
     In the race for lieutenant governor, Republican candidate and businesswoman Noel Irwin Hentschel has failed to significantly raise her support despite investing in television advertising. Her share of the vote increased only marginally, from two percent among registered voters and one percent among likely voters in April to four percent among registered and five percent among likely voters today. Former Assembly Speaker Cruz Bustamante (who recently began airing commercials) continues to lead his Democratic challenger, former Deputy Secretary of State Tony Miller, and the field overall. He receives 15% of the vote among registered voters and 19% among likely voters compared to Miller's eight percent of registered voters and six percent of likely voters. Republican State Senator Tim Leslie receives six percent of the vote from both groups, and Republican State Senator Richard Mountjoy receives six percent of the vote among registered voters and nine percent among likely voters. These numbers are virtually unchanged from one month ago.
     In the contest for Attorney General, Democrat and former State Senate President Bill Lockyer is the only candidate to have bought television advertising on a wide scale at the time this survey began. The decision appears to have paid off. Lockyer receives the support of 19% of registered voters and 27% of likely voters, up from 10% of registered voters and 13% of likely voters one month ago. His Democratic opponents have not moved, with former U.S. Rep. Lynn Schenk receiving six percent of the vote among registered voters and three percent from likely voters and State Senator Charles Calderon receiving five percent among registered voters and four percent among likely voters. The Republican candidates have not made gains either. Former Deputy Attorney General Dave Stirling receives nine percent of the vote among registered voters and 10% among likely voters and Orange County District Attorney Mike Capizzi receives four percent of the vote among registered voters and five percent among likely voters.
     Former Democratic state party chairman Phil Angelides leads the pack in the contest for treasurer, with 25% of the vote among registered voters and 27% among likely voters--unchanged from last month. As the only major Democratic contender, he is virtually assured a berth in the general election. In the race for the Republican nomination, Assemblyman Jan Goldsmith is out front of fellow Assemblyman Curt Pringle, 19% to seven percent among registered voters and 15% to nine percent among likely voters.
     Neither Connell nor Barrales faces a serious contender from within their parties in the race for state controller, and therefore, will face off again in November. The incumbent Connell currently leads Barrales, 39% to 20% among registered voters and 41% to 26% among likely voters--virtually unchanged from one month ago.
     Incumbent Secretary of State Jones is in a dead heat with Democrat Alioto. As in the race for state controller, neither of these candidates has major party opposition and will almost definitely win their parties' nomination. Thirty-one percent of registered voters are planning to cast their vote for Jones and 30% for Alioto. Jones pulls away slightly when looking at likely voters, winning 36% of the vote to Alioto's 30%.
     In the non-partisan race for state superintendent of public instruction, incumbent Eastin leads Matta Tuchman 27% to 13% among registered voters and 31% to 16% among likely voters. Many voters may be undecided in this race because party affiliation identifiers do not appear on the ballot and voters are denied this often-used cue.
     Incumbent Quackenbush fares no better than other incumbents, receiving just 31% of the vote in his effort to win re-election as insurance commissioner among registered voters and 41% among likely voters. As the only major Republican candidate he is virtually assured his party's nomination. In the race for the Democratic nomination, Diane Martinez has a slight lead over Hal Brown, 19% to 11% among registered voters and 18% to 12% among likely voters.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,514 California adults, including 1,097 registered voters and 506 likely voters, by telephone May 16 though 20. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and registration. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample and registered voters is plus or minus three percentage points; for likely voters it is 5 points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish.